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Odds to Win the 2019 Home Run Derby

Outside of the game itself, there’s no question the MLB Home Run Derby is the highlight of All-Star Week. The 2019 edition of the derby, which takes place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio on July 8, is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory, and sportsbooks are gearing up for the event.

Josh Bell is the +300 favorite to win the 2019 Home Run Derby.

Online shop BetOnline has released odds on which man will emerge triumphant, with Josh Bell as the +300 favorite to win it all. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350), Pete Alonso (+400), Joc Pederson (+550), Alex Bregman (+800), Ronald Acuna Jr. (+800), Matt Chapman (+800) and Carlos Santana (+1000) round out the field.

Since the odds were released on July 4, Bell’s odds have improved significantly. The Pirates slugger was initially available at +700 before they jumped all the way to +300 less than a day later. Christian Yelich opened as the +225 fave but was forced to withdraw just over 24 hours before the event. Chapman of the Oakland A’s is replacing him.

Coming off last year’s exciting derby in which Bryce Harper won in front of his then-hometown fans in Washington, the Home Run Derby will have no shortage of eyeballs on it this time around. An injection of youth into this year’s derby showcases some of the most talented young sluggers in MLB.

Bracket Format has Yielded Excellent Results

The eight players are seeded No. 1-8 in a bracket format based on their regular-season home-run total as of July 3, and ties are broken based on number of home runs hit over the past few weeks.

The derby is a three-round, single-elimination layout where batters have four minutes to hit as many homers as they can. The clock can stop once in each of the first two rounds and twice in the finals.

Each man can earn bonus time if they launch multiple home runs over 440 feet, and in the event of a tie, a minute-long homer-off will ensue.

Plenty of Value in First-Round Matchups

As far as individual first-round brackets are concerned, BetOnline is offering no shortage of underdog value. Guerrero is favored over Chapman in one head-to-head matchup, with the Jays rookie a -150 favorite and Chapman coming back at +120.

Bregman opened as chalk against Pederson but the odds have flipped with the Houston 3B now sitting at +120 with the LA slugger at -150. Pete Alonso is a big favorite at -175 to beat Santana (+145) while Bell is a -200 front-runner over Acuna (+160).

Pederson, Bregman Have Derby Experience

Out of the eight players competing, only Pederson and Bregman have Home Run Derby experience. Pederson’s lone derby showing came in 2015 when he made it all the way to the finals before losing to Todd Frazier 15-14.

The 2015 derby served as Pederson’s coming-out party to the national audience, and the 27-year-old remains tied for seventh for the most single-derby home runs in MLB history with 39.

Bregman appeared in last year’s event but lost to Kyle Schwarber in the first round by a score of 16-15. The Houston Astros star will have plenty to prove this year, and his +1000 value to win is excellent value in my eyes.

2019 Home Run Derby Odds
PlayerOdds
Josh Bell+300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+350
Pete Alonso+400
Joc Pederson+550
Matt Chapman+800
Alex Bregman+800
Ronald Acuna Jr.+800
Carlos Santana+1000
Head-to-head first-round odds
PlayerOdds
Matt Chapman+120
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-150
Head-to-head first-round odds
PlayerOdds
Alex Bregman+120
Joc Pederson-150
Head-to-head first-round odds
PlayerOdds
Pete Alonso-175
Carlos Santana+145
Head-to-head first-round odds
PlayerOdds
Josh Bell-200
Ronald Acuna Jr.+160

Odds as of July 8 at BetOnline

MLB All-Star Game festivities are about to take hold in the U.S. capital at Nationals Park and no event garners more attention than the home run derby. With some fresh faces about to vie to be called the long-ball champ, Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper tops the oddsboard to win the 2018 Home Run Derby.

Online sportsbook Bovada has Harper as the +225 favorite followed by Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber at +350, Cubs second baseman Javier Baez at +500, Brewers slugger Jesus Aguilar at +500, Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy at +650, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman at +750, Phillies outfielder Rhys Hoskins at +900 and the lone American League representative Alex Bregman at +1100 to round out the odds table.

This is Harper’s Time to Shine

2018 hasn’t been all sunshine and roses for the former MVP. Bryce Harper has 23 home runs this season and while that’s all well and good, he’s hitting an awful .214 at the plate with a modest 54 RBIs. So, is it “a clown question bro!” to ask why Harper is the favorite? Yes, it may be because Harper’s workout routine and hitting clinics are legendary even at the age of 25.

Competitions like these are made for workout warriors like Harper and with right field being a few feet shorter than left at Nationals Park, that should play into a huge advantage for the seventh-year basher. While the Vegas slugger may have only topped 40 home runs once in his career (2015), being able to smash dingers in your own ballpark with the hometown crowd should make bettors seriously consider backing Harper at the +225 price tag.

Why is Schwarber Getting So Much Love?

Quite simply, Schwarbie is a masher who is probably pound for pound the best power hitter in the competition. The third-year outfielder has 18 home runs this season and had 30 dingers in 2017. Since joining the Cubs in 2015, he’s been touted as a monster home run hitter with 500-foot power and in the 2015 postseason, he set the record of five home runs by a Cubs player in the postseason and became the youngest to hit five or more since Miguel Cabrera.

