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NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds: Can Henry Repeat?

Last year's winner Derrick Henry is the second favorite in NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds.

The NFL MVP award almost always goes to a quarterback. Only one non-QB has won the MVP since 2006 (running back Adrian Peterson in 2012) and even backs, receivers and defensive players who have record-breaking seasons are routinely passed over for that year’s top QB.

But when it comes to NFL Offensive Player of the Year, the top QB of the season and the MVP is not always the slam-dunk winner.

In fact, a non-QB has won Offensive Player of the Year in three of the last four seasons and five of the last 10. The MVP winner and Offensive Player of the Year winner were the same player in five of the last 10 seasons.

So, when we look at NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds for this season, the top choices on the board are a good mix of top quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends.

Due to a strong Week 1 performance, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+500) now leads the way over last year’s winner, Titans running back Derrick Henry (+800). At online sportsbook Bovada, the top pair are followed by Christian McCaffrey (+1000), Tom Brady (+1400), Josh Allen (+1500) and Aaron Rodgers (+1600) to round out the top selections.

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NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds

Who will win 2021-22 Offensive Player of the year?
Patrick Mahomes+500
Derrick Henry+800
Christian McCaffrey+1000
Tom Brady+1400
Josh Allen+1500
Aaron Rodgers+1600
Dalvin Cook+1600
Kyler Murray+1600
Alvin Kamara+1800
Dak Prescott+1800
Davante Adams+1800
Matthew Stafford+1800
Nick Chubb+1800
George Kittle+2000
Lamar Jackson+2000
Saquon Barkley+2000
Travic Kelce+2000
Tyreek Hill+2000
Russell Wilson+2200
Stefon Diggs+2200
Justin Herbert+2800
Calvin Ridley+3000
DeAndre Hopkins+3000
Ezekiel Elliott+3000
Jonathan Taylor+3000

Odds as of September 13 at Bovada

New to betting on football? Check out our How to bet on the NFL page for tips and strategy. Or check out our NFL page for articles on Super Bowl odds, MVP odds and much more.

NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds: Best Bets

Can Derrick Henry Repeat?

Henry (+800) became just the eighth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards last season and was the obvious choice for Offensive Player of the Year. He finished with 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Built like a Mack truck, Henry appears to be one of the most durable players at his position in the league. Usually we would be cautious about betting that a player who had more than 700 touches over a two-year span could hold up physically, but there’s no reason to doubt Henry at this point.

The bigger concern for Henry reaching lofty numbers again is the state of the team around him. The Titans offense is likely to experience an uptick in passing with the addition of All-Pro Julio Jones and a poor defense leading to some negative game scripts. That showed in Week 1, with the Titans getting blown out by the Cardinals and Henry rushing for just 58 yards.

Henry doesn’t catch a lot of passes, so if the Titans find themselves trailing more often this year, his numbers could take a hit.

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Christian McCaffrey (+1000)

McCaffrey appeared in just three games for the Panthers in an injury-riddled 2020 season. Now healthy, he has to be one of the favorites for the award after posting 2,392 scrimmage yards (1,387 rushing, 1,005 receiving) in 2019 along with 19 total touchdowns.

McCaffrey had more than 100 receptions in each of his last two full seasons and could have easily won this award in 2019.

He is solid value at +1000 and should maybe be the overall favorite. His odds could skyrocket with a dream early-season schedule with matchups against the Texans, Cowboys and Eagles following his strong Week 1 showing against the Jets.

Lamar Jackson (+2000)

Jackson won the MVP in 2019 but did not take home the Offensive Player of the Year award as he was overshadowed by Michael Thomas’ NFL-record 149 receptions.

But after a bit of a down year in terms of touchdown numbers last season, Jackson is primed for a bounce-back to the top of the list of Offensive Player of the Year candidates.

Jackson has rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last two years and should be able to do so again. That incredible rushing production, combined with a return to form in passing statistics, would put Jackson squarely in the conversation for this award. It won’t hurt that the Ravens should be one of the top teams in the league this season.

Antonio Gibson/Austin Ekeler (+3500)

At +3500, both of these players present great value in NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds. Gibson and Ekeler both profile as Christian McCaffrey-type players who can put up huge numbers on the ground and through the air.

Gibson was primarily a receiver in college, handling only 33(!) rush attempts in his entire college career while catching more than 40 passes. Last year as a rookie in Washington, he had 170 rush attempts for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns while catching 36 balls.

We know he is a good runner. We know he is a good receiver. If the Washington Football Team can hand him the reins in a McCaffrey-type role, the sky is the limit for the uber-talented Gibson. Washington’s offense should also be much improved this season and the team’s top-notch defense should allow for positive game scripts.

Ekeler, meanwhile, is a proven receiving back in this league. He caught 54 passes in 10 games last season and 94 in 16 games the year prior.

With superstar-in-the-making Justin Herbert under center for the Chargers, Ekeler could be in line for a ton of touchdowns and positive game scripts. If he can get that McCaffrey-like workload and handle most of the rush and pass game work from the backfield, his ceiling is very high.

When it comes to betting on the NFL, odds are available before teams take their first regular-season snaps. You can even bet on a potential Super Bowl winner in August. Certain squads will always be contenders, especially if they won the previous year. When bookmakers set the lines, they look at offseason roster moves, coaching changes and past on-field performance. To bet on the odds for the Super Bowl, you’d make a futures bet.

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What Is An NFL Futures Bet?

This is a bet in which you would look at the odds for the Super Bowl, weeks or sometimes months in advance of the big game, and decide which team you think will win. Let’s say you want to make a futures bet today. At your sportsbook of choice, the odds might look something like this:

Kansas City Chiefs +300
New Orleans Saints +550
Green Bay Packers +900
Buffalo Bills +1000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1100

If this were a moneyline bet, you’d be able to see which team is the clear favorite because it would have a minus sign beside its odds (-). For Super Bowl futures, the team with the lowest odds is favored to win the NFL championship, and the rest are underdogs.

Let’s say you feel strongly about the Saints and believe they’re going to win it all. If you were to bet $100 on them and they did triumph, you’d get a payout of $650 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $550. Our odds calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

The odds change throughout the season as key players get injured, trades happen and coaches get fired. Line movements for NFL futures happen weekly, so if you see odds you like, it’s best to bet on them ASAP. The Packers may be +900 to win the Super Bowl in October but after a surge in November their odds could jump to +400 and you’ll make less money than you would if you’d bet them at +900.