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Odds to Win the 2018 AL and NL Cy Young Awards

Odds to Win the 2018 AL and NL Cy Young Awards

The MLB season enters its final weekend and it appears that there are two clear favorites to win the Cy Young awards. Just two weeks ago it looked like a three-horse race in the National League, but Jacob deGrom (-325) continued his dominance and has put himself in the driver’s seat to win his first Cy Young. Similarly, in the American League, one favorite for most of the season fell off while Blake Snell (-150) has emerged as the one to beat. If deGrom and Snell both win, it’ll be the first time since 2012 that the two Cy Young winners are both from non-playoff teams.

AL Cy Young Odds: Blake Snell has passed Chris Sale

For much of the season, it was New York Yankees hurler Luis Severino who was the favorite but a rough stretch in the middle of the season hurt his chances and it appeared Chris Sale was in line for his first Cy Young. However, injury (or fatigue) troubles have led to Sale pitching 29 innings in the second half. Most of those innings were scoreless, but in his last two starts he was roughed up for a 5.63 ERA and, in my opinion, that cost him his opportunity to win the Cy Young.

While Sale was on the sideline with injury problems and struggling in his last two starts, Blake Snell has taken over as the favorite to win the Cy Young. The Washington native leads the majors with a 21-5 record and tops the AL with a 1.90 ERA, trailing only deGrom in the majors. The lefty has allowed just seven earned runs since the all-star break, holding a sparkling 1.11 ERA over that span, and he has won his last nine starts. Just two weeks ago, the 25-year-old had +350 odds and at the midpoint in the season, hopefully you took a flyer on him as he had +3300 odds. Now he’s the favorite at -150 with just a weekend remaining in the MLB schedule.

Here's a look at the rest of the AL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 American League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Blake Snell (Rays)-150
Chris Sale (Red Sox)+150
Justin Verlander (Astros)+750
Corey Kluber (Indians)+1100

Odds as of September 27 at Bovada

NL Cy Young Odds: The award is deGrom’s to lose

Max Scherzer was a runaway train through the first half of the season with a third straight Cy Young seemingly on the horizon. The Missouri native hasn’t really fallen off, going from a 2.41 ERA before the all-star break to sporting a 2.72 ERA in the 13 starts after. Scherzer also reached the 300-strikeout mark on the season in his last start. Overall, the righty is 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA and 300 strikeouts, which is a pretty good season, right?

Well, Jacob deGrom has a 1.70 ERA heading into the final stretch of the season, which would be the lowest ERA by a Cy Young-winning starter (Eric Gagne had a 1.20 ERA as a closer in 2003) since Greg Maddux’s 1.63 ERA in 1995. The Florida native hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any start this season and has allowed two or fewer runs in 26 of his 32 trips to the mound. The righty has just a 10-9 record because the Mets have averaged just 3.53 runs in his starts, which is near the bottom of the league for starters who have made at least 10 starts. DeGrom also leads the majors with a 0.91 WHIP and is fourth with 269 strikeouts and at -325 he’s a lock to win the NL Cy Young.

Here’s a look at the rest of the NL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 National League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Jacob deGrom (Mets)-325
Max Scherzer (Nationals)+280
Aaron Nola (Phillies)+950

Odds as of September 27 at Bovada

Archived Articles

With just two weeks remaining in the MLB schedule, it is becoming crunch time for starters to make their case for the 2018 AL and NL Cy Youngs. The National League is coming down to a three-horse race with pitchers from the NL East, while the American League is much more open with six hurlers in the mix. As of right now, the two favorites would be first-time winners.

AL Cy Young Odds: Chris Sale remains top odds

It only makes sense that the ace of the best team in baseball has the best odds to win the Cy Young and that team is the Boston Red Sox and that man is Chris Sale (-220). The lefty has Cy Young-worthy stats this season, going 12-4 with a sparkling 1.92 ERA, and the Red Sox haven’t lost a Sale start since June 19. However, the Florida native has been used rarely in the second half, making just five starts for a total of 21 innings since mid-July. Granted, he has not allowed a run over that span but it’ll be interesting to see if his lack of play will take away votes.

The one man I believe has a shot at taking the Cy Young away from Sale is Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell (+350). The Washington native has been much more active than the Boston hurler and has similar numbers. The 25-year-old is the only 20-game winner in the majors at 20-5, has an impressive 1.97 ERA and in his most recent start got over the 200-strikeout plateau for the first time in his career. The one hindrance for Snell to win the Cy Young may be that his club is unlikely to make the playoffs.

