Two NFC North teams trending in opposite directions will renew acquaintances in Week 10 when the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears do battle at Soldier Field. Sportsbooks opened the Bears as 6.5-point home favorites with a total of 45.
- The Lions are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games vs the Bears.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Lions’ last five games vs the Bears (avg. combined score: 38.6).
- The Bears are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents (avg. losing margin: 9.2).
Bears haven’t been getting the job done against NFC North opponents
The Bears are on top of the NFC North with a 5-3 SU record, while the Lions are on the opposite end of the spectrum at 3-5. Detroit’s offensive line has been a disaster all season, and the Bears rank seventh in the NFL in sacks with 24. Khalil Mack, who didn’t play in Chicago’s last two games due to an ankle injury, is listed as day to day as of this writing. Even if Mack doesn’t play, Akiem Hicks and Aaron Lynch (three sacks apiece) could create headaches for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was sacked 10 times against the Minnesota Vikings last week.
The Lions have had a major upper hand in this series, however, as Detroit is 9-1 SU in its past 10 meetings with Chicago. When it comes to the total, the UNDER is paying out at a rapid rate. Four of the last five meetings between the Lions and Bears have gone UNDER, with an average combined score of 38.6 points. The Bears are also a measly 0-10 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents, with an average losing margin of 9.2 points.
Lions need to step up and protect their franchise QB
Detroit’s aforementioned 24-9 setback to the Vikings was the worst showing for the team since its embarrassing 48-17 blowout loss in Week 1 at the hands of the New York Jets. One positive takeaway for Lions fans and bettors from last week’s loss is the return of defensive end Ziggy Ansah, who suited up for the first time in six games after being out with a shoulder injury. Detroit’s defense did keep Vikings signal-caller Kirk Cousins in check, however, as the unit limited the quarterback to only 164 passing yards while also picking him off once.
The Lions have fared surprisingly well on the road, going 3-1 ATS in their past four road tilts. Detroit has cashed UNDER bets in 13 of its last 17 road games against teams within the division.
My pick: take the UNDER
I think this game is going to be a little closer than oddsmakers are expecting, and while I’m initially leaning toward the Bears on the spread, Matthew Stafford airing it out late in the game scares me a little bit, as a backdoor cover could easily ensue. Instead, I’m taking the UNDER, as past betting trends are pointing in that direction in this series.
