A huge AFC clash headlines Week 14 of the NFL season, as the Houston Texans meet the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. This game has far-reaching playoff implications, with the Texans at 7-5 and in the thick of the AFC South race and the Chiefs sitting on the outside of the playoffs at 6-6. This is a classic battle of outstanding offense versus top-tier defense in primetime.
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Texans vs Chiefs Odds
Matchup Page: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs, December 7th, 8:20 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +3.5 (-110) | +164 | Over 41.5 (-112) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.5 (-110) | -198 | Under 41.5 (-108) |
Odds as of December 7th at [DraftKings]
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Texans vs Chiefs Picks - Week 14
Pick: Chiefs ML (-180)
Houston's dominant pass-rush has the Texans on a four-game winning streak that has them right back in the AFC South race. DeMeco Ryans' squad is 3-1 ATS in that span, in which the Texans have won back-to-back games outright as underdogs.
Ryan's defense is straight up nasty. The Texans stop-unit leads the NFL in EPA per allowed, and sit second in opponent dropback success rate. Houston's defense allows a league-best 265 yards per game, and their 34 sacks are tied for fifth. The embarrassment of riches the Texans have up front powers the team to victory, with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter generating consistent pressure. H-Town sits sixth in sack percentage and rank in the top-10 in pressure rate. The concern of course is on the offensive side of the football, where the Texans are 21st in EPA per play. Houston's offense is functional, but certainly not explosive (20th in explosive play rate). That could be their downfall on Sunday Night Football.
The surface level results don't look good for Kansas City, but the numbers under the hood tell a different tale. Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to third in offensive EPA per play, with an elite 48% success rate. Yet, KC has dropped three of their last four games, and needed overtime to defeat the Colts in their last home game. Untimely turnovers, and undisciplined play (10th in penalties this season) have doomed the one-time Super Bowl favorites. Those missteps have led the Chiefs to a 1-6 record in one-score games this season, after the team went a perfect 12-0 in 2024. While Mahomes is 29-12 SU in primetime in his career, he's just 3-2 so far this year.
Ultimately, this is a must-win spot for a desperate Chiefs team with their backs against the wall. While the Texans menacing pass-rush will cause problems, Kansas City will be better prepared to deal with the pressure than Buffalo and Indianapolis the past few weeks. After all, Mahomes saw a 35% pressure rate against Dallas on Thanksgiving and threw for 261 yards and four scores. Having said that, I don't think there's anyway KC should be favored by a more than a field goal in this one. The Chiefs offense is elite, but so is the Texans defense and both Houston's offense, and Kansas City's defense are league-average units. Sportsbooks have added an "Arrowhead Tax" (where the Chiefs are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games) to this line, so be wary of the hook. However, the Chiefs are a near lock as a home favorite, going 26-4 SU in their last 30 games dating back to the 2021 season. I think Houston's defense keeps Mahomes in a phone booth, and forces Andy Reid to settle for three often enough to drag this game into a grind-it-out Kansas City victory.
Pick made as of Dec. 1st
Texans vs Chiefs Props - Week 14
Xavier Worthy O0.5 First-Quarter Receptions (-169)
Expect to see Xavier Worthy involved early and often against the Texans on Sunday. Worthy has at least one first-quarter reception in 10 straight home games, while averaging 1.5 receptions in the first stanza. Andy Reid loves to dial up the wide receiver screens to Worthy, and the Chiefs will want to get those rolling early to throw off the Texans pass-rush.
Texans vs Chiefs Betting Trends - Week 14
- Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 road games
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
- The Houston Texans are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games vs. top 10 scoring defenses
