Dustin Poirier (left) is favored over Conor McGregor (right) in the UFC 264 odds.

UFC 264 Odds & Predictions: McGregor vs Poirier 3

The UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for the first time in 16 months for a big event. UFC 264 is headlined by the trilogy match between the promotion’s biggest star, Conor McGregor, and Dustin Poirier.

In that big main event, the McGregor vs Poirier 3 odds are currently set with Poirier the betting favorite over McGregor.

McGregor has been very inactive of late, with this being just his fourth fight since the start of 2017, and he holds a 1-2 record in his last three, including the knockout loss to Poirier in January.

Poirier avenged his 2014 defeat to McGregor with his victory at UFC 257 and looks to close that chapter and return to a title fight with another statement win over the Irishman.

UFC 264 Odds: McGregor vs Poirier 3

Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released the UFC 264 odds with Dustin Poirier holding -120 odds and Conor McGregor coming back at +100. This means you would have to wager $120 to profit $100 with a Poirier win, while a $100 bet on a McGregor victory would profit you $100.

Looking at the UFC 264 odds for McGregor vs Poirier 3, our sports betting calculator tells us that Poirier’s odds of -120 represent an implied win probability of 54.55 percent while McGregor’s +100 odds have an implied win probability of 50.00 percent.

The largest favorite in the UFC 264 odds is in the Sportsbook fight of the main card with Sean O’Malley (-900) favored over UFC newcomer Kris Moutinho (+550).

The tightest UFC 264 betting line comes in the middleweight prelim fight with Dricus Du Plessis (-115) slightly favored over Trevin Giles (-105).

UFC 264 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC 264 Betting Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight – Conor McGregor (+100) vs Dustin Poirier (-120)
  • Welterweight – Gilbert Burns (+140) vs Stephen Thompson (-170)
  • Heavyweight – Tai Tuivasa (-140) vs Greg Hardy (+115)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Irene Aldana (-120) vs Yana Kunitskaya (+100)
  • Bantamweight – Sean O’Malley (-900) vs Kris Moutinho (+550)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Carlos Condit (+160) vs Max Griffin (-200)
  • Welterweight – Niko Price (+135) vs Michel Pereira (-165)
  • Middleweight – Trevin Giles (-105) vs Dricus Du Plessis (-115)
  • Featherweight – Ryan Hall (+190) vs Ilia Topuria (-240)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Jennifer Maia (-200) vs Jessica Eye (+160)
  • Middleweight – Omari Akhmedov (+140) vs Brad Tavares (-170)
  • Flyweight – Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-350) vs Jerome Rivera (+265)
  • Middleweight – Hu Yaozong (+115) vs Alen Amedovski (-140)

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UFC 264: McGregor vs Poirier 3 Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: July 10, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 3 Odds & Prediction

Conor McGregor +100
Dustin Poirier-120

The “Notorious” Conor McGregor (+100) looks to avoid his first-ever losing streak and return to the win column for the first time in 19 months. Meanwhile, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (-120) eyes a third straight victory since he lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov in September 2019.

McGregor: Need to Knows
  • McGregor has struggled a little bit since leaving the featherweight division, sporting a 3-3 record at the higher weight classes, including a 1-2 record as a lightweight. However, his record is still a brilliant 22-5, with 19 of his wins being knockouts. Each of his losses has been a stoppage, including one knockout defeat.
  • Evident in his record, Notorious primarily looks for a standup battle, averaging less than one takedown per 15 minutes. On the feet, he averages 5.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.54. Additionally, he stuffs only 67 percent of takedown attempts.
  • The southpaw has exceptional timing and footwork. His knowledge of range and distance often traps his opponents and forces them to rush in on him, where he meets them with a well-placed left straight that ends the night.
  • The biggest concerns for McGregor for this fight are the leg kicks that damaged him badly in the last fight with Poirier and his conditioning, which has always been in question. He did hurt Poirier in the first round in January, specifically his sharp right hand, not the left.
  • McGregor’s last three fights were Khabib Nurmagomedov (loss – submission), Donald Cerrone (win – knockout) and Dustin Poirier (loss – knockout).
Poirier: Need to Knows
  • While McGregor has had some struggles at lightweight, Poirier has been the opposite, holding an 11-2 record with a no contest since moving up from featherweight. His record stands at 27-6 with 20 stoppage victories (13 knockouts and seven submissions) while he’s been stopped four times (two knockouts, two submissions).
  • The Diamond is a very well-rounded mixed martial artist, with the ability to compete effectively wherever the fight goes. He averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes while in the striking department he averages 5.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.17.
  • He fights well in so many different positions. At range, he has strong leg kicks, the demise of McGregor in January. In boxing range, he has good head movement and is game to go shot for shot, while his grappling is no joke either.
  • The longer this fight goes, the more the pendulum swings in favor of the Diamond. However, he has to make sure he doesn’t throw blind leg kicks simply because he had success in the last fight, as McGregor could counter and shut his lights off.
  • Poirier’s last three fights were Khabib Nurmagomedov (loss – submission), Dan Hooker (win – unanimous decision) and Conor McGregor (win – knockout).

