NFL

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos

Houston
Texans
5 - 3
Denver
Broncos
3 - 5
November 04, 2018, 4:05 PM EST
 | Empower Field at Mile High

Game Preview

Houston
Texans
5 - 3
Denver
Broncos
3 - 5
November 04, 2018, 4:05 PM EST
 | Empower Field at Mile High
  • The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 but have won their last five games to propel themselves right into the thick of the AFC South race. Despite their hot streak, they find themselves underdogs on the road against the Denver Broncos, whom oddsmakers set as 3-point favorites, with a total set at 46.5.  

    SHARK BITES
    • Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games heading into a bye week.
    • Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games.
    • The UNDER has hit in seven of Houston’s last 10 games.

    Texans vs Broncos Game Center

    MY PICK FOR SUNDAY: HOUSTON +3

    The Texans lost three straight games to start the season and looked all out of sorts. Too many turnovers on offense, and the defense was neither forcing turnovers nor being particularly effective in any area.

    They’ve since won five straight games, and their play during this streak has been a much different story. Houston has cut back on the turnovers, including not committing a single one in the last two games. The defense has been much better, yielding fewer than 300 total yards in three of the last four contests. The run game is picking up steam, as Lamar Miller has topped the 100-yard mark in consecutive weeks, while DeAndre Hopkins is third in the NFL in receiving yards and fourth in receiving touchdowns.

    Denver, on the other hand, is heading in the wrong direction. The Broncos opened the year with two victories but have lost five of their last six. The biggest culprit? The once-formidable defense, which this season has allowed at least 20 points in six of eight games and allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game.

    The next-biggest culprit has been the disappointing play of quarterback Case Keenum. Brought in to provide stability to Denver’s offense, Keenum has struggled, throwing a league-leading 10 interceptions, while also being sacked 22 times, the fifth-most in the NFL.

    One team has its offense getting in sync, the defense improving and is playing winning football. The other has defensive holes and a struggling offense and is trending downward. Although the Texans are a road underdog, I’m looking at them to not only cover but to win outright.

    ALL SIGNS POINT TO UNDER

    No matter how you cut it up, the trends scream that this game is going UNDER.  

    Five of Denver’s last seven games have gone UNDER (average combined score: 47.29). The UNDER has hit in four of Houston’s last five road games (average combined score: 43.4) and in seven of its last 10 games overall.

    Even head-to-head, four of the last five meetings between these clubs have seen the total finish UNDER (average combined score: 46.6).

    While those combined scores all hover around this Sunday’s total of 46.5, these two teams have had a recent trend of seeing their games land on the lower-scoring side. Houston will look to exploit Denver’s porous run defense, while the improved Texans D, which by no coincidence is rising as J.J. Watt looks fully past his two-year injury woes, will try to force Case Keenum into more turnovers, all which equal keeping points off the board.

    With Houston looking to maintain its division lead and Denver desperate to stay in the playoff hunt, I’d expect a hard-nosed contest, making the UNDER a very popular pick for bettors.

    TEXANS SUFFER BIG INJURY

    While Houston is riding a five-game win streak, its Week 8 contest did come at a cost as wide receiver Will Fuller will miss the rest of the season with a torn right ACL.

    A 2016 first-round pick, Fuller was one of the NFL’s premier No. 2 receivers, acting as a lethal threat alongside DeAndre Hopkins. He had 32 catches for 503 yards and four touchdowns, and his 11.7 yards per target was second in the NFL this season among players averaging at least six targets per game.

    With Fuller gone, Houston will either look to promote rookie Keke Coutee, who missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury, or veteran Sammie Coates. Another option for the Texans is to explore the trade market, with veteran receivers DeSean Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Pierre Garcon and Golden Tate all potentially on the move.

    Whatever route the Texans choose, it will be a slight downgrade from Fuller, who has shown great chemistry with quarterback Deshaun Watson, connecting for 11 touchdowns in 11 games played together.

Odds

Sunday, November 4 Sun Nov 4


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+1
-110
+116
o47
-115
-1
-110
-137
u47
-105
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+1
-105
-101
o46.5
-105
-1
-115
-119
u46.5
-115

Edge Finder

16.47
Total Score
19.71
194.41
Passing Yards
211.35
83.65
Rushing Yards
119.18
28:14
Time on Field
30:48
59.41
Number of Plays
60.94
4.68
Yards Per Play
5.42
16.47
Total Score
19.71
3.53
First Quarter
3.18
5.82
Second Quarter
6.24
2.00
Third Quarter
3.76
5.12
Fourth Quarter
6.53
194.41
Passing Yards
211.35
32.12
Pass Attempts
31.82
20.82
Pass Completions
20.82
2.59
Sacks
2.35
19.12
Sack Yards
15.47
9.34
Yards Per Pass
10.15
83.65
Rushing Yards
119.18
24.71
Rush Attempts
26.76
3.39
Yards Per Rush
4.45
0.88
Interceptions
0.53
1.06
Fumbles
0.71
0.41
Fumbles Lost
0.53
1.29
Total Turnovers
1.06
6.71
Penalties
4.88
57.53
Penalty Yards
41.82
28:14
Time on Field
30:48
59.41
Number of Plays
60.94
4.68
Yards Per Play
5.42
5.18
Punts
3.94
46.69
Punt Average
46.01
87.35
Return Yards
43.65

