2020 NFL Offense Season Props: Who’s Going to Lead the League on Offense?

Passing, rushing and receiving yards can be a key indicator of high-end performance in the NFL. With the NFL draft behind us, the best football betting sites have tabbed their front-runners to finish as the leaders of each offensive category in 2020.

It’s a who’s who of stars for each of these three betting props at Bovada with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes favored to lead the NFL in passing yards, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas favored to finish with the most receiving yards and Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry favored to again amass the most rushing yards.

For passing, Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is the +475 favorite over Saints QB Drew Brees, who is listed at +700. Last year’s leader, former Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, is +4000 and will now be backing up Brees in New Orleans.

Michael Thomas broke the NFL record for catches in a season at 149 and after he won the AP Offensive Player of the Year, the online shop has him at +550 to lead the league again. Following Thomas is Falcons WR Julio Jones, who won this prop in 2015 and 2018 and is +800.

As for rushing, it would be hard for a sportsbook to put anyone besides Derrick Henry at the top of the list after he finished 2019 with over 1,500 yards rushing and carried the Titans all the way to the AFC championship game.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each betting prop with the notables that bettors should know about:

Passing Yards

After finishing at the top of the NFL in passing yards in 2018 and winning his first League MVP, Patrick Mahomes is ready to get back to his quarterback throne. By his standards, he regressed a bit during the 2019 regular season but that was mainly due to a knee injury that saw him miss three games. Once he returned to the field, he was lights out and led his team to a Super Bowl victory, so it makes sense for him to be the favorite at +475.

Tom Brady, with his new squad in Tampa Bay, could be a viable option having Pro Bowl receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal and he’s listed at +750, just ahead of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Falcons QB Matt Ryan on the oddsboard. Ryan (+800) may have the most upside as his WR duo of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley is arguably the best in the NFL and even on a struggling Falcons squad, he finished fifth in the NFL in passing yards in 2019.

Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson has +1600 odds to lead the league in this category but even at his best, he’s not as much a threat to pass as some of the other options on the board. Jackson finished 2019 with 3,127 yards in the air, which ranked 22nd in the NFL. The Ravens are expected to finish with double-digit wins again in 2020, which likely means they’ll have big leads in games and will be less likely to pass.

Here are the full betting odds for which quarterback will lead the NFL in passing yards in 2020:

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

Rushing Yards

The beast in Tennessee, Derrick Henry, may be the most imposing running back in the NFL with his bruising style and underrated quickness. Henry literally ran away with this betting prop in 2019 with 1,540 yards and 303 attempts from scrimmage. He deserves to be the +550 favorite but since running back is such a volatile position, bettors may want to look elsewhere for value.

The Browns’ Nick Chubb and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott may make the most sense to take the rushing title in 2020 just because of how their offenses operate. Chubb (+900) has been a monster in Cleveland since his arrival and likely would’ve led the league in rushing yards in 2019 if the Browns hadn’t been so inept on offense. Elliott, on the other hand, has twice led the NFL in this category (2016 and 2018) and unless he gets hurt he will certainly top 300 carries again in 2020.

The sleeper for this betting prop is Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson at +3300. It feels like asking a lot for a QB to lead the NFL in rushing yards but Jackson isn’t your average quarterback and the Ravens showed in 2019 that they will adapt their offense to his skill set, not the other way around. The NFL MVP finished last season fifth in rushing yards at 1,206 and he could’ve had more if the Ravens weren’t destroying teams so easily with the best win margin in the league (+15.6).

Here are the full betting odds for which player will lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2020:

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

Receiving Yards

After finishing 2019 with the most catches in a season and beating the runner-up by nearly 400 yards receiving, Saints WR Michael Thomas may be in a class of his own. The fifth-year wideout has amassed 5,512 yards in the air in four seasons and as the featured receiver in the New Orleans offense, it makes sense that he’s the preseason favorite to repeat this feat.

Sticking with the NFC South division, Tampa Bay’s wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each has +1300 odds; Godwin finished third in the category in 2019 with 1,399 yards. With Tom Brady now in the Sunshine State, they could both easily notch 1,000-yard seasons again.

Two players who were on the move in the offseason, DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals and Stefon Diggs to the Bills, both have the capability of being at the top of the list by the conclusion of the 2020 season.

Hopkins (+1000) and Diggs (+3000) will each be the top option with their new teams but Hopkins may have the edge based on the quarterback who’s throwing the ball. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is fresh off an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign while Bills QB Josh Allen finished 23rd in passing yards in a mostly run-first offense.

Here are the full betting odds for which player will lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2020:

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

Prop Betting: Offensive Player Awards

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2020.

When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:

NFL Offensive Player Passing Yards:

Drew Brees +500

Patrick Mahomes +600

Aaron Rodgers +800

Tom Brady +800

When you make a moneyline bet you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Brees the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are dogs.

Let’s say you think Drew Brees is going to record the most passing yards in 2020 and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $600 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $500. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

Why Does the Betting Line Move so Much?

Before the regular season, oddsmakers will look at past performance to determine what each player’s odds should be. Someone like Ezekiel Elliott could be at +1000 in August for the most rushing yards for 2020. By the time the Cowboys put their first bye in the books, Zeke’s odds could dip due to lack of production. The betting line moves as players get hurt, underdogs outperform faves, and trades happen. If you see odds you like, take them as early as possible, otherwise they could move so much that they’re practically non-existent.