Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns

The Browns were 3-26-1 straight up and 10-19-1 against the spread in Hue Jackson’s final 30 games. Cleveland’s head coach was fired, along with offensive coordinator Todd Haley, a day after a 33-18 loss at Pittsburgh dropped the Browns to 2-5-1 on the season and 5-3 against the spread. That’s right, half of the Browns’ ATS wins over the past 30 games have come this season.

A Brandon McManus 36-yard field goal was the difference between the Chiefs’ ATS record improving to 8-0 rather than falling to 7-1. Denver’s kicker converted with less than two minutes to go to cut Kansas City’s lead from 10 to seven when they were -9. The Chiefs are still 11-1 ATS over their past 12 games dating back to last season.

The Chiefs open as 8.5-point road favorites, the Browns moneyline is +285 and the point total opened at 52.5 before it pulled back to 52.

Chiefs vs Browns Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 8

Browns – By trading Josh Gordon to the Patriots and losing Rashard Higgins to a knee injury, the Browns passing game is very limited. Baker Mayfield averaged 318.5 pass yards per game in his first two starts, but only 211 over the past three. His offensive line is doing him no favors as the rookie quarterback was running for his life much of Week 8 and hobbled off the field late in the game.

Rookie running back Nick Chubb has rushed 36 times for 145 yards or 4.0 yards per rush in two games since replacing Carlos Hyde as the lead back.

Cleveland’s offense averaged just 4.5 yards per play over the past three weeks, which ranks 29th in the NFL.

Chiefs – On a day where Kareem Hunt was held to 3.1 yards per carry and Tyreek Hill to three receptions before having to leave the game with a groin injury, Patrick Mahomes and Sammy Watkins connected eight times for 107 yards and two scores.

Their 23rd-ranked rush defense allowed Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker to combine for 173 rush yards on 27 carries.

NEXT LEVEL TREND: END-ZONE ALLERGIES

After averaging 25.5 points per game in September, the Browns offense has regressed significantly and averaged just 16.8 points per game the past four weeks. Over the past three years, NFL teams that score fewer than 17 points in a game are 58-384-2 straight up and 71-362-12 against the spread.

NEXT LEVEL TREND: END-ZONE ADDICTION

Two months into the season, the Chiefs’ nose for the end zone remains the same. They’re averaging 36.3 points per game this season and averaged 36.3 points per game in October. Over the past three years, NFL teams that score more than 36 points in a game are 124-10 SU and 118-2-4 ATS.

CLEVELAND, OHIO FORECAST

Partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 50s and a small chance of showers. The wind shouldn’t play a factor.

Keep tabs on Browns kicker Greg Joseph’s employment status this week. After missing a field goal and extra point at Pittsburgh, there’s a chance he follows Hue and Todd out the door. Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker has converted 13 of 14 field-goal attempts and 35 of 36 extra points.

MY PICK

Although they’ve only met four times in Cleveland over the past 16 seasons, it’s the first time since 2006 that Kansas City has been a road favorite in this matchup. The teams are 2-2 ATS in the previous four meetings. This will mark only the fourth time since 1992 that the Chiefs have been favored by 8.5 or more points on the road and they’re 1-2 ATS in the previous three, which includes a 12-9 straight-up loss at the Giants last season when favored by 10.

The only way I can see Cleveland covering is if Chubb and Duke Johnson follow Denver’s lead and run the ball, control the clock and keep the Chiefs offense off the field. I don’t see that happening.

Chiefs cover.