A clash of titans in Week 4, despite sharing 1-2 SU and ATS records, sees the Baltimore Ravens travelling to GEHA Field to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in what should be an offensive shootout with the total set at 48 points.
For the second time this season, and just fifth time since 2020, the Chiefs are getting points at home with FanDuel setting the line at KC +2.5. The Chiefs were +1 in Week 2 vs the Eagles, losing 20-17. You have to go back to October 7, 2012, to find the last time Baltimore was favored in Kansas City – the Ravens won 9-6 but failed to cover the six points.
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Ravens vs Chiefs Odds Week 4
Matchup page: Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Sept. 28, 4:25 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | -2.5 (-118) | -146 | O48.5 (-115) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2.5 (-104) | +124 | U48.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Sept. 25 at FanDuel
Ravens vs Chiefs Picks Week 4
Kansas City finally got in the win column in Week 3, knocking off the lowly 0-3 Giants 22-9 in what was the Chiefs highest offensive output of the season – yikes. But a win’s a win and that’s more than Baltimore can say after its 38-30 defeat at the hands of Detroit in the Monday nighter. The Raven’s defense is more leaky than my nose battling a 15th bout of COVID, averaging 32 points against per game, the second-most in the NFL.
There were signs of life for Kansas City’s offense in its win against the G-men, notably in the run game with Isiah Pacheco hitting a season-high 45 yards (not great) and Kareem Hunt, too, with a season-high 34 yards (also not great). There’s room for those season-high’s to be smashed against Baltimore’s swiss-cheese, third-worst ranked run defense that has surrendered 149 rush yards per game, 4.3 yards fewer than New York – Pacheco’s rushing yards prop total is set at 34.5 at FanDuel.
The Chiefs should get another offensive boost through the air with Xavier Worthy set to make his season debut, yes I’m not counting his one snap friendly fire encounter with Travis Kelce in Brazil. Worthy had two catches for 47 yards and a TD in his lone career game vs Baltimore which came in Week 1 last year.
It’s easy to rip into the Ravens to start the year, but in fairness, colliding with Super Bowl contenders at Buffalo, home to the Lions and now at the Chiefs is not for the faint of heart. While the defense has been woeful, the offense has been remarkable, racking up 37 points per game, the most in the NFL with Detroit second at 34.3 ppg.
Lamar Jackson is on a revenge tour after being snubbed for the MVP award last year sitting second in the NFL in average yards per completion (9.6), fourth in completion percentage (72), first in passing TD’s (9), no interceptions and first in passer rating (141.8 next closest is 129.8) – I rest my case. Even with Derrick Henry having a slower start to the season, rushing for 23 and 50 yards respectively over the last two games and his rush total is set at 85.5 yards this week, this team is firing on all cylinders. Look for the Henry fumble prop at your favorite sportsbook as he’s had one in every game this season after having three all of last year.
I do believe Kansas City’s offense is going to start getting right soon and why not this week with Worthy returning this week and now facing a struggling Baltimore defense. The OVER looks like the play to make with these teams doing so in seven of their last 10 meetings and have had an average combined score of 56.8 in the five meetings between Mahomes and Jackson dating back to 2018. Cautionary tale, though, last year’s Week 1 meeting was the lowest scoring affair between these two at 47 points.
Pick: OVER 48 points (-110)
Pick made Sept. 25
Ravens vs Chiefs Prop Pick – Week 4
Isiah Pacheco O34.5 (-114) at FanDuel
As I mentioned above, Pacheco is coming off the best game of the season, racking up, if I can call it that, 45 yards on 10 attempts against the Giants. While the Ravens are “better” it’s only marginal by a couple of average yards. Further, Pacheco ran for 35 or more yards in his first four games last season, including 45 against Baltimore in Week 1:
Ravens vs Chiefs Betting Trends
- The Total has gone OVER in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two (avg. combined score 49).
- Per Outlier, Lamar Jackson has thrown for OVER 1.5 TD’s in 14 of his last 16 games (O1.5 passing TD’s -132 at FanDuel)
- The Raven’s haven’t had 3 September losses since 2015, likewise for the Chiefs
