The Baltimore Ravens suffered an upset road loss in Week 5 and venture to face a Tennessee Titans squad that also surprisingly faltered last week. Baltimore opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the road and is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games at Tennessee. The total opened at 42 points.
- The UNDER has hit in eight of the last 11 matchups between Baltimore and Tennessee.
- Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last nine home games.
- Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
WHY I LIKE THE UNDER AT 42 POINTS
Traditionally defense-first teams, both the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans are staying true to form in 2018, as their calling cards are defense. Both teams are in the top 10 in the NFL for yards allowed, while the Ravens have yielded the third-fewest points and the Titans the fifth-fewest points in the league.
Combine that with the Titans sitting 29th in points per game (17.4), and the potential for a shootout is fairly low.
Both teams also like to control run the ball. Tennessee is tied for second among all teams with 145 rushing attempts, while Baltimore is seventh with 139. The Ravens are also second in the NFL with 66 drives and lead the NFL with 394 offensive plays. This is a game that is likely to feature long, slow, methodical drives, and not an overwhelming number of big scoring plays.
Two top-end defenses. Two teams that like to run the ball, and one of the league’s least-productive offenses. What does it all add up to? A lot of plays, not a lot of points, and a total score that I’m willing to bet falls short of 42.
TENNESSSEE OFFENSE A ONE-WEEK Sportsbook?
For one week — actually, make that one half — the Tennessee Titans offense looked like it had figured things out.
In Week 4 against a tough Eagles defense, the Titans scored 17 points in the second half, plus a game-winning touchdown in overtime. Quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for 344 yards, Corey Davis had 161 receiving yards, and they finally began to look like a unit that could cause defenses some problems.
Then, in Week 5 against a far less talented Bills team, the Titans reverted back to their old ways: 121 passing yards, three turnovers, no touchdowns and a disappointing 13-12 loss.
We’ve seen what the Titans can do when the passing attack is on point, but it seems like that is more the exception than the rule. Against a stingy Ravens defense in Week 6, the Titans offense could be in for a long day, making their chances of covering +2.5 a potentially difficult task.
FLACCO ON PACE FOR A CAREER YEAR
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco already has a Super Bowl ring and at one time was the highest-paid QB in the league. But he’s been rather pedestrian since that 2012 title, hitting the 20-touchdown mark just twice and continuing his trend of throwing double-digit interceptions in all 10 of his professional seasons.
This season, however, has started off much better for Flacco, who is on pace for a career-best 4,960 yards. He’s also utilizing all of his receivers much more than in previous years, as he has six different players on pace for 400 receiving yards, something the Ravens haven’t come close to producing since 2012, and even then, they only had five players hit that mark.
Flacco’s leading receiver, free-agent signee John Brown, is enjoying a breakout season alongside Flacco’s career year. After notching a 1,000-yard season with seven touchdowns in 2015, he logged just 816 yards and five touchdowns total in 2016 and 2017, all with the Cardinals. This season he’s on pace for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns, as well as averaging 20.8 yards per reception, roughly five yards higher than his career numbers.
The Ravens stumbled last week against Cleveland, tallying just three field goals despite 410 total yards, and that snapped their streak of at least 23 points in every contest. It’s no coincidence that their lowest output has come against a very good Browns defense, which was arguably the best unit they’ve faced yet, so Sunday will be a good test of whether that was an aberration, or if Flacco and company can only thrive against lower-ranked defensive teams.
