NFL Prime-Time Games Betting: UNDERs On A Roll

No scoring? No problem!

It’s UNDER season in the NFL. As exciting as this gridiron campaign has been to date, the points haven’t been flowing as they have in seasons past.

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For some fans, low-scoring games are dull and monotonous. But just because the end zone has been extra hard to find in 2022 doesn’t mean bettors can’t cash out on some sweet profits. That’s why we’ve amassed the NFL Prime-Time Games Betting Report to map it all out.

Before we jump right in, be sure to check out our other NFL odds pages, like the ever-popular NFL MVP odds or the 2022-23 Super Bowl odds. 

NFL Prime-Time Games Betting: OVER/UNDER Records

So, exactly how often is the UNDER hitting this year? Overall, after Week 17, the UNDER was 141-111-3. That 55.29 percent success rate is significant, creating a trend NFL bettors can capitalize on. 

The UNDER success applies to prime-time games, too. Under the bright lights (before Week 18), the UNDER is 36-22-1 (61 percent). Early in the year, the strategy was very easy: hammer the UNDER. The tide turned briefly, though, as the OVER hit in nine of 12, moving the prime-time OVER/UNDER closer to even.

The trend has rebounded again now, as the UNDER has gone 16-4 since the end of Week 12. 

In just a moment, we’ll zero in on which teams follow an OVER or UNDER trend in prime time.

NFL Prime-Time Games Schedule

The Bills, Bengals, Buccaneers, Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots, Packers, Rams and 49ers will all play at least four prime-time games before season’s end.

NFL Prime-Time Games Betting: Which Teams Are Worth Following

Through 17 weeks,  the Ravens are kings of the UNDER at 12-4. Other notables include the Broncos, Jets, Buccaneers, Titans and Commanders, who are all at 11-5 on the UNDER. The Bills, another team with a significant prime-time presence this year, are 10-5 U.

Keep those teams in mind for UNDER betting, especially when they play each other.

Buffalo Bills (10-5 UNDER Record, 4-2 U in Prime Time)

Buffalo appears to be the most surprising entrant on the list, as its A-grade offense lends well to high-scoring affairs. Perhaps the sportsbooks recognize this and raise the O/U bar. Either way, the Bills have hit the UNDER 10 of 15 times, with their average score dropping 2.4 points below the O/U threshold.

Sportsbook

The UNDER has hit in three of the last four Bills prime-time games: Week 8 vs Packers, Week 12 vs Lions (Thanksgiving) and Week 13 vs Patriots. The total went OVER during the Saturday evening game in Week 15 against the Dolphins.

Buffalo was slated to play the Bengals on Monday night in Week 17, but that game was suspended when Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field and was taken away in an ambulance. It’s unclear when that game will be resumed.

Week 18 Prime-Time Games

Since it’s our final week of handicapping prime-time regular-season games, let’s take a look at each matchup this upcoming week. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

This game is a little tricky as the Chiefs (8-8 O/U) and the Raiders (8-7-1 O/U/P) are pretty neutral on their totals. Lately, though, both clubs have hit the OVER. Kansas City and Las Vegas are both 2-1 on the OVER in the last three games.

Given the Chiefs are 3-2 on the OVER in prime time this year, plus they also lead the NFL in points per game (29.1), I think this is a rare prime-time game that might break our UNDER betting trend. 

Prediction: OVER 53 Points

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

This game is a ton of fun, as the Sportsbook wins the AFC South and clinches a playoff spot. As far as the total goes, the Jags are 8-8 O/U, while the Titans are 11-5 on the UNDER. 

Obviously, Tennessee’s O/U record stands out. The Titans have lost six games in a row, and the UNDER is 4-2 during that span. Conversely, Jacksonville is on a four-game winning streak, with the UNDER going 2-2.

As of Tuesday, the total sits at a modest 38.5. When the two teams played earlier this year, the total went OVER as the Jaguars won 36-22. Those numbers would suggest this game is destined for the OVER. However, Jacksonville is 2-0 on the UNDER when the total is less than 41. 

Prediction: UNDER 38.5 Points

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 8:20 P.M. ET

A potential playoff spot is on the line Sunday evening when the Packers host the Lions on Sunday Night Football. If Green Bay wins, it makes the playoffs. If Detroit wins and Seattle loses, the Pride get the final NFC playoff spot.

This will be a high-stakes affair, and, as of Tuesday, the total is set at 49. The point total was minuscule when the Packers and Lions played at Ford Field in Week 9 this year, as Detroit won 15-9 and easily cashed the UNDER 49.5. Green Bay is coming off a high-scoring beatdown of the Vikings last week, but with a 49.5-point total in Week 18 and the cold elements of Lambeau Field, I’m sticking with our trend and recommending the UNDER.

Prediction: UNDER 49 Points