Head To Head

HOU
Stat Type DEN
2-4
Record
4-2
2-4
ATS
4-2
1-4-1
O/U
1-4-1
20.00
Score
26.17
121.83
Rush Yds
116.67
34.83
Pass Attempts
36.67
56.46
Completion %
59.55
217.67
Passing Yds
272.67
339.5
Total Yds
389.33
1.33
Turnovers
0.33
HOU
Stat Type DEN
1-2
Record
2-1
1-2
ATS
2-1
1-2
O/U
1-2
17.67
Score
29.67
126.33
Rush Yds
121.00
36.00
Pass Attempts
42.67
52.78
Completion %
56.25
189.33
Passing Yds
290.00
315.67
Total Yds
411
2.00
Turnovers
0.33
Oct 24/16 (1 of 6)
HOU
Stat Type DEN
Away
Home
9
Score
27
+8.5
ATS
-8.5
40 o
O/U
40 u
140
Rush Yds
190
41
Pass Attempts
25
53.66
Completion %
56.00
131
Passing Yds
157
271
Total Yds
347
2
Turnovers
0
Dec 22/13 (2 of 6)
HOU
Stat Type DEN
Home
Away
13
Score
37
+9.5
ATS
-9.5
53 o
O/U
53 u
87
Rush Yds
114
37
Pass Attempts
51
48.65
Completion %
62.75
153
Passing Yds
397
240
Total Yds
511
2
Turnovers
0
Sep 23/12 (3 of 6)
HOU
Stat Type DEN
Away
Home
31
Score
25
-1.5
ATS
+1.5
43.5 o
O/U
43.5 u
152
Rush Yds
59
30
Pass Attempts
52
56.67
Completion %
50.00
284
Passing Yds
316
436
Total Yds
375
2
Turnovers
1
Dec 26/10 (4 of 6)
HOU
Stat Type DEN
Away
Home
23
Score
24
-2
ATS
+2
49.5 o
O/U
49.5 u
91
Rush Yds
126
33
Pass Attempts
29
69.70
Completion %
55.17
310
Passing Yds
305
401
Total Yds
431
1
Turnovers
1
Dec 13/07 (5 of 6)
HOU
Stat Type DEN
Home
Away
31
Score
13
-2
ATS
+2
47 o
O/U
47 u
158
Rush Yds
72
27
Pass Attempts
39
59.26
Completion %
69.23
200
Passing Yds
236
358
Total Yds
308
1
Turnovers
0
Nov 7/04 (6 of 6)
HOU
Stat Type DEN
Away
Home
13
Score
31
+7
ATS
-7
44 o
O/U
44 u
103
Rush Yds
139
41
Pass Attempts
24
53.66
Completion %
66.67
228
Passing Yds
225
331
Total Yds
364
0
Turnovers
0

Team Records

HOU
Record DEN
5-3
All
3-5
3-1
Home
2-2
2-2
Away
1-3
3-5
ATS
3-4-1
1-3
ATS Home
1-2-1
2-2
ATS Away
2-2
3-5
O/U
3-5
2-2
O/U Home
1-3
1-3
O/U Away
2-2
HOU
Record DEN
4-2
All
1-4
2-0
Home
1-1
2-2
Away
0-3
3-3
ATS
1-4
1-1
ATS Home
0-2
2-2
ATS Away
1-2
2-4
O/U
1-4
1-1
O/U Home
0-2
1-3
O/U Away
1-2
HOU
Record DEN
2-1
All
1-2
0-0
Home
1-1
2-1
Away
0-1
2-1
ATS
1-2
0-0
ATS Home
0-2
2-1
ATS Away
1-0
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
HOU
Record DEN
5-3
All
3-5
3-1
Home
2-2
2-2
Away
1-3
3-5
ATS
3-4-1
1-3
ATS Home
1-2-1
2-2
ATS Away
2-2
3-5
O/U
3-5
2-2
O/U Home
1-3
1-3
O/U Away
2-2

Gametime Weather

Weather
2:00pm Overcast
11ºC / 52ºF
34% Humidity
1% Precipitation
91% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 8
mph

Injuries

NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries
NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries

Last 10 Games

DateOppScoreSULine/TotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Oct 25, 2018MIA42-23W-7.5/45W/O188239427116254370-1
Oct 21, 2018JAC20-7W+3.5/43W/U14113127270189259-3
Oct 14, 2018BUF20-13W-10/40.5L/U741422161001292290
Oct 7, 2018DAL19-16W-3.5/45.5L/U88374462981942920
Sep 30, 2018IND37-34W-1/48.5W/O11934746641437478-1
Sep 23, 2018NYG22-27L-6/44.5L/O593684271142653792
Sep 16, 2018TEN17-20L-3/41L/U1482894371001832831
Sep 9, 2018NE20-27L+6.5/49.5L/U167158325122267389-1
Dec 31, 2017IND13-22L+5.5/41L/U851242091461042501
Dec 25, 2017PIT6-34L+9/45.5L/U176512271042263302
View Game Logs
DateOppScoreSULine/TotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Oct 28, 2018KC23-30L+9/53.5W/U189222411492913401
Oct 18, 2018ARI45-10W-1/42W/O13117830969154223-4
Oct 14, 2018LAR20-23L+7/50W/U602973572701744440
Oct 7, 2018NYJ16-34L-1/42.5L/O92344436323189512-1
Oct 1, 2018KC23-27L+3.5/53.5L/U1592263851423044461
Sep 23, 2018BAL14-27L+5.5/46L/U120173293772653421
Sep 16, 2018OAK20-19W-6/45L/U168217385922813731
Sep 9, 2018SEA27-24W-3/42.5P/O146324470642423060
Dec 31, 2017KC24-27L-3/37.5L/O1102263361102693791
Dec 24, 2017WAS11-27L+3/39L/U159171330872993861
View Game Logs