Here’s a look at the rest of the AL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 American League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Chris Sale (Red Sox)-220
Blake Snell (Rays)+350
Justin Verlander (Astros)+450
Corey Kluber (Indians)+500
Gerrit Cole (Astros)+1100
Trevor Bauer (Indians)+1400

Odds as of September 19 at Bovada

NL Cy Young Odds: Jacob deGrom is a runaway train

This year’s award should be named the NL East Cy Young Award as there are odds for just three pitchers: Jacob deGrom (-250) of the New York Mets, Max Scherzer (+250) of the Washington Nationals and Aaron Nola (+850) of the Philadelphia Phillies. Nola has seemingly hit a wall recently as the Phillies have dropped three of his last five starts and he holds a 5.01 ERA through his four appearances in September.

Meanwhile, deGrom has had a masterful season, despite a losing record. The Florida native is 8-9 with a remarkable 1.78 ERA and sits fourth in MLB with 251 strikeouts. The righty has surrendered more than three earned runs in just one start this season. DeGrom should have a much better record than 8-9 but he has been provided with just 3.53 runs per game in 2018 which ranks near the bottom of the majors for pitchers who have made at least 10 starts this season.

That leaves us with Max Scherzer for an opportunity to secure his third straight Cy Young. Once again, the Missouri native has dazzled on the mound this season, going 17-7 with a 2.53 ERA and leading the majors with 277 strikeouts. Much like Nola, though, Scherzer has been roughed up over his last five starts, sporting an ERA of 4.78, and he’s playing for a team that has massively underperformed this year without a shot at the playoffs. With Scherzer in the mix, you can never count him out and at +250 he may be worth a wager.

Here's a look at the NL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 National League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Jacob deGrom (Mets)-250
Max Scherzer (Nationals)+250
Aaron Nola (Phillies)+850

Odds as of September 19 at Bovada

Archived Articles

There has been quite the shake-up in the Cy Young Award odds in the second half of the season and with just over a month remaining in the MLB schedule, hurlers will have to buckle down if they want to win the award. The former favorite in the American League has seemingly hit a wall, while a new hurler has emerged in the National League looking to upset the three-peat for Max Scherzer.

2018 AL Cy Young Odds: Chris Sale has Top Odds to win his First Cy Young

For most of this year, it looked like New York Yankees ace Luis Severino (+1100) was a lock to earn his first Cy Young Award, but the second half hasn’t been kind to him. The 24-year-old has been thumped for 25 earned runs in 31 innings for a 7.55 ERA while dropping four of his six starts since the all-star break.

Meanwhile, as Severino has fallen off, Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale (-250) has been lights-out in the second half. Granted, the lefty has only made three starts – he’s currently on the disabled list for the second time since the all-star break. However, in those three appearances, Sale has allowed just six hits over 17 innings while not surrendering a run and striking out 31 batters. The big area of concern for the Florida native is his health, obviously. He has already landed on the DL twice in the second half and if that trend continues he may fall out of this race, but it could just be Boston being cautious ahead of their expected deep run in the playoffs.

The outside shot right now is Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Blake Snell. At +900, the 25-year-old may provide the best value of the hurlers on the list. The Washington native has a 0.90 ERA since the all-star break, allowing just nine hits over 20 innings while striking out 26. This season, the lefty has had just three games in which he has given up more than three earned runs in a tough hitter-friendly AL East Division. Snell could be hampered by his club, which provides him with just 4.04 runs per game, which is tied with Justin Verlander for fewest of the players on the list.

Here’s a look at the rest of the AL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 American League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Chris Sale (Red Sox)-250
Corey Kluber (Indians)+450
Justin Verlander (Astros)+600
Trevor Bauer (Indians)+800
Blake Snell (Rays)+900
Luis Severino (Yankees)+1100
Gerrit Cole (Astros)+1400

Odds as of August 22 at BetOnline

2018 NL Cy Young Odds: Everyone’s chasing deGrom

Washington Nationals hurler Max Scherzer (+120) looked poised to win his third consecutive NL Cy Young Award and fourth Cy Young overall. However, unlike in the AL where Severino has fallen off, Scherzer has remained strong but has simply been passed by New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom (-150).

