NFL

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Kansas City
Chiefs
9 - 1
Los Angeles
Rams
9 - 1
November 19, 2018, 8:15 PM EST
 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Game Preview

Kansas City
Chiefs
9 - 1
Los Angeles
Rams
9 - 1
November 19, 2018, 8:15 PM EST
 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
  • Many are calling it a Super Bowl 53 preview and while that might be a bit of hyperbole with just under half a season of football left to be played, the Chiefs and Rams are both legitimate contenders and I believe that their Week 11 MNF game will live up to the lofty expectations.

    Sportsbook as mere 1-point favorites, the Rams received a major betting boost early in the week when the NFL determined that the turf at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City was unfit and the game was moved to Los Angeles. Since that decision, the spread has moved to 3.5 in favor of LA despite the majority of bets being placed on the Chiefs (as of Friday).

    As for the total, we’ve not only got a high one, but at 63.5 this is the highest total in our NFL betting database – and everyone is still betting the OVER. The Rams and Chiefs are combining to score an average of 68.8 points this season so it’s hard to blame them but let’s take a closer look at the numbers to see if it’s the best bet for this game.

    SHARK BITES
    • The Chiefs’ 2018 road games have had an average of 67.2 combined points.
    • The Rams are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 games against the Chiefs (20.33-point losing margin).
    • The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS and 7-2 SU in their last 9 games as road underdogs.

    Chiefs vs Rams Game Center

    What to Make of This Historic Total

    There are plenty of adequate reasons for why Sportsbooks set this total so high and you’d have to be one of the biggest contrarians on the planet to bet the UNDER with any amount of confidence.

    Not only are these teams both top three in scoring, they’re also both top three in offensive yards per game and neither has been playing spectacular defense.

    KC’s defensive problems were well noted heading into the season but Wade Phillips’ unit was expected to be one of the best in the NFL. While they haven’t been awful on the season (23.1 points allowed per game), the Rams have given up more than 900 yards and a total of 76 points the last two weeks – including 273 rushing yards against the Seahawks – and they’re about to go head-to-head with one of the most efficient offensive units in the league.

    According to our database, only two games in NFL history have closed with totals over 60 but this is by far the highest number we’ve ever seen. I lean OVER on this total but for me, it’s not the best bet available.

    Chiefs Have Thrived as Road Dogs

    Hitting the road in the NFL isn’t the easiest thing to do – unless you ask the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve won seven of their last nine games as road underdogs OUTRIGHT, covering the spread in all but one of those contests.

    That impressive run includes a 15-point win against the Patriots in New England last season in which they scored 42 points and a five-point win against the Steelers at Heinz Field earlier this year.

    The point being, this team travels extremely well and I don’t completely understand why the move from Mexico City to LA made such a big difference to the spread. KC will likely have as many – if not more – fans as the Rams at the Coliseum on Monday night and I think the very small home-field advantage LA normally holds will be completely nullified by transplants (or implants since it’s LA) and fans who decided to make the trip for this marquee contest.

    Best bet for Chiefs vs Rams: Chiefs OVER Team Total (30)

    If I hadn’t made it clear, I like the Chiefs in this spot but I don’t necessarily love betting against the Rams. Because of that, I’ve decided to put my faith in Patrick Mahomes’ arm and Andy Reid’s ability to draw up an effective offensive game plan and my best bet for the Week 11 Monday nighter is for the Chiefs to go OVER their team total of 30.

    KC has gone OVER that total in six of 10 games this season and came really close to doing so in their other four games (30, 30, 27, 26) against some really good defenses (Denver x2, Jacksonville, Arizona).

    This game could realistically have 80 or more points at the end of the day and I don’t hate a play on the straight OVER either.

