Italy and Mexico meet in the Pool B finale at the 2026 World Baseball Classic, with a quarterfinal berth on the line and the fate of Team USA hanging in the balance today.
Italy is the only unbeaten team left in Pool B at 3-0 after stunning the Americans 8-6 last night in one of the biggest upsets in WBC history. Mexico sits at 2-1 and must win to have any chance of advancing. But a Mexico win creates a three-way tie at 3-1 and triggers a tiebreaker that could eliminate the star-studded American roster from the tournament. What a moment that would be.
For this contest, Mexico is a -280 favorite at bet365 with the run total set at 7.5.
italy vs. mexico Odds - 2026 World Baseball Classic
Matchup Page: Italy vs. Mexico, Mar. 11, 7 pm ET
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | +2.5 (-120) | +230 | OVER 7.5 (-110) |
| Mexico | -2.5 (+100) | -280 | UNDER 7.5 (-110) |
Odds as of March 11th at bet365
italy vs. mexico Pick
Italy is the hottest team in this tournament, and I'm not fading them at +230. As Italy captain Vinnie Pasquantino said after the U.S. win, "Ohhh, where's the wine?" This squad is on fire. Vibes are high, and I think they have the energy and the pitching edge to pull off another upset.
Last night vs the U.S., Italy jumped out to an 8-0 lead behind home runs from Kyle Teel, Jac Caglianone, and Sam Antonacci, and Michael Lorenzen threw 4.2 scoreless innings against the most loaded lineup in baseball. This team has eight home runs in three games and has outscored opponents 23-4. As I mentioned before, confidence is through the roof right now.
Aaron Nola gets the start for Italy tonight. He's the best pitcher on their staff by a mile. This dude is a three-time All-Star who posted a 3.57 ERA with 195 strikeouts for the Phillies in 2025. Italy saved him for exactly this spot, and Nola against Mexico's lineup is a completely different challenge than what Mexico has faced against Brazilian minor leaguers and British fringe arms. Nola's curveball is elite, and he'll have a short leash with the bullpen fresh after Lorenzen ate innings last night.
Mexico counters with Javier Assad, who went 6-5 with a 3.42 ERA for the Cubs in 2025. He's solid but not a guy who's going to dominate, and Italy's lineup has been crushing quality pitching all tournament. Caglianone has two homers, Antonacci is swinging out of his mind, and Teel has been a spark plug at the top of the order.
Mexico's bats have cooled off considerably since the 16-0 demolition of Brazil. They scored just three runs against the US on Monday, with Jarren Duran providing the only real damage on two solo shots. Their lineup is dangerous, but the pitching matchup favors Italy tonight. At +230, I'm taking the team that just beat Team USA, has the better starter on the mound, and hasn't lost a game all tournament.
Italy Vs. Mexico Pick: Italy ML (+230)
italy vs. mexico Player Prop Bet
Jarren Duran To Record 2+ Hits (+200)
Duran is 2-for-2 lifetime against Aaron Nola with a pair of doubles. He's been the most dangerous hitter in Pool B not named Aaron Judge, going 3-for-4 with two home runs and two RBIs against the US on Monday after homering and driving in three against Brazil. Duran has been spraying the ball all over Daikin Park and has the speed to turn infield singles into hits. At +200, you're getting strong value on Mexico's hottest bat in a must-win game.
italy vs. mexico Betting Trends
- Italy is 3-0 in this tournament, outscoring opponents 23-4 with eight home runs across three games.
- Mexico scored just three runs in its last game after putting up 24 in its first two, though that was largely a product of facing Paul Skenes.
