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NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks, Stats and Trends Primer

Do you enjoy betting on the NFL playoffs? Do you enjoy betting on underdogs? Do you enjoy the convenience of unwrinkling your clothes in the dryer instead of the hassle of ironing them? OK, I’m getting off track — back to the first two questions. Underdogs are on an absolute roll in the NFL playoffs, posting a 14-1 ATS record over the last 15 playoff games. I consider that to be impressive, but will the dogs continue to bark in the divisional round?

Well, I’ll boldly predict that maybe they will, but winning straight up will be a different story when considering some other recent playoff trends. Regarding the two NFC games, underdogs of 7 or more in the NFL playoffs are a brutal 3-15 SU in the last 18 games with spreads of that size. Another perhaps more impressive record that points to the Chiefs and Rams moving on to the next round is that the road team has lost 11 consecutive Saturday divisional-round games.

All of these are just trends, of course, and the past doesn’t always predict the future. If it did, this whole sports betting thing would be easy. I’m actually not incredibly excited about any of the sides this week, but I do believe there’s some excellent teaser spots. With that said, on to the good stuff...

Best Bets for the NFL Divisional Round:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for the divisional-round games using Bovada lines from Thursday, January 10:

  • Colts +11 & Chargers +10 on a 6-point teaser
  • Rams -1 & Saints -2 on a 6-point teaser
  • UNDER 57.5 for Colts vs Chiefs
  • UNDER 48 for Patriots vs Chargers
  • OVER 29.5 for Saints’ team total

Divisional Round Stats and Trends:

Colts vs Chiefs
  • The road team is 0-11 SU in the last 11 divisional-round games on Saturday.
  • Chiefs games had a league-high average combined score of 61.63 during the regular season. Colts road games are at 44.78.
  • The Chiefs had a league-best 12-4 ATS first-half record and a second-best +6.88 first-half point differential.
  • The Chiefs ranked first in net yards per play during the regular season.
  • The Colts have allowed just 12.75 points over their last four road games. The Chiefs allowed 18 points per game at home this season — the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
  • Over their last three games, the Colts have a 73.33% red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Chiefs are at 72.73% over their last three games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Colts' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 38.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 13 games at home.
  • The Colts are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven outdoor games in January.
  • Andrew Luck in outdoor playoff games: 1-3 SU and ATS, four TDs, nine INTs
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chiefs' last six games. (Avg combined score: 65.5)
  • The Chiefs are 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 games in the playoffs.
  • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorite.
  • The Colts are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Colts are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs the Chiefs.
  • The OVER has hit in 13 of the last 16 Saturday divisional-round games.
Cowboys vs Rams
  • The Cowboys are averaging a league-low 5.8 first-half points on the road. The Rams rank second at home with an average of 20 first-half points.
  • Dallas ranked 27th in net yards per play on the road during the regular season.
  • The Rams averaged 37.1 points at home this season, which was the most in the league. Rams home games had a league-high average combined score of 65.25.
  • The OVER has hit in 13 of the last 16 Saturday divisional-round games.
  • The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 7 or more. They won five of those games outright.
  • Jared Goff’s QB rating at home was 36 points higher than on the road. Dak Prescott’s QB rating on the road was 23.9 points lower than at home.
  • The Cowboys averaged 7.5 fewer points on the road this season. The Rams averaged 8.9 more points at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Cowboys' last 12 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • Dallas allowed 48.1 more rushing yards per game on the road this season.
  • The Rams are first in passing yards per game at home with 332.8.
  • The Rams are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Cowboys are 10-3 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games at night.
  • The Rams are 6-14 SU and 4-14-2 ATS in their last 20 games at night.
  • The Rams are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games as favorite.
  • The Cowboys are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff road games. Their last playoff road win came in San Francisco in 1993. Since 1981, they’re 2-13 SU in road playoff games.
  • The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • The road team is 0-11 SU in the last 11 divisional-round games on Saturday.
  • Underdogs of 7 or more in the NFL playoffs are just 3-15 SU over their last 18.
Chargers vs Patriots              
  • In head-to-head matchups, Tom Brady has gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS vs Philip Rivers.
  • Since 2000, the Patriots are 11-1 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in home divisional-round games. Eight of those 12 games went OVER.
  • Over their last seven home games, the Patriots are averaging 33.71 points per game. Over their last three home games, they’ve allowed just 8.33 points. They allowed the second-fewest points per game at home in the regular season with 16.6.
  • The Patriots are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 15.87)
  • The Chargers are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 10.0)
  • The Chargers are 5-0 SU in their last five games on the East Coast.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 40.89)
  • Over their last three games, the Chargers are holding opponents to an NFL-best 14.29% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • Tom Brady’s last five playoff games: 13 TDs and 1 INT
  • The Chargers are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games vs the Patriots.
  • The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs.
  • The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the playoffs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers' last six games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 40.5)
Eagles vs Saints
  • The Saints are averaging 35.55 points over their last six home games.
  • The Saints are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at home.
  • Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 5-0 SU in home playoff games.
  • Drew Brees at home this season: 21 TDs, 1 INT, 133.3 QB Rating.
  • The Eagles are holding opponents to an NFL-low 42.37% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 42.14)
  • Over their last three games, the Eagles are allowing a league-low 49.3 rushing yards per game.
  • The Eagles are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Saints.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Eagles' last four games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 50.5)
  • The Saints are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the playoffs on the road.
  • The Eagles are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
  • The Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs as a favorite.
  • Underdogs of 7 or more in the NFL playoffs are just 3-15 SU over their last 18.

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