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2021 Home Run Derby Odds: Ohtani the Favorite

Shohei Ohtani is the favorite in 2021 Home Run Derby odds.

Outside of the game itself, there’s no question the MLB Home Run Derby is the highlight of All-Star Week. The 2021 edition of the derby, which takes place at the hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver, Colorado, on July 12, is shaping up to be a good one after Major League Baseball did not hold a derby in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Online shop BetOnline Sportsbook has updated odds on which man will emerge triumphant, with AL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani favored to win at +190. Joey Gallo (+300), Pete Alonso (+500), Matt Olson (+675), Trevor Story (+800), Juan Soto (+1400), Salvador Perez (+1400) and Trey Mancini (+1400) round out the field.

Alonso won the most recent rendition of the event in 2019 and will try to become just the fourth player to win the derby twice (joining Prince Fielder, Yoenis Céspedes and Ken Griffey Jr.). 

New to betting on baseball? Be sure to check out our How to Bet on MLB betting guide. Also, keep an eye on our MLB odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.

2021 Home Run Derby Odds

2021 Home Run Derby Odds to win
PlayerOdds
Shohei Ohtani+190
Joey Gallo+300
Pete Alonso+500
Matt Olson+675
Trevor Story+800
Juan Soto+1400
Salvador Perez+1400
Trey Mancini+1400

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

Bracket Format has Yielded Excellent Results

The eight players are seeded No. 1-8 in a bracket format based on their regular-season home run total heading into play on July 7, and ties were broken based on 2020 home run totals. Mancini did not play last season, so his tie with Alonso was broken by 2019 totals. The matchups are as follows:

No. 1 Ohtani (31) vs No. 8 Soto (10)
No. 2 Gallo (21) vs No. 7 Story (11)
No. 3 Olson (20) vs No. 6 Mancini (15)
No. 4 Perez (20) vs No. 5 Alonso (15)

The derby is a three-round, single-elimination layout where batters have three minutes to hit as many homers as they can in the first two rounds and two minutes in the third. The clock can stop once in each of the first two rounds and twice in the finals.

Each batter will get an extra 30 seconds of time after each regulation period, and each man can earn a bonus 30 seconds – for a total of 60 seconds of bonus time – for every homer they launch of 475 feet or more.

Each player is also entitled to one 45-second timeout in each of the three regulation periods.

Ties in any round are broken by a 60-second swing-off with no bonus time or stoppages.

The Shohei Show

Shohei Ohtani (+190) will become the first Japanese player to participate in the MLB Home Run Derby; he will also be the first player to play in an all-star game as both a position player and a pitcher.

It has been a truly incredible and historic season for the 27-year-old and all eyes will be on him as the No. 1 seed as he entered the all-star break leading the majors in home runs and as the most talked about player in the league.

Ohtani won the Nippon Professional Baseball Home Run Derby in 2016.

The Defending Champ Should Have an Edge

Alonso (+500) is the only player in the field who has participated in the MLB Home Run Derby and should have an edge using the rules and flow of the event to his advantage. 

Alonso was quite open about much he loves the event, which is rare considering many players over the years have spoken about not wanting to participate more than once or at all. 

Alonso is sitting at pretty good odds of +500 as the only player in the field with experience and makes for a solid value bet. 

Home-Field Advantage

Coors Field does not discriminate toward any type of hitter and none of the participants should have any issue getting the ball through the mile-high air out of the park. But Rockies infielder Trevor Story (+800) should have a little bit of an advantage being the only player in the event who plays his home games in Denver. 

Story would be the fourth player to win the event at home. Bryce Harper did it in 2018, Todd Frazier did it in 2015 and Ryne Sandberg was the first player to accomplish the feat back in 1990.

2021 Home Run Derby Prop Bets

Home Run Derby Odds - League of Winner

League of winner
OptionOdds
American League-220
National League+180

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

The American League being the heavy favorite here should be no surprise as not only are there more participants from the AL (Ohtani, Gallo, Olson, Perez, Mancini) than the NL (Story, Soto, Alonso), but the two favorites in Home Run Derby odds and the top three seeds are all from the American League. 

At -210, there isn’t a ton of meat on the bone there for bettors, but it’s a bit surprising the line isn’t higher. 

Home Run Derby Odds - Swinging Side of Winner

swinging side of winner
OptionOdds
Righty+160
Lefty-200

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

It seems to us that there is some value here in betting on a left-handed batter to win in 2021 Home Run Derby odds as the top two favorites are both lefties. -200 is a more than reasonable price to pay to capture the two favorites with outs in Olson and Soto as well.

Olson, the No. 3 seed in the event, is coming in hot with 23 homers this season, including two in his final game before the all-star break. And with Soto matching up with Ohtani in the first round, you are guaranteed to get a lefty through to Round 2.

Home Run Derby Odds - Most Home Runs Hit in Round 1

Most Home runs hit in round 1
OptionOdds
OVER 25.5 home runs-120
UNDER 25.5 home runs-110

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

Home Run Derby Odds - Fewest Home Runs Hit in Round 1

Fewest Home runs hit in round 1
OptionOdds
OVER 12.5 home runs-140
UNDER 12.5 home runs+110

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

2021 Home Run Derby Odds - Longest Home Run in the Contest

Longest home run in the contest
OptionOdds
OVER 517.5 feet-130
UNDER 517.5 feet+100

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

Home Run Derby Odds - Most Home Runs in Round 1

Most home runs in Round 1
PlayerOdds
Shohei Ohtani+250
Joey Gallo+250
Pete Alonso+500
Matt Olson +550
Trevor Story+800
Juan Soto+900
Salvador Perez+900
Trey Mancini+900

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

Home Run Derby Odds - Fewest Home Runs in Round 1

Fewest home runs in round 1
PlayerOdds
Trey Mancini+300
Juan Soto+375
Salvador Perez +375
Trevor Story+500
Matt Olson+600
Pete Alonso+700
Joey Gallo+900
Shohei Ohtani +900

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook   

Home Run Derby Odds - Longest Home Run in Round 1

Longest home run in round 1
PlayerOdds
Shohei Ohtani+190
Joey Gallo+250
Pete Alonso+600
Trevor Story+700
Matt Olson+700
Juan Soto+850
Salvador Perez+850
Trey Mancini+1200

Odds as of July 12 at BetOnline Sportsbook