Josh Allen rushed for 138 yards, but it wasn’t enough as three turnovers and 13 penalties for 120 yards cost the Bills a road win and cover at Miami, 21-17. Buffalo falls to 4-8 overall and 5-7 against the spread. After covering their two previous games, the Bills are 2-4 against the spread in their past six contests.
The Jets were 0-for-3 in the red zone and settled for five Jason Myers field goals, which is how New York blew a 16-0 halftime lead in a 26-22 loss at Tennessee. The Jets are now 3-9 overall and 4-8 against the spread. New York covering the +10 was its first ATS win in six games.
Buffalo opened as a 3.5-point favorite, the Jets moneyline is +160 as we wait on Sam Darnold’s status, and the point total opened at 40 but is trending down. As 7-point road dogs and led by Matt Barkley, the Bills beat the Jets 41-10 a month ago. However, at home, Buffalo is 2-5 ATS over its past seven games against the AFC East.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bills’ last 10 games (avg. combined score: 37.0).
- The Bills are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home vs teams with losing records.
- The Jets are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 13
Jets – Sam Darnold is expected to return for the Jets this week. In his absence, Josh McCown was 0-3, averaging 180 passing yards per game, with one touchdown and four interceptions. New York converted just 25 percent of its third downs and made five trips to the red zone in McCown’s 12 quarters as starter.
Running back Isaiah Crowell’s 98 rush yards were the most since Week 5 and his 21 carries and four receptions were both season highs.
Bills – Allen’s 138 rush yards against the Dolphins were the sixth-most by a quarterback since the merger as he joined Mike Vick, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III’s fraternity of mobile signal-callers.
The Bills outgained the Dolphins 415-175 and still lost and failed to cover. Buffalo loses the most yards per game on penalties and has seen its season average of 72.7 tick up to 76.7 penalty yards per game over the past three games. It’s hard to win and/or cover when you’re moving backward and/or allowing the opposition to march forward.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: LET’S KICK IT!
For the second time this season, Jets kicker Jason Myers booted five or more field goals. Granted, Josh McCown and the offense needs to be able to convert in the red zone, but history suggests that booting that many three-pointers isn’t all bad. Since 2013, teams whose kicker connects on five or more field goals in a game are 43-9-1 straight up and 42-10-1 against the spread and 66-14-1 SU and ATS since 2008. Myers MVP?
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: KEEP THE NOSE UP
The Jets hope to snap their six-game losing streak this weekend. Since 2016, teams that have lost six consecutive games are 2-11 straight up and 3-10 against the spread in their next game.
BUFFALO, NEW YORK FORECAST
Partly cloudy with temperatures around 30 degrees and 10 percent chance of rain. Winds shouldn’t impact the game.
Myers is now 23 of 25 on field goals and 20-for-21 on extra points. Buffalo’s Stephen Hauschka missed a field-goal try for the first time this season in the loss to the Dolphins. He’s 16-for-17 on field goals and 15-for-15 on extra points.
MY LEAN
If Darnold does indeed return this week, he’ll need to knock some rust off after missing three games due to a nagging foot injury and AT Buffalo isn’t an ideal locale. Josh Allen has put the Bills in a position to win back-to-back weeks and with the way Buffalo’s defense has performed, it’s easy to like the home team in this spot, even at 3.5. I’m always eager to buy the half-point as an insurance policy. With Buffalo hosting, the -3 suggests these two teams are evenly matched, but Allen’s play the past two weeks gives me hope that Buffalo is 4-5 points better these days.