DeGrom has been masterful this season. He has allowed four earned runs in just one start while in his other 24 outings he has given up three or fewer runs for a 1.71 ERA on the year. The Florida native is one of six pitchers to rack up over 200 strikeouts this season and his 204 K’s trail only Max Scherzer (234) in the NL. Since 1996, only one National League pitcher has had a lower ERA than 1.71 to finish the season and that was Zack Greinke (1.66) in 2015. All year long the Mets have struggled to knock in runs, providing deGrom an average of 3.76 runs per game, which is why his win-loss record isn’t that great at 8-7. However, over the last 30 days, the Mets have scored the third-most runs in the majors, which will only help deGrom’s bid for his first career Cy Young Award.

Still looming in the dark and maybe providing the best value to win the award is Philadelphia Phillies’ Aaron Nola (+900). The Louisiana native has been Mr. Consistency this season, allowing three or fewer runs in 23 of his 25 appearances, while holding an impressive 14-3 record. Nola has been in the conversation for the NL Cy Young all year long, though seemingly always as the bridesmaid and never the bride. The Phillies have fallen off in the second half and now find themselves a half-game back from the second wild-card spot. Hopefully, this recent rough stretch doesn’t tarnish Nola’s remarkable season.

Here’s a look at the rest of the NL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 National League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Jacob deGrom (Mets)-150
Max Scherzer (Nationals)+120
Aaron Nola (Phillies)+900
Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)+1200
Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks)+1200
Mike Foltynewicz (Braves)+1800
Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks)+1800

Odds as of August 22 at BetOnline

Archived Articles

There are just over 60 games remaining for all the clubs in MLB and that means crunch time for the pitchers if they want to earn a Cy Young Award. The National League favorite was a run-away train for the majority of the season but things have tightened in recent weeks and there’s one hurler eyeing his first Cy Young. Meanwhile, oddsmakers have a battle between a Yankees pitcher and a Red Sox pitcher to capture the American League award.

2018 AL Cy Young Odds: Severino remains the favorite

Luis Severino (+175) has absolutely swarmed batters this season and ranks in the top five in the AL for many of the pitching categories. Severino is 14-2 with a 2.31 ERA in a hitter-friendly AL East division. The 24-year-old has allowed three or fewer runs in 18 of his 20 starts this season, and his club, the New York Yankees, are 18-2 SU when get gets the ball. The Dominican Republican native is one win away from setting a career high, besting last season’s record of 14-6 when he finished third in Cy Young voting. In addition, he has improved his hits per nine innings from 7.0 last year to 6.8 in 2018, and his WHIP went from 1.04 to 1.01. Severino has gotten better and has his eyes locked on his first career Cy Young.

Challenging Severino is perennial Cy Young hopeful Chris Sale of the Boston Red Sox. Sale (+200) has finished in the top five in the award’s voting in five straight years but has failed to be the ultimate winner. The 29-year-old continues to elevate his game, as he currently has his best career ERA (2.23), his best career WHIP (0.90) and has his best strikeouts per nine innings ratio at 13.1 K’s/9. The one edge Severino has over Sale is the wins. The Red Sox hurler is 10-4 but his club is just 12-8 SU in his 20 trips to the mound. Could this be another season where he comes up short in the votes or is this the year that Sale earns his well-deserved Cy Young?

Here's a look at the rest of the AL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 American League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Luis Severino (Yankees)+175
Chris Sale (Red Sox)+200
Justin Verlander (Astros)+275
Gerrit Cole (Astros)+800
Blake Snell (Rays+1000
Corey Kluber (Indians)+1000
Charlie Morton (Astros)+1400
Trevor Bauer (Indians)+2000
James Paxton (Mariners)+2500
Dallas Keuchel (Astros)+5000
Sean Manaea (Athletics)+5000

Odds as of July 20 at BetOnline

2018 NL Cy Young Odds: Scherzer hanging on to the top spot

Nationals ace Max Scherzer (-200) is on the hunt for his third consecutive NL Cy Young and fourth Cy Young overall, having won one in the AL with the Detroit Tigers in 2013. The Missouri natives’ numbers are quite similar to last year’s in which he won the Cy Young and finished 10th in the NL MVP voting. However, there have been incremental improvements from 2017 that puts him once again in the driver’s seat to pick up another award. Scherzer earned a complete-game shutout already this year, his first since 2015 and he averaging 12.2 K’s/9 which is a full strikeout higher than when he set a career high in strikeouts with 284 in 2016, he currently has 182 K’s heading into the second half.