For more on this fight, see the McGregor vs Poirier 3 odds analysis article.

Prediction: Conor McGregor (+100) via knockout

Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Odds & Prediction

Gilbert Burns+140
Stephen Thompson-170

After losing to Kamaru Usman for the welterweight championship in February, Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (+140) looks to rebound and get back to his winning ways. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (-170) was 0-1-1 in his two attempts at winning UFC gold but after back-to-back wins, a win over Burns could get him a third attempt at the belt.

Burns: Need to Knows
  • Prior to his defeat to Usman, Burns was on a six-fight winning streak. He is now 19-4 and 14 of his wins are finishes (six knockouts, eight submissions), while two of the defeats are knockout losses.
  • He is a dangerous fighter wherever  the fight is played out. He averages 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and he has high-level submission skills on the floor. On the feet, he is a little wild with big powerful strikes that can knock out his opponents.
  • Durinho is fairly aggressive and he can have this approach because he’s not worried about getting taken down due to his submission skills. His all-out attack can lead to him getting tired, though, and his defensive skills aren’t strong enough to hold up when he’s exhausted.
  • Burns’s last three fights were Demian Maia (win – knockout), Tyron Woodley (win – unanimous decision) and Kamaru Usman (loss – knockout).
Thompson: Need to Knows
  • Thompson had a couple of rough years in which he posted a 1-3-1 record, though he had a seven-fight winning streak prior to that rough patch. Overall, he holds a 16-4-1 record, having only been knocked out once while knocking out seven opponents.
  • Wonderboy is a karate fighter and really has no interest in hitting the mats. In his 16 UFC fights, only six had takedowns and he hasn’t landed one since 2015. Additionally, he stuffs 78 percent of attempts against him.
  • He has incredible footwork and conditioning, averaging 4.24 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.80. In his last two fights combined, Thompson has landed 309 significant strikes while absorbing only 162.
  • Thompson has a great jab and powerful straights when his opponents close the distance. His kicks at long range are accurate and are a good tool to maintain distance, which gives him more time to read his opponents when they look to engage with him.
  • Thompson’s last three fights were Anthony Pettis (loss – knockout), Vicente Luque (win – unanimous decision) and Geoff Neal (win – knockout).

Prediction: Stephen Thompson (-170) via decision

Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy Odds & Prediction

Tai Tuivasa-140
Greg Hardy+115

Following a three-fight losing skid, Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (-140) now eyes a three-fight winning streak after picking up back-to-back first-round knockouts heading into this bout. Conversely, Greg “The Prince of War” Hardy (+115) comes in on the heels of his first knockout loss, at the hands of Marcin Tybura in December.

Tuivasa: Need to Knows
  • Those three fights that Tuivasa lost from 2018 into 2020 are the only defeats on his record. He comes into this fight sporting an 11-3 record with 10 of his wins by knockout. He has one knockout loss, one submission loss and a decision defeat as well.
  • Bam Bam has power in everything he throws, with big leg kicks at distance before letting his heavy hands fly. He has a big overhand right that he throws in the pocket and typically he dips his head and throws the right hand as he lunges in to close the distance.
  • Tuivasa needs this approach as he only has a 75-inch reach. Also, don’t look for him to go for a takedown, having not secured one over his first eight UFC bouts.
  • Tuivasa’s last three fights were Sergei Spivac (loss – submission), Stefan Struve (win – knockout) and Harry Hunsucker (win – knockout).
Hardy: Need to Knows
  • Hardy is looking to avoid his first-ever losing streak, having consecutive wins following his losses thus far. He enters this bout 7-3 with six knockouts and one knockout loss.
  • The former NFL Pro Bowl defensive end continues to improve every time he enters the cage. He is a big heavyweight at six-foot-five, weighs in at the maximum 265 pounds and has an 80-inch reach.
  • The Prince of War has added leg kicks to his repertoire to go along with a good long jab and his extremely powerful right hand. His offensive grappling has improved, though he’s a fish out of water when taken down.
  • Hardy’s last three fights were Yorgan De Castro (win – unanimous decision), Maurice Greene (win – knockout) and Marcin Tybura (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Greg Hardy (+115) via decision

Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya Odds & Prediction

Irene Aldana-120
Yana Kunitskaya+100

Yana Kunitskaya (+100) returns to the Octagon for the second time this year as she eyes her first three-fight winning streak in nine years, coming off back-to-back impressive decision wins. Meanwhile, Irene Aldana (-120) faltered in her attempt at a three-fight winning streak in her last appearance, getting outclassed by former champion Holly Holm.

Aldana: Need to Knows
  • Aldana has lost consecutive fights only once in her career and that came four years ago. Her record overall is 12-6 with nine stoppage victories (six knockouts, three submissions) and she’s been knocked out twice but not since 2015.
  • The Mexican has secured only two takedowns over her nine-fight UFC career, much rather trying her hand on the feet. She has a high output of 5.52 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5.97 and she only lands 38 percent of her strike attempts.
  • She has long legs and uses them well to keep her opponents at bay before letting her hands fly. Aldana had a hard time tracking Holm and cutting off the cage, rather following her and walking into strikes. She is much better as a counter fighter as opposed to being the aggressor.
  • Aldana’s last three fights were Vanessa Melo (win – unanimous decision), Ketlen Vieira (win – knockout) and Holly Holm (loss – unanimous decision).
Kunitskaya: Need to Knows
  • Kunitskaya had a tough debut in the UFC taking on Cris Cyborg at featherweight but since then has gone 4-1 at bantamweight. She is now 14-5 overall with one no contest. She has eight finishes among her wins, including seven knockouts, while four of her losses have been stoppages (two knockouts, two submissions).
  • She is more of a grappler than Aldana, averaging 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes, but the Russian’s approach is more on the feet. She averages 4.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.62.
  • Over Kunitskaya’s last two fights combined, she landed 90 significant strikes while absorbing just 13. She has good kicks at distance, really loading up on them, and she likes to hold her foes against the cage and batter them with knees and short strikes.
  • Kunitskaya’s last three fights were Aspen Ladd (loss – knockout), Julija Stoliarenko (win – unanimous decision) and Ketlen Vieira (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Yana Kunitskaya (+100) via decision

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Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho Odds & Prediction

Sean O’Malley-900
Kris Moutinho+550

After original opponent Louis Smolka pulled out, “Sugar” Sean O’Malley (-900) called for any opponent so that he could get back on a winning streak following a knockout win in March. Ready to make his UFC debut in a big way is Kris Moutinho (+550), who has won his last two fights by stoppage.

O’Malley: Need to Knows
  • The Sugar show has been extremely entertaining as he has earned performance bonuses in four of his last five fights. O’Malley’s record stands at 13-1 with 10 stoppage victories, including nine knockouts.
  • He is a big bantamweight at five-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach and is an extremely creative and explosive striker. He averages 6.31 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.28.
  • Sugar throws a variety of strikes and is always reading his opponents’ movements before going for the knockout shot. He has solid kicks and exceptional accuracy when he throws his strikes. O’Malley continually switches stances and keeps his foes guessing.
  • O’Malley’s last three fights were Eddie Wineland (win – knockout), Marlon Vera (loss – knockout) and Thomas Almeida (win – knockout).
Moutinho: Need to Knows
  • Moutinho’s career has been filled with streaks, winning a handful of fights followed by short losing skids. His record sits at 9-4 with all four of his losses being stoppages (two knockouts, two submissions). Meanwhile, four of his wins have been stoppages, three by knockout and one by submission.
  • The southpaw chips away with kicks at range before lunging forward with a flurry of punches. He does a good job throwing straight punches but lacks true power.
  • At times, he gets into the pocket trying to get into a war but lacks a lot of head movement, leaving him vulnerable to eating big shots.
  • Moutinho’s last three fights were Johnny Campbell (loss – knockout), Ashiek Ajim (win – knockout) and Andrew Salas (win – submission).

Prediction: Sean O’Malley (-900) via knockout

UFC 264: McGregor vs Poirier 3 Best Bets

Conor McGregor +100
Stephen Thompson-170
Greg Hardy+115
Yana Kunitskaya+100
Sean O’Malley-900
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