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First Manager Fired Odds: Bud Black on the Hot Seat

Bud Black is the favorite in the first manager fired odds.

How good is it to have baseball back in the spring after missing out on that last year during the COVID-19 pandemic? Good for us, but for the managers of underachieving MLB clubs, there could be some anxiety, especially for the Colorado Rockies’ Bud Black, who is the favorite in first manager fired odds.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released first manager fired odds with Black set as the +900 favorite. He’s followed by David Bell at +950, Torey Lovullo at +950, Luis Rojas at +950 and Brandon Hyde at +950 to round out the top five managers on the oddsboard.

First Manager Fired Odds

First Manager Fired Odds
Bud Black+900
David Bell+950
Torey Lovullo+950
Luis Rojas+950
Brandon Hyde+950
Aaron Boone+1100
Joe Maddon +1200
Dusty Baker+1200
Chris Woodward+1400
Tony La Russa+1500
Terry Francona+1600
Derek Shelton+1800
Mike Matheny+1800
Joe Girardi+1800
Charlie Montoyo+1800
Mike Shildt+1800
Scott Servais+1800
Gabe Kapler+1800
Dave Roberts+4000
Alex Cora+5000
A.J. Hinch+5000
David Ross+5000
Dave Martinez+5000
Bob Melvin+5000
Craig Counsell+5000
Rocco Baldelli+5000
Jayce Tingler+5000
Don Mattingly+6000
Kevin Cash+6000
Brian Snitker+6000

Odds as of April 19 at Bovada

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First Manager Fired Odds: Why Black is the Favorite

Seeing Colorado manager Bud Black as the favorite in odds to be the first manager fired shouldn’t be much of a surprise to anyone.

This is the fifth season for the Rockies with Black at the helm and the club did well in his first two seasons. It made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 but won just a single game, losing in a wild-card game in ’17 and winning a wild-card game in ’18 before being swept in three games in the NLDS.

More recently, things have taken a turn for the worse in the Mile High City, with back-to-back fourth-place finishes for the Rockies in the NL West Division in ’19 and ’20. Those struggles have carried over into the early stages of the 2021 campaign. Through the first 16 games, Colorado sits dead last in the majors with a 4-12 record.

The recent departures of all-stars DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado for greener pastures have compounded the issue. LeMahieu headed to the Bronx after the 2018 season while Arenado requested a trade and was dealt to St. Louis this past winter.

For Bud, his overall numbers aren’t promising. He had a .477 winning percentage with the Padres over eight seasons, failing to qualify for the postseason in any of those years. Now, with the Rockies, he has a .496 winning percentage, managing in five playoff games and going 1-4. With a losing record, sitting dead last in MLB and all-stars wanting to leave town, it makes a lot of sense for Bud Black to be the favorite in the first manager fired odds.

First Manager Fired Odds: Where’s the best value?

I have to preface this by saying I’m not the type of person to suggest that the early season is an indication of how the campaign will play out. However, I can’t help but sound the alarm around Aaron Boone (+1100) and the New York Yankees.

The Pinstripes are just 5-10 to open the season, which I’m not overly concerned about, but their offensive production is the surprising part. The Yankees have scored just 55 runs through 15 games, which is tied with Detroit for the fewest in the American League and the fifth-fewest in the majors.

Needed Moneyball Approach?

Only two everyday starters for the Yanks have a batting average of over .250 and only four have an on-base percentage above .300. To go back to the Moneyball approach the Oakland Athletics employed in the early 2000s, you have to get on base to score runs.

This is Boone’s fourth season in the Bronx and the club did rack up 100 wins in each of his first two seasons but played at an 89-win clip last year. Furthermore, New York won the AL East just once in those three seasons and advanced to the ALCS only once as well – simply not good enough for a franchise with the second-highest team payroll and one that is second in World Series odds.

Now, I’m not sure what kind of leash Boone has. Will they allow him to go the full season and then make a change or is this a win-now situation where we could see a new manager with the Bronx Bombers prior to the all-star game?