However, at +350, those odds aren’t very sexy when you consider that if he advances in his bracket past Alex Bregman, he has to potentially face Jesus Aguilar or Rhys Hoskins in the semifinal. Aguilar has been arguably the hottest power hitter in the majors and Hoskins has been known to get hot as evidenced by his 2017 campaign when he hit 18 home runs in his first 34 games in the bigs.

Also, the “big” knock on the Schwarb is that this event tends to lean to hitters with stamina which is something he’s not exactly known for. I think he advances out of the first round but loses in the semis.

Muncy is the Dark-horse Pick

Since blowing up onto the scene in 2018, Max Muncy has been another wunderkind of a hitter that the Dodgers managed to scoop up to carry the offensive load. In 71 games this season, Muncy has knocked out 22 home runs in only 221 at-bats. To put that in perspective, that’s a home run for every 10.22 at-bats, which tops MLB. The rookie has 15 home runs since the start of June, which is seven more than he hit in April and May combined.

He’ll get to face Javier Baez in the opening round and while Baez is a savant when it comes to stealing home plate, he’s not a conventional power hitter so I think Muncy takes this matchup easily. While the knock on Muncy is that he’s done most of his damage at home (14 home runs in 2018 at Dodger Stadium), you can’t argue with his value at +650.

Odds To Win 2018 MLB Home Run Derby
  • Bryce Harper +225
  • Kyle Schwarber +350
  • Javier Baez +500
  • Jesus Aguilar +500
  • Max Muncy +650
  • Freddie Freeman +750
  • Rhys Hoskins +900
  • Alex Bregman +1000
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
2018 MLB Home Run Derby - Player To Reach Finals
  • Bryce Harper +125
  • Javier Baez +255
  • Max Muncy +300
  • Freddie Freeman +350
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
2018 MLB Home Run Derby - Player To Reach Finals
  • Jesus Aguilar +175
  • Kyle Schwarber +190
  • Rhys Hoskins +260
  • Alex Bregman +350
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
To Hit the Longest Home Run in Round 1
  • Bryce Harper +300
  • Jesus Aguilar +350
  • Max Muncy +500
  • Freddie Freeman +600
  • Kyle Schwarber +600
  • Rhys Hoskins +600
  • Javier Baez +600
  • Alex Bregman +900
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Home Run Derby - Exact Finals Matchup
  • Jesus Aguilar vs Bryce Harper +550
  • Kyle Schwarber vs Bryce Harper +600
  • Rhys Hoskins vs Bryce Harper +750
  • Jesus Aguilar vs Javier Baez +900
  • Alex Bregman vs Bryce Harper +950
  • Kyle Schwarber vs Javier Baez +950
  • Jesus Aguilar vs Freddie Freeman +1100
  • Jesus Aguilar vs Max Muncy +1100
  • Kyle Schwarber vs Max Muncy +1100
  • Rhys Hoskins vs Javier Baez +1200
  • Kyle Schwarber vs Freddie Freeman +1200
  • Rhys Hoskins vs Max Muncy +1400
  • Alex Bregman vs Javier Baez +1500
  • Rhys Hoskins vs Freddie Freeman +1500
  • Alex Bregman vs Max Muncy +1800
  • Alex Bregman vs Freddie Freeman +2000
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Alex Bregman +125
  • Max Muncy -155
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Javier Baez +120
  • Max Muncy -150
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Javier Baez -200
  • Alex Bregman +160
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Bryce Harper -220
  • Alex Bregman +180
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Bryce Harper -190
  • Javier Baez +155
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Rhys Hoskins EVEN
  • Max Muncy -130
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Rhys Hoskins +120
  • Javier Baez -150
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Rhys Hoskins +160
  • Bryce Harper -200
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Kyle Schwarber +155
  • Bryce Harper -190
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Kyle Schwarber -115
  • Javier Baez -115
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Kyle Schwarber -160
  • Rhys Hoskins +130
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Freddie Freeman -140
  • Alex Bregman +110
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Freddie Freeman +120
  • Javier Baez -150
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Freddie Freeman +160
  • Bryce Harper -200
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Freddie Freeman -115
  • Rhys Hoskins -115
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Freddie Freeman +130
  • Kyle Schwarber -160
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar -130
  • Javier Baez EVEN
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar +120
  • Bryce Harper -150
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar -160
  • Freddie Freeman +130
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar -145
  • Rhys Hoskins +115
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar -125
  • Kyle Schwarber -105
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Freddie Freeman -105
  • Max Muncy -125
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Kyle Schwarber -135
  • Max Muncy +105
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Kyle Schwarber -150
  • Alex Bregman +120
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar -140
  • Max Muncy +110
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the First Round
  • Jesus Aguilar -200
  • Alex Bregman +160
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
2018 MLB Home Run Derby - Exact 2nd Round Matchup
  • Jesus Aguilar vs Kyle Schwarber +185
  • Rhys Hoskins vs Kyle Schwarber +265  
  • Jesus Aguilar vs Alex Bregman +270
  • Rhys Hoskins vs Alex Bregman +375
Odds as of July 16 Bovada
2018 MLB Home Run Derby - Exact 2nd Round Matchup
  • Bryce Harper vs Max Muncy +150
  • Bryce Harper vs Javier Baez +230
  • Freddie Freeman vs Max Muncy +333
  • Freddie Freeman vs Javier Baez +475
Odds as of July 16 Bovada

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