Who can stop Scherzer you may ask? Well, Aaron Nola (+350) of the Phillies could be the man to do it. In his fourth season as a pro, Nola is having a career year that could result in an NL Cy Young award. The 25-year-old has a 12-3 record with a 2.30 ERA and is averaging 9.1 K’s/9. Nola has done a tremendous job at keeping the ball in the park when he’s on the mound averaging just 0.4 HR’s/9 for a total of just six given up all year, compared to Scherzer who has surrendered 15. In addition, the Phillies have a 14-6 record SU when Nola gets the ball, and are currently leading the NL East with their sights set on making the playoffs for the first time since 2011, while the Nats are in jeopardy of not making the playoffs. It’s hard to knock off the best but the Phillies ace is doing his best to do so.

Here's a look at the rest of the NL Cy Young odds:

Odds to win the 2018 National League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Max Scherzer (Nationals)-200
Aaron Nola (Phillies)+350
Jacob deGrom (Mets)+450
Jon Lester (Cubs)+1000
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)+1600
Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks)+1600
Mike Foltynewicz (Braves)+2500
Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)+2500
Gio Gonzalez (Nationals)+4000
Jake Arrieta (Phillies)+4000
Michael Wacha (Cardinals)+5000

Odds as of July 20 at BetOnline

Archived Articles

As we inch closer to the midway point to the 2018 MLB season it’s a good time to take a look at who’s rising to the top for the opportunity to win the Cy Young Award. There are some familiar names on the list for both the National League and American League Cy Young odds, including former winners such as Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer. But could there be a couple of first-time winners this season?

2018 AL Cy Young Odds: Severino Leads the Pack

Luis Severino (+240) has taken another leap forward in his development, which bodes well for the New York Yankees. Severino finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2017 after going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 230 batters. This season, the 24-year-old ranks first in the AL with a 1.98 ERA and has a sparkling 13-2 record. The Dominican Republic native has made improvements, increasing his K/BB ratio from 4.51 last year to 4.76 this season, and he secured his first career complete-game shutout vs Houston on May 2.

Houston Astros righty Justin Verlander (+250) vies for his second career Cy Young Award, having earned the title in 2011 while also capturing the AL MVP in the same season. The Virginia native has also been runner-up in the voting twice, in 2012 and 2016. This season, Verlander is in the top five for the big statistical categories such as ERA, strikeouts and WHIP. The 35-year-old holds a 9-4 record with a 2.15 ERA while fanning 154 batters and leads the AL with a 0.84 WHIP. However, Verlander has surrendered 11 runs on 28.2 innings over his last three starts, so it’ll be interesting to watch how the experienced hurler handles the hot Houston days that lie ahead.

The ’Stros rotation is a murderers’ row as they have another starter in the hunt for the prized award in Gerrit Cole at +350. The 27-year-old finds himself just on the outside of the top pitchers in the AL, sporting a 9-2 record with a 2.70 ERA and 158 strikeouts. The California native finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2015 when he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA with Pittsburgh. This is Cole’s first season in the AL and he has taken the league by storm.

Odds to win the 2018 American League Cy Young Award
Player Odds
Luis Severino (NYY)+240
Justin Verlander (HOU) +250
Corey Kluber (CLE)+270
Gerrit Cole (HOU)+350
Chris Sale (BOS)+375
Trevor Bauer (CLE)+1500
Charlie Morton (HOU)+2800
Blake Snell (TB)+3300

Odds as of July 5 at Bovada

2018 NL Cy Young Odds: Scherzer the Man to Beat

Since 2013 there hasn’t been anyone more dominant than the Washington Nationals’ Max Scherzer (-600). The Missouri native captured his first of three Cy Young Awards in 2013 when he was a member of the Detroit Tigers, then signed with the Nats after the 2014 season. In his first season with his new club, he threw two no-hitters and finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting. More recently, the 33-year-old has won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2016 and 2017 and now looks to become the fifth player in MLB history to win four or more titles.

This season, Scherzer is 10-5 with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP while striking out an incredible 174 batters, 34 more than Patrick Corbin, who’s second in the NL with 140. Scherzer is fanning 13 batters per nine innings, which is 1.8 more K/9 than 2016 when he set a career high with 284 strikeouts.

If anyone can contest Scherzer for the NL Cy Young, it is the New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom. The Mets ace is 5-4 with a sparkling 1.84 ERA and sits third in the NL with 134 strikeouts. The 30-year-old is having a career year with his highest K/9 ratio at 11.2 and is allowing his fewest hits against with a hit/9 ratio of 6.8. The biggest knock on the Florida native is his record but that can be attributed to playing on a Mets team that ranks 27th in runs this season and has a 34-49 record in 2018. DeGrom’s best win percentage came in 2015 (.636, 14-8 record) when the club went to the World Series.

