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Colts Defense vs Texans Offense Points to UNDER Play

Indianapolis vs Houston Betting Odds

Deshaun Watson has had a strong season despite seeing his No. 1 receiver shipped out of town – but the degree of difficulty is even steeper the rest of the way as the Houston Texans host Indianapolis (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS). Houston (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) is riding a two-game winning streak but will be without electrifying wide receiver Will Fuller, who will miss six games following a positive PED test.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
  • Date/Time: December 6, 1 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: NRG Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Texans -2 | O/U 52.5 (Line History)
  • Colts vs Texans Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Texans opened this matchup as a slight favorite, but the odds have shifted all the way to -2.5 or -3 in Indy’s favor depending on where you look. The total, on the other hand, has remained steady at 52.5. 

Indianapolis News & Notes

Last week was certainly an eye-opener for the Colts, who were shellacked 45-26 by Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans in their worst loss of the season. Indy’s defense had been one of the top units in the NFL but has sagged significantly of late, having allowed 76 points over the last two games to drop to 10th overall in scoring defense.

Offensively, the Colts continue to be a revelation despite having little star power. Indianapolis enters Week 13 ranked ninth in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points per game and will look to capitalize on a Houston team allowing the 10th-most points. Among the daily fantasy plays on Indy, we’re most optimistic about running back Nyheim Hines thanks to his involvement in the passing game.

Houston News & Notes

The loss of Fuller is a significant one for a Texans team that would almost certainly have to win out in order to even have a shot at an AFC playoff spot. Fuller has stepped up in the absence of the traded DeAndre Hopkins, leading the team with a career-high 879 receiving yards (good for 11th in the league); his eight receiving touchdowns are also a career best.

Where does that leave the Houston offense against a suddenly leaky Colts defense? Look for Watson to set his sights on wideout Brandin Cooks, who is a chalky daily fantasy play that should easily exceed value this week. The new landscape also sets the stage for depth receiver Keke Coutee to take on a larger role; he’s worth a flyer as a bargain-basement play in tournaments.

Betting Pick: UNDER 52.5 (-110)

We like the Colts to right the ship defensively this week against a Texans team missing one of its top offensive weapons – and that development should be enough to keep this game below the total.

Shark Bites
  • The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs AFC South foes.
  • The Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the Colts’ last 7 games.