NRFI Picks Today: Beware Blue Jays Sluggers

It’s Monday, July 7, and we’re mixing it up with one YRFI and one NRFI bet, targeting vulnerable arms, red-hot bats, and spots where we expect a quiet start. Let’s dive in.

YRFI Pick Today: Blue Jays vs White Sox (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Blue Jays vs White Sox Odds – 7:40 p.m. ET

We’re looking for some fireworks early on the South Side. Toronto sends Jose Berrios to the hill, who’s sporting a 13-5 YRFI record this year with three straight first-inning scores allowed. Berrios has the stuff, but he’s also notorious for grooving fastballs and getting into quick trouble. That's not exactly a profile that inspires trust, even with a decent ERA.

The White Sox have a respectable .728 OPS against righties, but it’s Toronto’s offense that puts this pick over the top. Over the last seven days, the Jays have a monstrous 1.069 OPS in the first inning, slugging .636 with a couple bombs. Chicago’s starter Sean Burke has been shaky out of the gate, with a 7-7 YRFI record, a bloated 6.43 ERA in the opening frame, and he’s allowed a .554 slug and .916 OPS in the first. This lines up for Toronto to capitalize quickly, maybe even with a long ball.

NRFI Pick Today: Rangers vs Angels (-140 at DraftKings)

Rangers vs Angels Odds – 9:38 p.m. ET

For our second pick, we’re banking on a scoreless start in Anaheim. Jacob DeGrom has quietly locked in lately, delivering five straight NRFIs, and he’s typically stingy with free passes, a key note given the Angels’ odd first-inning profile. Over the last two weeks, L.A. has an .836 OPS in the opening frame but with just a .239 average and a low .391 slug, meaning it’s mostly on-base noise without punch. That fits fine against DeGrom, who rarely hands out walks.

Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi just earned an All-Star nod and has been sharp all season. Texas has stumbled early, posting just a .671 OPS in the first inning over the last two weeks. With both pitchers in rhythm and the Rangers’ bats typically slow out of the gate, this looks like a solid NRFI spot even at -140.