NFL rookies drafted in the first couple of rounds are expected to make an immediate impact. The players drafted in the early first round are often expected to be stars.
That is exactly what happened with last season’s NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Dallas linebacker Micah Parsons, who was not only the best defensive rookie but one of the better defenders in the entire league and was in legitimate consideration for Defensive Player of the Year.
In addition to the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds breakdown, see what Paulo Antunes is looking at for the upcoming rookie class.
This season, the top of the NFL draft was dominated by defensive players, with each of the first five picks coming on that side of the ball.
It should not be surprising that those five players are represented heavily at the best NFL betting sites in Defensive Rookie of the Year odds, with Detroit edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, the second overall pick, the favorite at +550.
In the meantime, check out the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds with analysis below on the best bets.
Odds To Win 2022 NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Year
|Jermaine Johnson II||+900|
|Derek Stingley Jr.||+1000|
|Andrew Booth Jr.||+2200|
Odds as of August 12 at Bodog
NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Year Betting Strategy
Twenty-nine of the last 32 winners of this award were drafted in the first round. So it’s pretty likely that our winner will be one of the 16 defensive players drafted in the first this year.
The voting has also tended to skew toward a couple of positions as six of the last seven winners of the award were either edge rushers or cornerbacks. High sack numbers and dominant/flashy play from a corner seems to catch voters’ attention while the league has also shifted away from off-ball linebackers being as important as they once were.
Off-ball linebackers dominated the award in the mid-2000s, but only Luke Kuechly (’12) and Darius Leonard (’19) have won the award as standup, inside linebackers since 2010.
That recent history of cornerbacks and edge rushers dominating this award is reflected by the premiums teams place on those positions, and the trend is reflected perfectly by the top of this year’s draft.
The top three is made up of three edge rushers/defensive ends (Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux).
We like Hutchinson the best of the three on an improving Lions team. If he can put together a solid sack number, he’ll be tough to beat in NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds – the only issue is that there are a bunch of players with more attractive odds.
Standout cornerbacks do well in Defensive Rookie of the Year awards and there are several candidates to be this year’s Marshon Lattimore (’17 winner) or Marcus Peters (’15 winner).
Gardner (+1000) and Stingley (+1000) are high-level cornerback prospects who will be expected to start and contribute from Day 1. They both have the talent and ability to win this award, but we are a bit scared off by the quality of the defenses they will play in.
Stingley in particular will be a part of a rebuilding Houston team that should again be one of the worst in the NFL. It’s hard to picture the Defensive Rookie of the Year winner coming from a defense that gets torched on a weekly basis.
Other Best Bets
George Karlaftis (+1600)
Karlaftis opened at +1800 and was immediately bet down to +1600 as some bettors no doubt noted the opportunity this player has in front of him.
With Melvin Ingram now departed from Kansas City, the Chiefs had an open spot opposite Frank Clark to rush the passer and Karlaftis should walk into a ton of sack opportunities right away. With Clark and Chris Jones occupying much of the attention on the Chiefs defensive front, Karlaftis should get plenty of one-on-one matchups.
We like his odds a lot at +1600.
Kaiir Elam (+2000)
With star corner Tre’Davious White returning from an injury and Levi Wallace departing via free agency, the Bills had a glaring need at corner.
In steps Elam, a tall corner who ran a time of 4.39 in the 40 (90th percentile) and started in the SEC at Florida against top competition.
On one of the better defenses in the league with other star defensive backs, Elam will likely be targeted early and often, giving him plenty of opportunity to make splash plays and create turnovers. If he does that, his name should be near the top of the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds list at the end of the year.
Nik Bonitto (+5000)
An undersized edge prospect who specializes in bending the edge and getting to the quarterback, Bonitto has the look of a player who could win this award with sack totals alone.
He is a long shot as a late second-round pick, and there are questions about his three-down ability, but Bonitto profiles as a Harold Landry-type edge rusher who could surprise early in his career.
In one of the better defenses in the league in Denver, Bonitto should get plenty of good matchups on a line that already includes Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb.
Check out our NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds to find out which rookie is favored to make the biggest impact on the other side of the ball.
How To Read Defensive Rookie Of The Year Odds
At any football sportsbook, you’ll see odds for a prop bet listed like this:
Travon Walker +200
Sauce Gardner +500
Logan Hall +1600
If you were to bet $100 on Walker at +200, you’d get a payout of $300 – your original money is returned along with your winnings of $200. Conversely, that same $100 on Hall would get you a higher payout of $1,700 – you get your $100 back plus your prize of $1,600. To see how much you’d win based on the odds and bet amount, check out our Odds Calculator.
What Is A Prop Bet On NFL Rookies?
A prop is a bet on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain team or individual milestones that don’t necessarily correlate to the outcome of a specific game. In this case, you’re betting on a player’s chances of winning a defensive award.
When the betting lines are created, they are subject to change as the season progresses and more games are played. A player with decent odds in September could see himself as a contender in November as he proves himself on the field. We suggest taking odds you like as soon as you see them. The longer you wait, the less value you’ll get on your bet.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year FAQ
Can I bet on the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Yes, you can bet on the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. We have other NFL futures available too like the Offensive Rookie of the Year and the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. You can bet on these fun futures as soon as you sign up at an online sportsbook.
Who is the favorite to win the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is the current betting favorite at +400 odds to win the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. The former Michigan Wolverine was the second overall pick and second defensive player taken in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Who won the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2021?
It was Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons. Parsons was the 12th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Penn State University. He had 13 sacks, 30 QB hits, 20 tackles for a loss and three forced fumbles in his rookie season. He was voted to the Pro Bowl and ran away with the award after being a +450 favorite to start the season.
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