MLB HR Derby Odds 2023

2023 Home Run Derby Odds: Why Vladdy Jr. Can Win

No doubt, the MLB Home Run Derby is the highlight of baseball’s All-Star Week. 

This year's Derby will go down on Monday, July 10th at T-Mobile Part in Seattle (a day before the MLB All-Star Game). Below, we'll break down the field, the HR Derby Odds, and a value pick to win the competition:

Who Will Participate in the 2023 HR Derby?

The entire 2023 MLB Home Run Derby is confirmed:

  • Adley Rutschman, Orioles C
  • Julio Rodriguez, Mariners OF
  • Mookie Betts, Dodgers OF
  • Pete Alonso, Mets 1B
  • Randy Arozarena, Rays OF
  • Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays 1B
  • Adolis Garcia, Rangers OF
  • Luis Robert Jr., White Sox OF

Odds To win the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby

2023 Home Run Derby Odds
PlayerOdds To Win
Pete Alonso+300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+375
Julio Rodriguez+450
Luis Robert Jr.+500
Adolis Garcia+650
Randy Arozarena+950
Mookie Betts+1000
Adley Rutschman+1600

Odds as of July 10th, 2023

You should probably bet on Pete Alonso to win the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby. The slugging New York Mets first baseman has won two of the last three events and is back for another crown this year.

It doesn’t really matter what Alonso is doing during regular MLB games, because he brings a separate mentality to the homer derby. But if you care, he’s been amazing this season at the plate, too — at least in the power department. Alonso has 25 homers in the first half of the season, posting a 53-homer pace for a 162-game season.

Best HR Derby Value: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +375

Much has been made about Vlad's lack of power this year, as he's only on pace for ~25 homers.

But, the thing about Vlad is his 2023 'struggles' have been due to swing decisions, not a lack of pop. He's getting burned by sinkers in and sliders away. When he gets a fastball in the zone, the Blue Jays slugger doesn't miss. Thankfully for Vladdy, he won't see any sinkers or sliders in the HR Derby. It's ALL batting practice pitches exactly where he wants them — and Guerrero Jr. still crushes those as well as anyone in baseball.

2023 Home Run Derby Prop Bets

Longest Home Run Distance
MarketOdds To Win
OVER 489.5 Feet-120
UNDER 389.5 Feet-110
Most Homers In Round 1
MarketOdds To Win
Vlad Guerrero Jr.+280
Julio Rodriguez+350
Pete Alonso+475
Player To Hit Longest HR
MarketOdds To Win
Vlad Guerrero Jr.+190
Luis Robert Jr.+325
Pete Alonso+325

2023 Home Run Derby Format

The derby is a three-round, single-elimination layout where batters have three minutes to hit as many homers as they can in the first two rounds and two minutes in the third. The clock can stop once in each of the first two rounds and twice in the finals.

Each batter will get an extra 30 seconds of time after each regulation period, and each man can earn a bonus of 30 seconds – for a total of 60 seconds of bonus time – for every homer they launch of 475 feet or more.

Each player is also entitled to one 45-second timeout in each of the three regulation periods. Ties in any round are broken by a 60-second swing-off with no bonus time or stoppages.

2023 Home Run Derby Bracket

Here are the first round matchups of the bracket:

  • No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. vs. No. 8 Adley Rutschman.
  • No. 2 Pete Alonso vs. No. 7 Julio Rodríguez.
  • No. 3 Mookie Betts vs. No. 6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  • No. 4 Adolis García vs. No. 5 Randy Arozarena.
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