NL East Odds 2023: Braves Favored Over Mets

Steve Cohen can sign all the free agents, but he still can’t make the Mets favorites to win the NL East.

With the Major League Baseball season almost here, sportsbooks have released divisional odds and the Braves are just ahead of the Mets in odds to win the National League East. I’ll break down those lines and some value picks below:

Mets, Braves Battle In 2023 NL East Odds

Odds as of March 23, 2023

Using our sports betting calculator, the NL East odds tell us the Braves have a 52.38 percent implied probability of winning the division. 

Why Are The Braves Favored?

The Braves have quietly won the National League East for five straight seasons, making the NLCS in two of the last three years and winning the World Series in 2021. 

Despite losing key players like Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson, Atlanta has done a good job of replacing the studs and maintaining its winning ways. The Braves have a stellar pitching staff led by Max Fried, one of the best bullpens in baseball, and a lineup deep with NL MVP candidates. Even after losing Swanson this offseason, facing a batting order with Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris, Matt Olson and Sean Murphy is a daunting task. 

Mets Best NL East Bet, Even After Diaz Injury

The Braves are proven and deep, but maybe it’s finally the Mets’ year to make some noise in the East. If New York’s rotation stays healthy and lives up to the upside, it’s probably the best in baseball with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and ghost-forkballer Kodai Senga brought in this winter. The bullpen has some questions now, with the WBC injury to Edwin Diaz, but the lineup shouldn’t produce too many close games.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso can do the heavy lifting, but guys like Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil might be among baseball’s most underrated bats. Add in an NL Rookie of the Year candidate in Francisco Alvarez behind the plate and I’ll bank on the Mets’ upside in 2023. 

Can Phillies Push For East Without Harper?

The Phillies won the National League last year, so why can’t they win the East in 2023? 

In fact, this Phils squad might be even better with the additions of Trea Turner at shortstop, Taijuan Walker in the rotation, and Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto in the bullpen. However, the big issue for Philadelphia here is that stud outfielder Bryce Harper will be out until at least July following Tommy John surgery and could be limited to DH duties after that. 

Maybe these Phillies are more built for another playoff run, but they certainly have the talent to hang with the big boys in the East for the regular season.

Marlins Hoping Contact Kids Click

Last year, the Marlins dabbled in the pop, signing Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler. That didn’t work out. So this year, they’ve become a contact club, trading for Luis Arraez and signing Jean Segura and Yuli Gurriel.

It’s pretty clear the formula they’re going for, an attempt to become the National League’s Cleveland Guardians with an elite rotation and some small ball from the lineup. But those Guardians have Jose Ramirez to anchor the offense, have one of the best bullpens in baseball and play in a relatively easy division. The NL East is not the AL Central, so Miami’s new contact formula probably won’t work.

Nationals Are ... Also A Team

The only thing this year’s Nationals want to win is the draft lottery. Even at +20000 odds, Washington isn’t worth a shot for the NL East crown.

There’s certainly some upside, with young speedster CJ Abrams, upstart backstop Keibert Ruiz and a youthful rotation. But it’s just not Washington’s time yet.

This season is a year to find out what they have in DC. If anything, it’s good that the Braves, Mets and Phillies are all-in right now. By the time Washington’s young core matures and is ready to compete, at least a couple of those squads will have aged out of their windows. So, enjoy the prospects for a year or two and bide your time, Nats fans.

What Is A Futures Bet On NL East Odds?

When you decide to bet on the National League East odds for Major League Baseball, you’ll see an option to bet on which team will win the division. Since you’re betting on events that will happen in the near future, this is called a futures bet.

At your sportsbook, you would see NL East odds listed like this:

Similar to a moneyline bet, the clear favorite is indicated by the minus odds symbol (-) and the rest of the teams listed are considered underdogs.

If you were to bet $100 on the Mets at the beginning of the season and they win the NL East Division, you’d get a payout of $380 – your original $100 is returned, along with your winnings of $280. On the other hand, the same bet amount on the Marlins would give you a payout of $2,900 – you get your $100 back, plus your profit of $2,800.

Our odds calculator can help you determine how much you’d pocket depending on the odds and the amount bet.