Let's get back at these MLB player props for Tuesday's baseball slate.
I'm honing in on some NL Central affairs with one homer prop and one pitcher outs bet. Here are my two MLB player props for June 11th, 2024:
June 10th Home Run Prop: Rowdy Tellez HR (+600)
Pirates vs Cardinals Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
Rowdy Tellez has had a rough start to his season, but he's on a bit of a heater lately. The Pirates 1B has nine hits (including a homer) and seven RBI in his last five games.
The key here is Tellez facing Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, though. In 18 career at-bats against the St. Louis righty, Tellez has six hits and two homers — good for a 1.091 OPS. Mikolas has also allowed three homers in his last two games and 10 in his previous 10.
Even though this matchup is Paul Skenes vs Mikolas, I'm not as keen on the Pirates as you'd think. Despite giving up homers, Mikolas has helped the Cards to a win in four of his last five outings.
June 10th Pitcher Outs Prop: Zach Eflin Under 15.5 Total Outs (-128)
Rays vs Cubs Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:51 pm ET
I broke down why I'm fading the Rays against the Cubs in my MLB expert picks, but let's hone in even further for a prop.
Eflin has surpassed 15.5 outs (5.2 or more innings) in just two of his last five starts, seeing his ERA rise to 4.14 on the season. He also faces a Cubs lineup that's dominated Eflin in the past. Current Chicago hitters have a .347 average and 1.043 OPS off Eflin in 75 career at-bats. The Cubs batters to watch in this one are Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger, who are both hitting over .300 against Eflin with multiple homers.
Last time Eflin pitched against these Cubs he got up to 18 outs with a quality start, but every other metric in this one is telling me his start today will be short.
