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Houston Looks To Complete Historic Comeback With Win vs Tampa Bay

Astros vs Rays ALCS Betting Odds Game 7 Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa celebrating a victory

The Houston Astros are 3-0 SU over their last three games since going 1-4 SU over their previous five including three straight losses to the Tampa Bay Rays to open up the ALCS. The Astros are now one win away from joining the 2004 Boston Red Sox as the only team ever to win a best-of-seven series after being down 3-0 in MLB history.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays
  • Date/Time: October 17, 8:37 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Petco Park
  • TV Coverage: TBS
  • Opening Odds: Tampa Bay -120 | O/U 8 runs (Line History)
  • Astros vs Rays Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Despite three straight losses as the favorite, the Rays opened as -120 favorites again in Game 7. Tampa Bay is now sitting at -117 while Houston is going off at +107 to pull off the upset. The total is set at eight runs, the same as it was in Game 6 when these two teams went OVER for the first time in the ALCS in Houston’s 7-4 win.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Lance McCullers Jr. allowed a three-run home run in the first inning of Game 2 after Jose Altuve extended the inning with a throwing error. He was nearly perfect otherwise, completing seven innings while allowing only one earned run, four hits, and no walks with 11 strikeouts. McCullers Jr. has allowed five home runs in two postseason starts in 2020.

Charlie Morton outdueled McCullers Jr. in Game 2’s 4-2 Rays win with no earned runs in five innings pitched. Tampa Bay is 7-2 in Morton’s last nine starts and 4-0 in each of his last four starts. Morton has a 0.90 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in four career postseason starts with the Rays and has led Tampa Bay to wins in all four of those games.

Houston News & Notes

With the Astros down 3-0 in the ALCS, all eyes were on Jose Altuve’s sudden case of the yips as the Astros second baseman made two key throwing errors that contributed to early-series losses. But with the series now tied at 3-3 and no Astros errors in three straight games, Altuve has flipped the script and helped to put his team in position to win this series batting .455 with five runs, three home runs, and five RBI through six games against the Rays.

Houston blew Game 6 open with a four-run fifth inning. Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Aledmys Diaz all picked up multi-hit games. Since averaging only 1.67 runs per game across three losses in this series, this Astros lineup has heated up and is averaging five runs per game over this 3-0 run.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

Tampa Bay took an early 1-0 lead in the second inning and looked to be in good shape as Blake Snell opened the game with four straight scoreless innings. But then disaster struck in the fifth inning, and by the end of the seventh inning, the Rays found themselves in a 7-2 hole. Manuel Margot produced the lion’s share of the team’s offense from the sixth spot in the order; the top four batters in the order went 1-for-12 with no runs, no RBI, and six strikeouts.

A series win over Houston seemed inevitable when the Rays were up 3-0. Now the Rays are struggling across the board and on the ropes. Charlie Morton is as steady as they come and should give the Rays a solid five innings, but will the offense and bullpen take advantage if he does?

Betting Pick: UNDER 8

The UNDER is 7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games. The offensive outburst in Game 6 feels a bit like a fluke after this series produced five straight UNDERs; in a matchup that’s too close to call, look for whoever comes out on top to do so in a tight, low-scoring game.

Shark Bites
  • Houston is 9-3 ATS this postseason.
  • Tampa Bay is 12-5 SU over its last 17 games.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the ALCS.