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NFL Offense Props: Which Players Will Lead the League in 2020?

NFL Stat Leaders November 12, 2020

Passing, rushing and receiving yards can be key indicators of high-end performance in the NFL. With nine weeks of the 2020 NFL season in the books, the best football betting sites have tabbed their front-runners to finish as the leaders of those offensive categories in 2020.

It’s a who’s who of stars for each of these betting props at Bovada with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf favored to lead the NFL in passing yards and receiving yards. For rushing yards, it’s a battle of battering rams with Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook slightly favored over Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each betting prop with recent developments from the first nine weeks of the season:

Passing Yards

Through nine weeks of the 2020 NFL season, a lot of quarterbacks are bombing passes downfield. The top 10 quarterbacks in passing yardage are separated by only 600 yards with five QBs projected to pass for more than 5,000 yards. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan leads all passers with 2,746 in nine games but has dropped to +350 odds to finish the season as the leader, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson now the fave at +260.

Wilson has a wealth of talent at wide receiver and has a game in hand on most of the passers in the top 10, having played eight games while most have played nine. Given how he’s been throwing and considering the current injuries to Seahawks running backs, he may be counted on to air it out even more in the coming weeks.

Then you’ve got Patrick Mahomes, who is just casually sitting in second in passing yards at 2,687 and has all the tools to reel off games with 500 passing yards. He was +700 going into Week 8 and has since dropped to +400, so there’s still time to jump on the Mahomes train.

Who Will Lead the NFL In Passing Yards?

Most Passing Yards in 2020 NFL Season
Russell Wilson+260
Matt Ryan+350
Patrick Mahomes+400
Deshaun Watson+700
Aaron Rodgers+1000
Josh Allen+1000
Joe Burrow+1200
Drew Brees+2500
Teddy Bridgewater+2500
Tom Brady+2500
Kyler Murray+2800
Matthew Stafford+3300
Gardner Minshew+4000
Jared Goff+4000
Derek Carr+5000

Odds as of November 12 at Bovada

Rushing Yards

Titans running back Derrick Henry, who was the preseason favorite for this prop, was sitting at +500 after Week 1 when he didn’t crack 100 yards. Fast-forward to Week 10 and now Henry has dropped to -110 but is slightly edged by Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (-120). The Minnesota RB has been dominant over the last five games, averaging over 149 yards on the ground per game and rushing for eight touchdowns.

Henry can’t be counted out either and still might be the most imposing running back in the NFL with his bruising style and underrated quickness. He literally ran away with this betting prop in 2019 with 1,540 yards and 303 attempts from scrimmage.

At this point, it’s a two-man race and unless one of them gets hurt, we’re going to see an epic race to the finish.

Who Will Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?

Most Rushing Yards in 2020 NFL Season
Dalvin Cook-120
Derrick Henry-110
Josh Jacobs+1000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire+3300
Kareem Hunt+3300
Todd Gurley+4000
James Conner+5000
Ronald Jones+6600
Ezekiel Elliott+8000
Alvin Kamara+10000

Odds as of November 12 at Bovada

Receiving Yards

It’s the DK Metcalf show for receiving yards through nine weeks as the second-year WR has 788 receiving yards in eight games, trailing Stefon Diggs by only 25 yards with a game in hand. Given the way the Seahawks passing attack is pacing the offense, Metcalf doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon, so he still offers decent value at +225 while Diggs is listed at +500.

The one wide receiver who hasn’t been discussed much to steal this prop away is Washington’s Terry McLaurin at +1500. The Ohio State product has only played eight games and trails Diggs by 121 yards, hardly an insurmountable deficit even with the quarterback situation in Washington so murky. Washington tends to trail a lot in games, which only lends itself to garbage time and the need to pass the ball. He could be a sneaky flyer with eight games to go.

Who Will Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards?

Most Receiving Yards in 2020 NFL Season
DK Metcalf+225
DeAndre Hopkins+260
Stefon Diggs+500
Davante Adams+800
Robby Anderson+1100
Terry McLaurin+1500
Travis Kelce+2000
Allen Robinson+2500
Keenan Allen+2500
Calvin Ridley+3300
Tyler Lockett+3500
Julio Jones+4000
Justin Jefferson+5000
Amari Cooper+8000
DJ Moore+8000

Odds as of November 12 at Bovada

Prop Betting: Offensive Player Awards

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2020.

When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:

NFL Offensive Player Passing Yards:

Drew Brees +500

Patrick Mahomes +600

Aaron Rodgers +800

Tom Brady +800

When you make a moneyline bet you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Drew Brees the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are dogs.

Let’s say you think Brees is going to record the most passing yards in 2020 and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $600 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $500. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

Why Does the Betting Line Move so Much?

Before the regular season, oddsmakers will look at past performance to determine what each player’s odds should be. Someone like Ezekiel Elliott could be at +1000 in August for the most rushing yards for 2020. By the time the Cowboys put their first bye in the books, Zeke’s odds could dip due to lack of production. The betting line moves as players get hurt, underdogs outperform faves, and trades happen. If you see odds you like, take them as early as possible, otherwise they could move so much that they’re practically non-existent.