Odds

Monday, November 19 Mon Nov 19


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+1
-110
+115
o64
-110
-1
-110
-135
u64
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+3
+100
+151
o63.5
-110
-3
-120
-171
u63.5
-110

Edge Finder

29.40
Total Score
25.77
288.45
Passing Yards
277.52
119.10
Rushing Yards
95.67
31:08
Time on Field
30:00
66.95
Number of Plays
63.19
6.09
Yards Per Play
5.91
29.40
Total Score
25.77
7.20
First Quarter
3.95
8.30
Second Quarter
8.73
5.70
Third Quarter
5.91
7.60
Fourth Quarter
7.18
288.45
Passing Yards
277.52
39.90
Pass Attempts
35.67
26.90
Pass Completions
24.05
1.85
Sacks
1.73
11.35
Sack Yards
13.32
10.72
Yards Per Pass
11.54
119.10
Rushing Yards
95.67
25.20
Rush Attempts
25.71
4.73
Yards Per Rush
3.72
0.80
Interceptions
0.95
1.40
Fumbles
0.73
0.65
Fumbles Lost
0.41
1.45
Total Turnovers
1.36
5.85
Penalties
4.09
48.55
Penalty Yards
34.09
31:08
Time on Field
30:00
66.95
Number of Plays
63.19
6.09
Yards Per Play
5.91
2.50
Punts
3.05
46.07
Punt Average
44.24
66.30
Return Yards
58.82

Head To Head

KC
Stat Type LAR
6-0
Record
0-6
6-0
ATS
0-6
3-3
O/U
3-3
37.17
Score
16.83
152.00
Rush Yds
77.50
26.50
Pass Attempts
37.00
64.15
Completion %
62.61
194.17
Passing Yds
233.50
346.17
Total Yds
311
0.33
Turnovers
2.83
KC
Stat Type LAR
3-0
Record
0-3
3-0
ATS
0-3
0-3
O/U
0-3
30.67
Score
12.33
179.67
Rush Yds
89.33
24.00
Pass Attempts
36.67
68.06
Completion %
60.91
174.00
Passing Yds
202.67
353.67
Total Yds
292
0.67
Turnovers
2.00
Oct 26/14 (1 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Home
Away
34
Score
7
-7.5
ATS
+7.5
44.5 o
O/U
44.5 u
143
Rush Yds
84
28
Pass Attempts
25
85.71
Completion %
60.00
218
Passing Yds
116
361
Total Yds
200
1
Turnovers
1
Dec 19/10 (2 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Away
Home
27
Score
13
+3
ATS
-3
42.5 o
O/U
42.5 u
210
Rush Yds
69
29
Pass Attempts
43
51.72
Completion %
48.84
173
Passing Yds
155
383
Total Yds
224
1
Turnovers
2
Nov 5/06 (3 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Away
Home
31
Score
17
+3
ATS
-3
48.5 o
O/U
48.5 u
186
Rush Yds
115
15
Pass Attempts
42
66.67
Completion %
73.81
131
Passing Yds
337
317
Total Yds
452
0
Turnovers
3
Dec 8/02 (4 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Home
Away
49
Score
10
-4.5
ATS
+4.5
45.5 o
O/U
45.5 u
180
Rush Yds
32
16
Pass Attempts
35
68.75
Completion %
68.57
113
Passing Yds
170
293
Total Yds
202
0
Turnovers
3
Oct 22/00 (5 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Home
Away
54
Score
34
+7
ATS
-7
55 o
O/U
55 u
106
Rush Yds
66
34
Pass Attempts
46
64.71
Completion %
65.22
362
Passing Yds
362
468
Total Yds
428
0
Turnovers
4
Oct 26/97 (6 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Away
Home
28
Score
20
-5.5
ATS
+5.5
38.5 o
O/U
38.5 u
87
Rush Yds
99
37
Pass Attempts
31
54.05
Completion %
58.06
168
Passing Yds
261
255
Total Yds
360
0
Turnovers
4
Sep 25/94 (7 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Home
Away
0
Score
16
-13
ATS
+13
44 o
O/U
44 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
54.05
Completion %
54.05
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Nov 10/91 (8 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Away
Home
27
Score
20
-4.5
ATS
+4.5
38.5 o
O/U
38.5 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
54.05
Completion %
54.05
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 20/85 (9 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Home
Away
0
Score
16
0
ATS
-0
40.5 o
O/U
40.5 u
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
54.05
Completion %
54.05
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0
Nov 28/82 (10 of 10)
KC
Stat Type LAR
Away
Home
14
Score
20
ATS
O/U
0
Rush Yds
0
0
Pass Attempts
0
54.05
Completion %
54.05
0
Passing Yds
0
0
Total Yds
0
0
Turnovers
0

