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Zeke Must Excel for Cowboys to Cash as Favorites vs Green Bay

Another all-American matchup takes place this weekend when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers travel to Dallas to challenge Dak Prescott and the Cowboys as small underdogs. While the Packers have dominated the Jerry Jones jalopy since 2009, the ’Boys are a much better football club of late and the Pack have had serious trouble as road underdogs the last half-decade.

SHARK BITES
  • The Packers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys are 0-2 SU and ATS in the 2 games they’ve turned the ball over this season.
  • The Packers are 3-11 SU as a road underdog since November 2012.

Splitting their two matchups last season, the Cowboys and Packers are very familiar with each other. Green Bay edged out Dallas in the divisional round of the playoffs last year in a game that Aaron Rodgers threw for 355 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t been great against the Cowboys in his career (3-3 in six starts) but he’s excelled against the rest of the NFC East and his team is 9-2 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread vs the division since 2013.

Looking more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, however, the Cowboys should have some defensive success against a Packers team that will be forced to start Aaron Jones, a third-string running back, after losing Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams to injuries. If the rookie RB has a good game, though, America’s Team could be screwed as the Cowboys are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in the last three games that they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards.

For the Cowboys, the key to success will be holding on to the football and keeping it on the ground. They’ve lost five of the last six games in which they’ve turned the ball over and the Packers finished 2016 with 17 interceptions – the second-highest total in the NFL.

Star running back Ezekiel Elliott seems to have put his distractions behind him, accumulating 233 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns in his last two games and if he has another good day against the green and gold, his team should have a good chance to win on Sunday.

When Zeke lined up against the Pack for the first time in Week 6 last year, he rushed for 157 yards and is bound to have another bountiful day vs Dom Capers’ pass-focused Nitro defense.

This is one of the tightest games on the Week 5 board and handicapping it won’t be easy. It will, however, be one of the better games of the weekend with the Cowboys looking to stay above water and the Packers coming off a thumping of a division rival.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news, check out our new podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check us out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Dallas Cowboys were listed as 2-point favorites at Bovada and other online sportsbooks, with the total listed at one point at 53.5.

A 30-14 result in favor of the Cowboys was the prediction by the OddsShark handicapping pick engine earlier this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Supporters of the Green Bay Packers have seen them go 3-1 and 2-2 ATS so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys are at 2-2 and 2-2 ATS. In totals betting, the Cowboys are 2-2, while the Packers are 3-1. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Dallas vs Green Bay injuries news.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Dallas Cowboys rated this week at No. 16 and the Green Bay Packers sitting at No. 4.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Dallas Cowboys' No. 14-ranked offense (23.5 PPG) against a Green Bay Packers defense that ranks No. 15 at 20.25 PPG. The Cowboys passing attack has averaged 229 yards per game, more than the Packers give up through the air (188.5 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Green Bay Packers own the league's No. 28-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 141 yards per game when on the road. Dallas, on the other hand, rates No. 6 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, the Packers got 4 passing scores out of Aaron Rodgers en route to a 35-14 win over the Bears on Thursday at Lambeau Field.

Last time out, Dak Prescott threw for 3 scores and 252 yards in a failed effort to defeat Los Angeles at AT&T Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
  • Green Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 11 games
  • Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • Dallas is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Dallas is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
  • Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Green Bay at Minnesota, Sunday, October 15
Dallas at San Francisco, Sunday, October 22

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