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2019 NFL Offense Season Props: Identifying Value With 7 Weeks To Go

NFL Offense Stat Leaders 2019 Season Christian McCaffrey

Passing, rushing and receiving yards can be a key indicator of high-end performance in the NFL. After 10 weeks and with the stretch run of the 2019 regular season in front of us, online sportsbooks have tabbed their front-runners to finish as the leaders of each offensive statistic.

For passing yards, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston are +350 co-favorites to end the 2019 season with the most yards through the air.

For rushing yards, Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (+220) is a slight favorite over Minnesota Vikings back Dalvin Cook (+275) to keep up his torrid pace of yards on the ground.

And finally, for receiving yards, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (-115) is an odds-on favorite to end the year with the most yards through the air with Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (+350) behind him on the oddsboard.

Let’s break down each betting prop and see if bettors should ride with the favorite or take a swing on another skill player to take the leap to the top.

Passing Yards

Quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Jamies Winston wouldn’t have been my early choices to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2019 and oddsmakers seemed to agree. Dak wasn’t even on the preseason list for most passing yards at Bovada while Winston was +1000, the sixth-best odds.

Going into Week 11, Prescott is second in the NFL with 2,777 passing yards while Winston is third with 2,765. Chargers QB Philip Rivers leads all passers with 2,816 yards. All due respect to Dak, Jameis and Philip, but the only option bettors should be considering is Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes is currently +550, which feels like a steal considering he could throw for 300 yards in his sleep. He threw for 5,000 passing yards last season while winning regular-season MVP. He’s got six games remaining in 2019 and while some of those teams are very tough vs the pass (Patriots, Bears, Broncos), Mahomes is matchup-proof. He’s currently 190 passing yards back from Rivers and he’s more than capable of surpassing him.

Most Passing Yards in 2019 NFL Season
PlayerOdds
Dak Prescott+350
Jameis Winston+350
Jared Goff+500
Patrick Mahomes+550
Philip Rivers+800
Matt Ryan+1000
Aaron Rodgers+1000
Russell Wilson+1200
Matthew Stafford+1400
Tom Brady+1600
Deshaun Watson+2500
Kyler Murray+3300
Kirk Cousins+6600
Carson Wentz+8000
Derek Carr+8000
Lamar Jackson+10000
Baker Mayfield+10000
Jimmy Garoppolo+10000

Odds as of November 15 at Bovada

Rushing Yards

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has been playing like a cheat code in Madden through 11 weeks and is well on pace to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2019. But does that make him a good bet to finish with the most rushing yards? I’m not sold.

Running back is such a volatile position when it comes to injuries that it’s hard to place legitimate money on it. In most games, McCaffrey is the entire Panthers offense and that much of a workload could come to a screeching halt at any time from one hit in the brutal game of football. This is also why it’s hard to bank on Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, who has his own injury issues in his brief career.

McCaffrey would likely be the best pick with a gun to your head but in trying to identify value, the running back to consider is the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs (+1000). Coming out of Alabama, Jacobs has lived up to the hype of being an every-down back for Jon Gruden’s offense.

He has 811 yards in nine games, which is about 180 yards short from the top of the leaderboard. Oakland has some very soft matchups in the coming weeks vs the Bengals, Jets and Chiefs, which could make Jacobs’ yardage skyrocket, so he’d be worth a punt if bettors are looking for a lottery ticket.

Most Rushing Yards in 2019 NFL Season
PlayerOdds
Christian McCaffrey+220
Dalvin Cook+275
Leonard Fournette+900
Josh Jacobs+1000
Ezekiel Elliott+1200
Chris Carson+1200
Marlon Mack+2000
Derrick Henry+1600
Mark Ingram+4000
Matt Breida+10000
Aaron Jones+12500
Phillip Lindsay+12500
Alvin Kamara+12500
Jordan Howard+20000

Odds as of November 15 at Bovada

Receiving Yards

The current NFL leader in targets, catches and receiving yards, Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas continues to live up to his Twitter handle “CantGuardMike.” The fourth-year wideout is nearly impossible to stop in an NFL game with his route-running and workload so it makes it very hard to endorse another betting option.

It was expected that his targets and numbers would drop when QB Drew Brees missed six games with a thumb injury but he was backup QB Teddy Bridgewater’s safety blanket in that stretch. Barring injury, he will again finish at the top of the receiving leaderboard and bettors who got in on him preseason at +950 are licking their chops looking at the Saints’ remaining schedule.

Most Receiving Yards in 2019 NFL Season
PlayerOdds
Michael Thomas-115
Mike Evans+350
Amari Cooper+800
Chris Godwin+1000
Cooper Kupp+1200
Julio Jones+1800
Tyler Lockett+2500
Stefon Diggs+4000
Travis Kelce+4000
Kenny Golladay+5000
DeAndre Hopkins+6600
DJ Chark+6600
Keenan Allen+6600
Odell Beckham Jr. +8000
D.K. Metcalf+8000
Julian Edelman+8000

Odds as of November 15 at Bovada


Prop Betting: Offensive Player Awards

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2019.

When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Passing Touchdowns

Patrick Mahomes +450

Aaron Rodgers +450

Tom Brady +500

Drew Brees +550

Dak Prescott +800

Russell Wilson +1000

When you make a moneyline bet you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case because this is a prop bet, you would consider Mahomes the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are dogs.

Let’s say you think Drew Brees is going to record the most passing TDs and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $650 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $550. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

Why Does the Betting Line Move so Much?

Before the regular season, oddsmakers will look at past performance to determine what each player’s odds should be. Someone like Ezekiel Elliott could be at +800 in August for the most receiving touchdowns for 2019. By the time the Cowboys put their first bye in the books, Zeke’s odds could dip due to lack of production. The betting line moves as players get hurt, underdogs out-perform faves, and trades happen. If you see odds you like, take them as early as possible otherwise they could move so much, they’re practically non-existent.