Expect Slumping Saints To Get Back On Track

All New Orleans (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) wants for Christmas is to snap a two-game losing streak and gain ground on Green Bay for the top seed in the NFC. The Saints have a good chance of doing just that when they host the Vikings (6-8, 6-8), who are 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

This line opened a half-point lower than when the Vikings visited New Orleans in last year’s NFC wild-card round, a game Minnesota won 26-20 in OT as a 7.5-point underdog. This week’s point spread briefly dipped below 7 at some sportsbooks before settling back onto the key number at the time of writing, while the total had dropped a point to 52.

Minnesota News & Notes

The Vikings’ playoff chances are on life-support following Sunday’s 33-27 loss to Chicago that dropped Minny to 6-8 SU. The Vikes now need to win their final two games and get a lot of help in order to have a chance at an NFC wild-card spot. To put things into perspective, fivethirtyeight.com gives Minnesota a two percent chance of qualifying for postseason play.

Defensive struggles have been the biggest factor in the Vikings’ 0-5 ATS skid. Against Chicago, Minnesota allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, rarely pressured quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and forced just one punt.

The Vikings were playing their third straight game without All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendricks, who still was the team’s leading tackler going into last weekend, and facing the Saints on a short week hurts the chances of Kendricks being able to return from his left calf strain.

At least Minnesota’s kicking game seems to be back on track. Dan Bailey, who missed three extra points and four field goals in his previous two games, was perfect against the Bears on his two field goals and three extra-point attempts. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson also set a franchise rookie record last week with his 73rd catch of the season, finishing the contest with eight receptions for 104 yards.

New Orleans News & Notes

Last week against the Chiefs, Drew Brees looked like a quarterback who hadn’t played in a month. The veteran misfired on his first four attempts and went 5-for-16 for 87 yards and an interception in the Sportsbook half.

Brees admitted after the game that he may have been forcing the ball downfield too much instead of taking smaller gains underneath, adding that he still doesn’t quite feel 100 percent recovered from the rib and lung injuries that sidelined him for four games.

Contributing to Brees’ struggles against Kansas City was the limited supporting cast around him. Star receiver Michael Thomas has been shut down for the rest of the regular season to heal a nagging ankle injury, while Deonte Harris is also on injured reserve.

Making matters worse, Tre’Quan Smith left Sunday’s game early with an ankle injury. The absence of three wideouts could make New Orleans throw a bit more to running back Alvin Kamara, who hasn’t had more than 44 receiving yards in a game since mid-November.

The Saints’ two-game losing streak marks the first time they’ve lost consecutive games since 2017. If history is any guide, we should expect a focused effort from Sean Payton’s crew this week. New Orleans is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following consecutive SU losses dating back to Payton’s second season in 2007.