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Bucs Set to Silence Packers’ Stout Run Game

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

Two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history square off at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday – and one of them has emerged as an early favorite in NFL MVP betting. Aaron Rodgers has led the Green Bay Packers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) to an unblemished start entering a Sunday afternoon encounter with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Date/Time: October 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
  • TV Coverage: Fox
  • Opening Odds: Buccaneers -2.5 | O/U 56.5 (Line History)
  • Packers vs Buccaneers Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Buccaneers opened as 2.5-point favorites, but a flood of money on Green Bay has flipped that line to the Packers -2 or -2.5 depending on where you shop. The total has dropped from 56.5 to 54.

Green Bay News & Notes

The Packers took plenty of heat for not selecting a wide receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft – but that hasn’t had any impact on the Rodgers-led offense, which is averaging a robust 38 points through the first four games. Not surprisingly, Rodgers has been the catalyst, averaging nearly 295 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Owning a top-five rush attack (150.8 yards per game) isn’t too shabby, either, although the way the Packers employ their running backs makes it difficult to trust the OVER on any yardage props. Aaron Jones (65 carries, 374 yards, four TDs) has been elite but has seen between 15 and 18 carries in all four games, with Jamaal Williams getting six to eight attempts per game to date.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

Sunday represents a get-right opportunity for Brady, who looked mediocre in last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears (253 passing yards, one TD) and actually lost track of the number of downs remaining on the Buccaneers’ potential game-winning drive. He has been strong in two games at Raymond James Stadium this season, averaging 293 yards with six touchdowns and two INTs.

A strong showing from Brady will certainly help the Bucs’ chances of victory, but the run game might also play a significant role. The Buccaneers rank in the bottom quarter in the league in rushing yards per contest (99.4), but find themselves in a plus matchup against a Green Bay run defense allowing opponents to rack up an average of 4.8 yards per attempt.

Betting Pick: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-110)

The Buccaneers own the league’s best run defense, which should negate the impact of Jones and Williams sufficiently to allow the hosts to convert the cover.

Shark Bites
  • Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 after an ATS loss.
  • Green Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 road games vs Tampa Bay.