To say it’s a shock that Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is retiring from the NFL is a massive understatement. The 29-year-old signal-caller has decided to hang up his cleats and move on to greener pastures but his decision has a ripple effect throughout the league.
We at Odds Shark have seen a massive shift in the Colts’ betting odds for Super Bowl futures, the AFC South division, regular-season win totals and the Week 1 spread.
Let’s break down this stunning choice and how it affects the short term and long term:
Indianapolis Colts - Super Bowl Futures
Colts fans everywhere were genuinely excited about the 2019 season. Although Andrew Luck was dealing with a calf injury, nobody in their right mind thought that he’d miss more than a game or two.
After 2018, the Colts were seen as a team on the rise and one that could compete for a Super Bowl. Luck had arguably the best season of his career when he threw 39 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, had a career-high completion percentage (67.3) and was only sacked 18 times while leading the Colts to 10 wins.
The Colts’ odds were 16-1 (+1600) to win the Super Bowl prior to Luck’s stunning announcement and Sportsbook has moved those odds to 50-1 (+5000).
Luck’s replacement at quarterback is Jacoby Brissett and while he is viewed as a great backup to have on your roster, the reality is that he will never measure up to Oliver Luck’s son’s natural talent and ability to make winning plays. It’s a huge step back for Indianapolis and oddsmakers know it.
Indianapolis Colts - Regular-Season Win Totals
After the Colts won 10 games in 2018, Sportsbook had Indy likely winning double-digit games again in 2019. The Colts’ O/U win total was at 9.5 as of August 21 with the OVER at -125. Now, the sportsbook has moved the Colts’ projected regular-season win total down to 6.5 with the OVER at +110, which means a huge regression is expected.
The Colts have an easier schedule at the start of the 2019 season and three of their first four games are against teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year. If bettors still think the Colts will be competitive, it is worth mentioning they have 11 games against teams that had losing records in 2018.
Indianapolis Colts – AFC South Odds
Although the Colts didn’t win the AFC South in 2018, no one was disputing that they were the best team and should roll to a division crown in 2019. They had an up-and-coming roster of blue-chippers and a quarterback in his prime. Sportsbook had the Colts at EVEN odds to win the division but with Luck retiring, they’ve sunk all the way to the bottom at +450.
I think their odds should be closer to +600 or higher because quarterback play is essential to a successful NFL team. Banking on Brissett to lead the Colts to victories over the likes of the Texans, Titans and Jaguars feels like a very tall order.
Week 1 Colts vs Chargers
I’m sure some bettors had their sights set on the Colts in Week 1 to pull off the upset vs the Chargers and oddsmakers clearly thought it would be a close game. The Sportsbook odds were Colts +3.5 but with no Luck, Indy has now become a 9.5-point underdog at some sportsbooks and the spread is all over the place depending on the shop.
However, the Chargers were a team that didn’t have much of a home-field advantage as they’re playing in a transitional stadium until their new one is complete in Hollywood. For a team that finished with double-digit wins, they had an ugly spread record at 2-6 ATS in eight home games and were a favorite in all of those contests.
I’d wait to hear more about how the Colts are doing in practice leading to Week 1 but backing Indy on the spread could be a profitable endeavor based on LA’s home track record.
In the meantime, Sportsbook has added some new betting props for Andrew Luck and whether he’ll play again in 2019 or 2020 and how many starts Jacoby Brissett will make this season: