Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Jameis Winston’s fourth interception of Week 8, and 10th in four games, resulted in a Cincinnati pick-six and a 34-16 Bengals lead late in the third quarter. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick, who erased the 18-point deficit over the next 16 minutes, tying the game up at 34. While the Buccaneers did end up losing 37-34 on a last-second field goal, Fitzmagic helped cover the +3.5. Tampa was on its way to 0-5 ATS in the past five games before the veteran quarterback rallied the troops.

As 2.5-point home dogs to Baltimore in Week 8, Carolina turned three Ravens turnovers into 13 points in a 36-21 win to improve to 5-2 on the season and 4-3 against the spread. The Panthers have covered in back-to-back games, something they’ve only accomplished twice in their past 12 games dating back to last season.

The Panthers opened as 5.5-point home favorites before the spread swelled to -7. The Buccaneers moneyline is +226 and the point total opened at 53.5 before it moved to 54. Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 5.5 or more points.

Buccaneers vs Panthers Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 8

Panthers – Carolina dropped 36 points on Baltimore’s top-ranked defense, which had allowed 14.4 points per game. With four more red-zone conversions in Week 8, the Panthers have converted seven of eight trips to the red zone the past two games.

The Panthers now rank sixth in the NFL in turnover margin at +6.

Buccaneers – Dirk Koetter named Ryan Fitzpatrick his Week 9 starter during Monday’s press conference. What’s that old NFL idiom? “If you play two quarterbacks, you don’t have one.”

The Buccaneers lost rookie running back Ronald Jones for several weeks due to a hamstring injury. Peyton Barber will split time with third-down back Jacquizz Rodgers. Barber has rushed for 80-plus yards in two of his past three games. The Panthers allow 95.9 rush yards per game.

NEXT LEVEL TREND: CAROLINA GOLD RUSH

The Panthers offense now ranks second in the NFL in rush yards per game. They entered Week 8 averaging better than 136 rush yards per contest. While Tampa Bay technically ranks 10th against the rush, at 96.9 yards allowed per game, the stat is skewed somewhat due to the fact its pass defense is so bad. Cincinnati exploited the Bucs rush defense to the tune of 138 yards on 27 carries. Since 2011, Cam Newton’s rookie season, the Panthers are 37-13-1 straight up and 36-15 against the spread when they finish with 136 or more rushing yards in a game.

NEXT LEVEL TREND: POINT 33

Tampa Bay’s Swiss-cheese defense has allowed 30 or more points in five of its seven games this season. Since 2000, Carolina is 41-3-1 straight up and 39-6 against the spread when scoring 33 or more points.

CHARLOTTE, NC FORECAST

Mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-60s and little chance of rain. The wind shouldn’t impact things.

Tampa Bay’s Chandler Catanzaro missed his fourth extra point of the season in the 37-34 loss at Cincinnati. However, he did improve to 10 of 12 with two successful field-goal attempts. After missing an extra point in each of the previous two games, Carolina’s Graham Gano connected on all three field goals and three extra points against the Ravens.

MY PICK

Although they squeezed a bye in there, this will be the Buccaneers’ fourth road game in six weeks.

Tampa Bay has covered back-to-back games at Carolina as a dog of 5.5 or more points in each matchup. The Bucs are 3-1 ATS with Fitzpatrick at quarterback this season.

For that spread to shoot up from -5.5 to -7 is something to digest. Fitzpatrick doesn’t have to be perfect to cover 7 points.

While I waffle on the ATS pick, I am leaning on the OVER to hit because the Buccaneers defense can’t stop anybody.