Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts (IND +2.5, O/U 47)
Baltimore hits the road to Indianapolis where Philip Rivers and the 5-2 Colts await the reigning MVP. Lamar Jackson hopes to return to that MVP form after coughing up four turnovers against the Steelers in Week 8.
It’s shaping up to be a difficult matchup against a Colts defense that is in the top five in yards per play and points per game allowed through seven games, as Jackson will also be without top offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley. Rivers will attempt to win for the sixth time in his last seven starts and keep the Colts undefeated at home.
Sportsbooks are anticipating a close matchup between these two 5-2 teams, with Baltimore currently listed as a 2.5-point favorite on the road.
Our model is predicting a much more favorable outcome for the visiting Ravens, projecting a final score of 26.3-16.8 in favor of John Harbaugh’s squad. Therefore, we have a rather sizable edge on Baltimore with the spread at only 2.5 points. Our model suggests a $129 wager on BALTIMORE -2.5 for an average $100 bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NFL model was 129-75 ATS (63.2%) for +26.85 units and 117-98 (54.4%) on O/Us for +21.04 units in the 2019-20 season, producing a total profit of $4,789. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.
Why will Baltimore cover the spread?
- Our model is expecting the Baltimore defense to shut down Rivers and the Indianapolis passing attack. The Ravens enter allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt at 5.9 yards, which has been the Colts’ strength on offense. Their 7.8 yards per pass attempt ranks fifth-best in the NFL, while their 3.5 yards per rush attempt is dead last in the league. If Baltimore can slow down Old Man Rivers, they have a great chance to emerge victorious.
- The Colts offense has faced a string of bad defenses to begin the season and still doesn’t rate well on a per play basis. Their 5.7 yards per play is 18th in the NFL despite facing the Jaguars (31st in yards per play allowed), Bengals (30th), Jets (26th), Vikings (24th) and Lions (19th). Their only matchup against a top-10 defense came against the Bears in Week 4 when they managed a paltry 4.2 yards per play and scored just four field goals in the final 53 minutes of game time.
How to bet the total in Ravens vs Colts:
Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 26.3-16.8 in favor of the Ravens. With 43.1 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 47, we have a sizable edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $127 wager on UNDER 47 for $100 average bettors.
Need-to-know stats for Ravens vs Colts:
- 321.7 total yards vs 276.0 total yards - The Ravens enter with a slight yardage advantage in our model’s projections. We’re anticipating a defensive battle between these two teams, with our projection falling short of 600 total yards. Baltimore has a slight edge in passing yardage projection and an even larger discrepancy in rushing yardage, as Baltimore leads the NFL with 5.5 yards per carry while Indianapolis is last with 3.5 yards per carry.
- 4 catches, 45.3 yards, 0.47 TDs (Andrews), 4 catches, 44.7 yards, 0.38 TDs (Brown) - Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are the focal points in Baltimore’s low-volume passing attack. They have at least 17 targets more than their next-closest teammate and have combined for seven of the Ravens’ 12 receiving touchdowns. Both should have solid fantasy outings on Sunday even with our model only projecting Lamar Jackson for 27 pass attempts. If that number gets into the 30s, we could see Andrews and Hollywood Brown experience spiked outputs.
- 18/30, 165.4 yards, 0.92 TDs, 1.36 INTs - We’re projecting a rough outing here from Philip Rivers. Baltimore blitzes at the highest rate in the league and has pressured opposing quarterbacks on over 26 percent of their dropbacks (fourth-most). We’re anticipating the 38-year-old Rivers to manage just 5.5 yards per pass attempt and struggle to put points on the board, as he averaged more interceptions than touchdown passes in our simulations.
