The Detroit Lions are coming off a road victory, but it doesn’t change the fact that their offense has been mired in a slump the past two months. This Sunday they’ll travel from the warm weather of Arizona to the freezing cold of Upstate New York, where they will face the Buffalo Bills at New Era Stadium. Normally a dome team, Detroit having to brave the cold is enough in the oddsmakers’ eyes to make it a slight underdog, as the Bills are 2.5-point favorites. Not a lot of scoring is expected, as the total is set at 38.5 points.
- Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last five games against Buffalo.
- Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
- Buffalo is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games after consecutive losses.
THIS SUNDAY I’M TAKING BUFFALO -2.5
While Detroit is coming off a win and Buffalo has lost two straight, just looking at the eye test shows that Buffalo is actually playing better football right now.
The offense has been much better since Josh Allen’s return, as he has combined a big arm with dangerous running ability. Since his return in Week 12, the Bills have averaged 21.3 points per game and topped 300 yards each game — something they had done just three times in the first 10 games. They’ve also topped 167 rushing yards in all three of those games, something they did just once all season before that.
On the Detroit side, the offense has been decimated by injuries, with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones both out for the year. In last week’s 17-3 win over Arizona, the Lions threw for just 98 yards, their sixth straight game (and eighth in the past nine contests) going under 250 passing yards. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has little time and few options to throw to, and the running game has been pedestrian at best.
The Bills are showing some life, having lost close games to Miami and the Jets, but the way they’re playing inspires more confidence. Add in the forecasted temperature of 2 degrees, and that is enough to sway me into believing the Bills win by a field goal.
JOSH ALLEN THEIR BEST PASSER AND RUSHER
Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen has only started eight games this season, but he’s really made his presence felt on the Bills roster.
Not only does he have more passing yards than Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley and Derek Anderson combined, but Allen also leads the Bills roster in rushing yards too.
Allen has rushed for 101, 135 and 99 yards in his past three games, compared to 75, 63 and 68 yards for all of the Bills running backs. The days of former Pro Bowler LeSean McCoy being the dominant back we all remember seem to be a thing of the past, as he’s rushed for 99 yards total over the last three games, including two carries for one yard last week before leaving with a hamstring injury.
It’s normally a bad sign when your quarterback is leading your team in rushing, but when he is as mobile and dynamic as Josh Allen, and your offense is actually scoring, who can say no?
PAGING KENNY GOLLADAY
For Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay, it was already well known that he’s the last man standing in the Detroit receiving corps, but following their passing ineptitude in Week 14, we’re guessing he can’t wait to get some help next season.
Going against the Arizona Cardinals and All-Pro cover cornerback Patrick Peterson was already a daunting task for Golladay. With Detroit throwing for a pathetic 98 yards, being unable to find another target to draw Peterson’s attention, Golladay was forced to slog through a Sunday with only four targets, turning into two catches and five yards.
Buffalo doesn’t have any corners quite at the level of Peterson, but if nobody else in the passing game can step up, Golladay can expect his final three games to feature a lot of double coverage and shadows from his opponent’s top cornerback … and not a lot of production.
