Many are calling it a Super Bowl 53 preview and while that might be a bit of hyperbole with just under half a season of football left to be played, the Chiefs and Rams are both legitimate contenders and I believe that their Week 11 MNF game will live up to the lofty expectations.
Sportsbook as mere 1-point favorites, the Rams received a major betting boost early in the week when the NFL determined that the turf at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City was unfit and the game was moved to Los Angeles. Since that decision, the spread has moved to 3.5 in favor of LA despite the majority of bets being placed on the Chiefs (as of Friday).
As for the total, we’ve not only got a high one, but at 63.5 this is the highest total in our NFL betting database – and everyone is still betting the OVER. The Rams and Chiefs are combining to score an average of 68.8 points this season so it’s hard to blame them but let’s take a closer look at the numbers to see if it’s the best bet for this game.
- The Chiefs’ 2018 road games have had an average of 67.2 combined points.
- The Rams are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 games against the Chiefs (20.33-point losing margin).
- The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS and 7-2 SU in their last 9 games as road underdogs.
What to Make of This Historic Total
There are plenty of adequate reasons for why Sportsbooks set this total so high and you’d have to be one of the biggest contrarians on the planet to bet the UNDER with any amount of confidence.
Not only are these teams both top three in scoring, they’re also both top three in offensive yards per game and neither has been playing spectacular defense.
KC’s defensive problems were well noted heading into the season but Wade Phillips’ unit was expected to be one of the best in the NFL. While they haven’t been awful on the season (23.1 points allowed per game), the Rams have given up more than 900 yards and a total of 76 points the last two weeks – including 273 rushing yards against the Seahawks – and they’re about to go head-to-head with one of the most efficient offensive units in the league.
According to our database, only two games in NFL history have closed with totals over 60 but this is by far the highest number we’ve ever seen. I lean OVER on this total but for me, it’s not the best bet available.
Chiefs Have Thrived as Road Dogs
Hitting the road in the NFL isn’t the easiest thing to do – unless you ask the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve won seven of their last nine games as road underdogs OUTRIGHT, covering the spread in all but one of those contests.
That impressive run includes a 15-point win against the Patriots in New England last season in which they scored 42 points and a five-point win against the Steelers at Heinz Field earlier this year.
The point being, this team travels extremely well and I don’t completely understand why the move from Mexico City to LA made such a big difference to the spread. KC will likely have as many – if not more – fans as the Rams at the Coliseum on Monday night and I think the very small home-field advantage LA normally holds will be completely nullified by transplants (or implants since it’s LA) and fans who decided to make the trip for this marquee contest.
Best bet for Chiefs vs Rams: Chiefs OVER Team Total (30)
If I hadn’t made it clear, I like the Chiefs in this spot but I don’t necessarily love betting against the Rams. Because of that, I’ve decided to put my faith in Patrick Mahomes’ arm and Andy Reid’s ability to draw up an effective offensive game plan and my best bet for the Week 11 Monday nighter is for the Chiefs to go OVER their team total of 30.
KC has gone OVER that total in six of 10 games this season and came really close to doing so in their other four games (30, 30, 27, 26) against some really good defenses (Denver x2, Jacksonville, Arizona).
This game could realistically have 80 or more points at the end of the day and I don’t hate a play on the straight OVER either.