Odds to win the 2018 National League Cy young Award
Player Odds
Max Scherzer (WAS)-600
Jacob deGrom (NYM)+300
Jon Lester (CHC)+700
Aaron Nola (PHI)+800
Sean Newcomb (ATL)+4000
Carlos Martinez (STL)+5000

Odds as of July 5 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The Cy Young Award has been relatively predictable the last several seasons and two months into the season plenty of the typical names find themselves in the mix. The likes of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom litter the odds to win the National League and American League Cy Young Awards.

However, with the MLB season being absurdly long, there is still plenty of value for bettors who want to take the favorites or find their favorite sleeper picks. Here is a look at both the NL and AL Cy Young Award races two months in the season.

2018 AL Cy Young Odds

If you could give the Cy Young to an entire rotation, then the Houston Astros would already have this award locked up. The trio of Justin Verlander (+200), Gerrit Cole (+600) and Charlie Morton (+1200) have all been pitching at an absurdly high level for the Astros.

All three of the Houston starters are sitting in the top 10 in the MLB in ERA and WHIP while Verlander and Cole are in the top four in strikeouts. The undisputed leader is Verlander, who has pitched arguably the best games of his career since joining the Astros and having the pitching coaches tweak his mechanics.

A lot of people will be hesitant to back the 35-year-old Verlander due to his age and the sheer length of the season – nobody can keep pitching as well as he has that long. But Verlander has only been on the DL once in his career, has started at least 30 games in 12 of his 13 seasons and is averaging fewer pitches per start this season than he did in his MVP campaign in 2011.

It may not be the deepest sleeper but Corey Kluber (+500) is putting up Cy Young-worthy numbers in Cleveland. The Indians ace is actually on pace to match or eclipse most of the numbers he posted last season when he won the AL Cy Young. Kluber is third in baseball in WAR for pitchers, seventh in ERA and second in innings pitched. If you are done fawning over the Astros starting rotation, look at getting in on Kluber now.

2018 AL CY Young Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Justin Verlander (Astros)+200
Corey Kluber (Indians)+500
Chris Sale (Red Sox)+500
Gerrit Cole (Astros)+600
Luis Severino (Yankees)+1000
Charlie Morton (Astros)+1200
Carlos Carrasco (Indians)+2000
Trevor Bauer (Indians)+2000
James Paxton (Mariners)+2000
David Price (Red Sox)+2000
Dallas Keuchel (Astros)+2500
Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees)+3300
Chris Archer (Rays)+3300
Blake Snell (Rays)+3300
Sean Manaea (Athletics)+3300
Jake Odorizzi (Twins)+5000
Daniel Mengden (Athletics)+5000
Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox)+5000

Odds as of May 29 at BetOnline

2018 NL Cy Young Odds

To the shock of nobody, Max Scherzer (+200) sits in the top three in the NL in ERA, WHIP, WAR for pitchers, strikeouts and innings pitched. In fact, the Washington Nationals workhorse might actually be pitching better than he has the past two seasons – a feat considering he won the NL Cy Young both seasons.

If Scherzer can continue this pace, he is a shoo-in to join the incredibly illustrious group of pitchers to win three Cy Youngs in a row. The only other two pitchers to accomplish that feat were Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson. It’s hard to think of a reason for Scherzer to slow down either, with his reputation for consistently producing long, shutdown outings on the bump.

The top sleeper in the NL remains Patrick Corbin (+2500). The southpaw just is not getting the recognition he deserves this season despite being seventh in the NL in ERA, first in WHIP and second in strikeouts. Corbin has largely scrapped his ineffective changeup he forced last season and has started using a slow, winding curveball in its place. This change has quietly made Corbin the ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks staff.

2018 NL CY Young Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Max Scherzer (Nationals)+200
Jacob deGrom (Mets)+400
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)+1000
Aaron Nola (Phillies)+1000
Gio Gonzalez (Nationals)+1000
Madison Bumgarner (Giants)+1200
Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)+1400
Jake Arrieta (Phillies)+2000
Mike Foltynewicz (Braves)+2000
Kyle Hendricks (Cubs)+2000
Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks)+2000
Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)+2500
Jon Lester (Cubs)+2500
Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks)+2500
Sean Newcomb (Braves)+2800
Michael Wacha (Cardinals)+2800
Noah Syndergaard (Mets)+2800
Julio Teheran (Braves)+4000
Alex Wood (Dodgers)+5000

Odds as of May 29 at BetOnline

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