Let's ring in the new year with some hot takes.
From award candidates to team breakouts and busts, here are my five bold predictions for what 2024 will bring to the baseball world:
1. The Rays Finally Flop
I hate betting against the Rays. Fans and oddsmakers always seem to count them out, and they always seem to find a way to defy expectations. So, this prediction is certainly going to be wrong.
But, nonetheless, I'm predicting 2024 is when the Tampa Bay Rays finally falter. I'm not talking barely miss the playoffs, I'm saying under 78 wins and out of it in early September.
My big question here comes with the rotation. Zach Eflin is a stud at the top and I liked the Ryan Pepiot add, but with Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs all set to miss the beginning of the 2024 season, and Shane Baz out all year, there isn't much depth there. On the offensive side, the Rays are almost sure to be without Wander Franco next year (maybe forever) and there have been rumours about a Randy Arozarena trade, too. If you take those two bats away, I'm not sure the Rays pack much of an offensive punch, either. It doesn't help that they're set to play in a loaded AL East again, with the O's, Yankees, and Jays all still in serious contention.
I'm sure the Rays will still find a way to Rays there way to victories. But I see a lot of potential downside in Tampa Bay in 2024.
2. Pablo Lopez Wins Cy Young
Pablo Lopez finished seventh in 2023 AL Cy Young voting, so predicting a win for him this year isn't the hottest take in the world. But, I feel fairly confident about it.
He's quietly been one of the best starters in baseball over the last four years, rocking a 3.57 ERA (3.43 FIP) across his last 534 innings. But, in 2023 with the Twins, Lopez took it to another level, striking out 10.9 batters per nine and reaching nearly 200 innings.
He's become nearly a perfect starter, striking out many, walking few, keeping the ball in the yard, and hauling hefty innings. With some tweaks to his pitch usage and four-seam fastball last year, the big righty saw his strikeout rate jump six percent and his barrel rate nearly halve. I mean, just look at Lopez's Baseball Savant page. That's more red than a flower shop on Valentine's Day, and clearly the makings of a Cy Young candidate:
Lopez currently sits fourth in AL Cy odds, with a +1200 line to take the award.
3. Ohtani Still Wins NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani currently sits fourth in NL MVP odds, behind Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and his Dodgers teammates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. But, at +1000 to take the MVP, I think the $700-million man might be the best value around.
Sure, Ohtani isn't going to pitch for the Dodgers next year. But he's still got plenty of MVP potential at the plate. Ronald Acuna Jr., the clear 2023 NL MVP, had one of the best offensive seasons we've seen in a while. But, if you compare Ohtani's 160-game pace (had he not pitched or got hurt), it's right there with Acuna's '23. That's not even taking into account the potential for Ohtani to be even better just focusing on hitting next year, and not tiring after start days.
| Stat | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | OPS | SB | oWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohtani (160 Game Pace) | 52 | 113 | .304 | .412 | 1.066 | 20 | 7.1 |
| Acuna Jr. | 41 | 106 | .337 | .416 | 1.012 | 73 | 8.5 |
Ohtani will have to be far-and-away the best player in the NL to win the MVP award next season, considering he's playing for what many see as a super team. But, I see no reason why he won't do exactly that.
4. Brewers Blow It Up
The Milwaukee Brewers will be the big tear down of 2024.
We've already started to see the Brewers make moves toward the future, trading SP Adrian Houser to the Mets for prospects and locking down top youngster Jackson Chourio to a long-term extension before he ever plays an MLB game.
In 2024, the selloff really begins. I'm not sure if it'll happen in the remainder of this offseason or during the regular season, but I expect most or all of Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, and Devin Williams to find new homes. It'll be a tough selloff for Brewers fans to stomach, after seven-straight years of staying in-and-around the playoffs, but it should set up the new era — the Chourio era — for success.
5. DBacks Do It Again
After sneaking into the playoffs, the Arizona Diamondbacks went on a dream run to the 2023 World Series. They ultimately fell short at the final stage, but with some great moves so far this offseason, I like Arizona's chances to run it back.
The DBacks have added a legit SP3 in Eduardo Rodriguez, traded for some pop at third base in Eugenio Suarez, and brought Lourdes Gurriel Jr. back as a LF/bench bat option. It doesn't sound like the Snakes are done yet, either, as Jeff Passan reports they're looking to add a DH, as well. Maybe a reunion with J.D. Martinez or Evan Longoria finishes off the offseason, or another big bat like Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Belt, or Justin Turner comes in. Regardless, the DBacks took a good team and seemingly rounded out the edges even more this winter.
Eduardo Rodriguez and the Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly in agreement on a multi-year deal. pic.twitter.com/WMJT4VdECB
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 7, 2023
Arizona enters the 2024 season 14th in World Series odds at +3500. There's also a sneaky little bet I like for an NL West team to win the World Series at +290. That gives us hope with the DBacks, Dodgers, Padres, and maybe even the Giants if they rattle off a miracle run.
