NRFI Picks Today: Jays-M's In For Another Run

It’s Thursday, October 16, as the NLCS and ALCS roll on with two crucial matchups: Brewers vs Dodgers Game 3 in Los Angeles and Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 4 in Seattle. We’ve got a split ticket tonight — one NRFI, one YRFI — and both are backed by strong data.

NRFI Pick: Brewers vs Dodgers (-130 at FanDuel)

Brewers vs Dodgers Odds — NLCS Game 3, 6:08 p.m. ET

The Dodgers and Brewers broke our hearts on Tuesday when Milwaukee rallied for a run in the first inning, but this feels like the right spot to bounce back. The Brewers have yet to announce their Game 3 starter as of Thursday morning, while Los Angeles hands the ball to Tyler Glasnow, one of the steadiest NRFI arms in baseball. He’s 15-3 NRFI this season and clean in his lone postseason start.

Glasnow absolutely dominates this Milwaukee lineup. Active Brewers hitters are a combined 10-for-71 (.141) against him with 26 strikeouts and a .510 OPS. Nobody on the roster has managed consistent contact or power against his arsenal. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have not allowed a single earned run in the first inning all postseason, and the Game 2 blemish came solely on Milwaukee’s side. With the Dodgers’ trend intact and Glasnow’s elite splits, -130 offers real value for another scoreless first frame.

YRFI Pick: Blue Jays vs Mariners (-105 at FanDuel)

Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds — ALCS Game 4, 8:33 p.m. ET

We’re flipping the script in Seattle. Every game of this series has featured a run in the opening inning — Toronto struck first in Game 1, both sides scored in Game 2, and Seattle went deep in the first inning of Game 3. That early volatility makes the -105 YRFI line appealing.

Yes, Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners, and he’s been a consistent NRFI machine (27-5 this season, including five straight scoreless firsts). But Max Scherzer’s first-inning numbers are a red flag for Toronto. Left off the ALDS roster for inconsistency, Scherzer has a 12.96 ERA in the first inning this year, allowing opponents to hit .407 with a .753 slugging percentage. He’s just 8-9 NRFI, one of the weakest rates in the league among qualified arms. Given how both teams have struck early all series, Scherzer’s volatility makes a first-inning run at -105 an easy call.