It’s Wednesday, September 24, and we’ve got two no-run first inning plays on the board: one built on the contrast between an elite young arm and a fading ace, and another leaning on two struggling lineups that have been sleepwalking through the first frame. Let’s dive in.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
21+ and present in OH.
NRFI Pick Today: Red Sox vs Blue Jays (-115 at FanDuel)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds – 7:07 p.m. ET
Max Scherzer is as volatile as they come, carrying an 8-8 NRFI record and an ERA north of 5.00 into tonight’s start. He’s long been a shaky first-inning pitcher, and we cashed fading him last time out, but context matters here.
Against Boston’s lineup, Scherzer has historically kept control: active Red Sox hitters are just 6-for-34 (.176) with a weak .575 OPS off him, with names like Alex Bregman (2-for-16) and Trevor Story (1-for-8) offering the largest but uninspiring sample sizes. If there’s a time for Scherzer to deliver a clean first, it’s against this particular group.
On the other side, Garrett Crochet has been everything Chicago could ask for, posting a dominant 25-6 NRFI record and pitching himself into Cy Young conversations. His combination of velocity and command has consistently stifled opponents early. Against a Toronto lineup that’s had trouble stringing together traffic in opening frames, he should be positioned to lock it down again.
Scherzer may implode later, but with Crochet mowing down bats and the Red Sox unable to square up the veteran righty in past matchups, this sets up nicely for a scoreless opening inning at -115.
NRFI Pick Today: Twins vs Rangers (-120 at DraftKings)
Twins vs Rangers Odds – 8:05 p.m. ET
At first glance, you’d expect an automatic NRFI with Jacob deGrom on the mound. But his 19-10 NRFI mark this season shows he hasn’t been perfect, and Taj Bradley (15-11 NRFI) has been just as shaky. That explains why the number sits at -120 instead of being heavily juiced.
Still, recent offensive performance paints a different picture — and it’s an ugly one. Over the last two weeks, the Rangers are batting just .179 in the first inning with a .612 OPS, a reflection of a team clearly out of the playoff hunt and going through the motions.
The Twins have somehow been even worse. In that same span, their offense has managed a dreadful .493 OPS in first innings, producing almost nothing in the way of early damage. So while deGrom and Bradley have been inconsistent, the bats they face have been completely lifeless out of the gate. Even if the pitchers aren’t razor sharp, the lack of first-inning production from either side makes this NRFI a strong lean. At -120, we’re betting on sleepy lineups to let both arms escape the first unscathed.
Different setups but the same conclusion: Crochet and Scherzer should control things in Toronto, while two struggling lineups in Texas give deGrom and Bradley a pass in the opening frame. Together, it’s a two-pack of NRFI value for Wednesday night baseball.
