Next Manager Fired Odds: Nationals’ Martinez On Hot Seat

Baseball is fun to watch, but it’s a lot less fun for managers of underachieving MLB clubs.

Every season, a few skippers feel the heat on their seat and eventually lose their jobs. Per the books, Nationals manager Dave Martinez enters the 2023 season as the skipper with the hottest seat. Here are the complete 2023 next manager fired odds and some takeaways from the lines:

Washington’s Martinez Leads Next Manager Fired Odds

Odds as of March 31, 2023

Why Martinez Enters 2023 On Hot Seat

Expectations for the Nats aren’t very high, with the worst World Series odds in the majors (+50000). But manager Dave Martinez’s place atop these odds is less about any potential Washington underperformance and more about the direction of the franchise overall.

Martinez has been at the helm since 2018, leading the Nats to a World Series title and overseeing a core that just isn’t in town anymore. He was brought in to manage the Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg version of the Nationals, and it’s only natural Washington will look for a new manager to lead a new core.

Now it doesn’t really make sense for the Nats to fire their manager midseason, given they’re not really playing for much. But a regime change at some point seems inevitable in D.C.

Rockies’ Uncertainty Could Cost Bud Black

Black enters his seventh season as Colorado manager, but the Rockies haven’t had a winning year since 2018. There are some positives in the mountains this season (Kris Bryant, Ezequiel Tovar, German Marquez), but it’s looking like 2023 could be a fifth straight losing season. Even though Colorado gave Black a one-year extension this winter, there aren’t many skippers who can survive losing for that long.

Aaron Boone Isn’t going Anywhere

Yankees fans have high expectations for their baseball club. As much as they can nitpick individual decisions and post-game quotes, Aaron Boone has met those high expectations. In four full seasons as New York manager, Boone’s Yanks have won at least 92 games every year, earned two AL East crowns and averaged 98.5 wins.

Sure, that high bar leaves plenty of room for New York to disappoint this year, but Boone has built up enough goodwill to earn the benefit of the doubt. Even if the injuries continue to pile up for the Bronx Bombers and they woefully underperform this year, Boone isn’t going anywhere.

How To Bet On Next Manager Fired Odds

Betting on the next baseball manager to be fired is just like betting on any other futures odds. You should consider which manager you want to bet on (or against, I guess), but also the value of the lines. At the sportsbook, you’ll notice the futures odds are listed like this:

In this example, Boone is the clear favorite at -150 to be fired next. If you believe that he’ll be the next manager to get the ax, you can place $150 on him to win $100 in profit if you’re right. The other two managers, Cora and Black, are more value bets, with a $100 bet on Black paying out $500 in profit in this example.

Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.