Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the NFL’s hottest teams and look to continue their winning ways as they return home to the StubHub Center to host the struggling Denver Broncos. The Chargers, sitting at 7-2 (5-4 ATS), are 7-point favorites as they look to extend their winning streak to seven games, while the Broncos (3-6 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) try to get just their second win in their last eight games. The total for this matchup was set at 47 points.

Broncos vs Chargers Game Center

WHY I’M BETTING ON THE CHARGERS -7 THIS SUNDAY

The Chargers haven’t been the strongest ATS team at home the past two seasons, but these aren’t the same old Chargers. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and while the offense has cooled off just a touch lately, the defense has ramped up its intensity.

After holding Oakland to just six points in Week 10, making it five straight games holding opponents to under 20 points, the Chargers now sit eighth in the league in points allowed per game (20.7). If you remove their first three contests (including their only two losses, when they allowed 38 to the Kansas City Chiefs and 35 to the Los Angeles Rams), they’ve allowed just 15.5 points per game, which would be best in the league.

That’s bad news for a Denver offense that has been somewhat unpredictable week to week. The Broncos struggle with turnovers, as quarterback Case Keenum is second in the NFL in interceptions, and the team just traded starting wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who had been a staple of the roster for almost nine seasons.

These also aren’t your same old Broncos, as their recent hallmark — dominating defense — has not come to fruition this season. Denver still gets after the quarterback, with pressure from Von Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb, but has been sieve-like against the run, allowing 131.6 rushing yards per game.

Los Angeles has a plethora of weapons, both in the air and on the ground, to go with a stifling defense. Denver has turnover problems and its defense is not the elite unit it used to be. No matter how you calculate it, it all adds up to Los Angeles keeping pace in the AFC West Division race, so my money is on the Chargers covering.

WHO’S UP NEXT ON THE DENVER DEPTH CHART

With longtime WR Demaryius Thomas traded, there’s opportunity for one of Denver’s young pass catchers to get both more snaps and more targets.

In a Week 9 loss to Houston, rookie second-rounder Courtland Sutton got the start opposite Emmanuel Sanders, but it was actually tight end Jeff Heuerman who broke out for his best game of the season (and career). Receiving at least four targets in five of the previous six games, Heuerman had a whopping 11 targets in Week 9, translating to 10 catches, 83 yards and a touchdown.

Coming out of the bye week, we have to wait and see how coach Vance Joseph sets his offense, but early indications are the 2015 third-rounder could have a much bigger role in the second half of the season.

CHARGERS’ KICKING GAME FINALLY SETTLED

Despite the 7-2 record, the Los Angeles Chargers were still haunted by glimpses of their past, specifically their struggles in the kicking game.

Kicker Caleb Sturgis struggled early in the season and missed two games with a strained quad. He returned in Week 9 against Seattle, promptly missing two extra points and a field goal, although the Chargers hung on to win.

When Sturgis sat for two games, Los Angeles signed Mike Badgley to fill in, and he went 7-for-7 on extra points and 3-for-3 on field goals. After Sturgis’ putrid display against the Seahawks, he was released and the job given to Badgley full time.

He responded by going a perfect 4-for-4 on his kicks in Sunday’s win over Oakland, making him 14-for-14 in three games this season. It’s a small sample size, but if the Chargers have finally found a kicker they can rely on, they’ve become even more dangerous than before.