Team Records

KC
Record LAR
9-1
All
9-1
5-0
Home
5-0
4-1
Away
4-1
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
3-2
ATS Home
2-2-1
5-0
ATS Away
2-3
5-5
O/U
5-5
1-4
O/U Home
3-2
4-1
O/U Away
2-3
KC
Record LAR
7-1
All
6-1
3-0
Home
4-0
4-1
Away
2-1
7-1
ATS
2-4-1
2-1
ATS Home
1-2-1
5-0
ATS Away
1-2
4-4
O/U
4-3
0-3
O/U Home
2-2
4-1
O/U Away
2-1
KC
Record LAR
3-0
All
4-0
1-0
Home
2-0
2-0
Away
2-0
2-1
ATS
2-2
0-1
ATS Home
1-1
2-0
ATS Away
1-1
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
KC
Record LAR
9-1
All
9-1
5-0
Home
5-0
4-1
Away
4-1
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
3-2
ATS Home
2-2-1
5-0
ATS Away
2-3
5-5
O/U
5-5
1-4
O/U Home
3-2
4-1
O/U Away
2-3

Gametime Weather

Weather
5:00pm Mostly Cloudy
19ºC / 67ºF
49% Humidity
1% Precipitation
63% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 3
mph

Injuries

NamePositionInj Desc
Patrick MahomesQBIs probable Sunday vs Philadelphia, Ankle
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRLeft last game, is "?" Sunday vs Philadelphia, Knee
Justin WatsonWRIs probable Sunday vs Philadelphia, Illness
Mecole HardmanWRIs OUT Sunday vs Philadelphia, Pelvis
Willie Gay Jr.LBLeft last game, is "?" Sunday vs Philadelphia, Shoulder
Lucas NiangTPUP, Knee
L'Jarius SneedSIs probable Sunday vs Philadelphia, Concussion
Tershawn WhartonDTIs out for season, ACL
Kadarius ToneyWRLeft last game, is "?" Sunday vs Philadelphia, Ankle
Justyn RossWRIR, Foot
NamePositionInj Desc
No Reported Injuries

Last 10 Games

DateOppScoreSULine/TotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Nov 11, 2018ARI26-14W-16/49.5L/U11821233094166260-2
Nov 4, 2018CLE37-21W-8/51.5W/O1393604991022863880
Oct 28, 2018DEN30-23W-9/53.5L/U49291340189222411-1
Oct 21, 2018CIN45-10W-6.5/56.5W/U198353551651742390
Oct 14, 2018NE40-43L+3.5/59.5W/O943524461733275001
Oct 7, 2018JAC30-14W-3/48W/U126298424101401502-3
Oct 1, 2018DEN27-23W-3.5/53.5W/U142304446159226385-1
Sep 23, 2018SF38-27W-6/53.5W/O773073841782284060
Sep 16, 2018PIT42-37W+4/52.5W/O127322449334424751
Sep 9, 2018LAC38-28W+3/48.5W/O106256362123418541-2
View Game Logs
DateOppScoreSULine/TotalATSOFF. RUSHOFF. PASSOFF. TOTALDEF. RUSHDEF. PASSDEF. TOTALTO
Nov 11, 2018SEA36-31W-9.5/51L/O149307456273141414-1
Nov 4, 2018NO35-45L-2/57L/O923914831413464870
Oct 28, 2018GB29-27W-7.5/57L/U135281416106253359-1
Oct 21, 2018SF39-10W-9/52W/U146185331107121228-4
Oct 14, 2018DEN23-20W-7/50L/U270174444602973570
Oct 7, 2018SEA33-31W-7.5/50.5L/O1553134681901833732
Sep 27, 2018MIN38-31W-7/49P/O10045655654392446-1
Sep 23, 2018LAC35-23W-7/49W/O1713505211412153560
Sep 16, 2018ARI34-0W-11/43W/U9034243254831370
Sep 10, 2018OAK33-13W-6/47.5W/U14022536595300395-3
View Game Logs