The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in the first round of the NFL playoffs Sunday. The Bills will head to Jacksonville after the Jaguars won the AFC South with a 13-4 record. Buffalo is a narrow 1.5-point favorite despite playing on the road, and the total for this wild-card game has climbed from 51.5 to 52.5 points.
Bills vs Jaguars Odds
Matchup Page: Bills vs Jaguars, Jan. 11, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -1.5 (-102) | -108 | OVER 52.5 (-110) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1.5 (-120) | -108 | UNDER 52.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Jan. 7th, 2026 at FanDuel
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Bills vs Jaguars Pick - AFC Wild Card
Bills Moneyline, -118 at FanDuel
Part of my siding with the Bills comes down to their playoff experience relative to Jacksonville's. Buffalo has made the postseason every year since 2019, whereas the Jaguars only made the playoffs in 2022 during that time. Jacksonville was able to pull off an upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild card, but they fell to the Kansas City Chiefs the following week. The Bills' playoff defeats came at the hands of the Houston Texans in 2019, the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022, and the Chiefs in the other three years. Buffalo amassed seven playoff wins during that span. For comparison, the Jaguars have eight playoff wins in franchise history.
Buffalo's quarterback advantage is tied to that playoff success. Trevor Lawrence took a big step forward this season, but Josh Allen remains one of the league's best playmakers, and he's one of the most established in the postseason. The only starting quarterback in the playoffs with more postseason wins than Allen's seven is Aaron Rodgers with 11. Not even Jalen Hurts (six) or Matthew Stafford (five) have as many playoff wins as Allen does despite winning Super Bowls in recent seasons. While Allen won't be taking home a second consecutive MVP award, he still put up 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions through the air alongside 579 yards and an additional 14 scores as a runner. Lawrence's numbers compare favorably to Allen's (4,007/29/12 and 359/9), but the edge still belongs to Buffalo.
Despite that and the low spread, I'm taking the moneyline rather than the spread. While the Bills have been strong straight up, they're just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games and 8-9 ATS on the season, according to our NFL betting database. The Bills have ranged from small underdogs to large favorites in that span, and the value difference between the moneyline and the spread isn't worth risking a one-point win. It doesn't help that the Jaguars went 12-5 ATS this year, including eight consecutive covers.
I'd also look at taking the OVER, especially if it dips down a point or two from 51.5 throughout the week. Buffalo's offense finished fourth in scoring with 28.3 points per game, and Jacksonville wasn't too far behind in sixth at 27.9 PPG. Both teams rank in the top 12 in scoring defense, too, though, which is why I'm shying away from that total.
*Pick made Jan. 5th at 11:11 am ET prior to line movement. Thankfully, that movement has created a bit more value for Bills ML.
Bills vs Jaguars Prop Pick - AFC Wild Card
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards, -114 at FanDuel
Kincaid has been a consistent threat when healthy. He's averaged 43.5 receiving yards per game in his last six outings, and he's cleared 35.5 yards in five of those six games, per Outlier. Tight ends have had success against the Jaguars this season, which sets Kincaid up well. Jacksonville surrendered the 10th-most receiving yards to the position this season, with tight ends averaging just under 60 yards per game against the Jags.
*Pick made Jan. 5th at 12:20 pm ET
Bills vs Jaguars Betting Trends - AFC Wild Card
- The OVER is 5-5 in the Bills' last 10 games and 7-3 in the Jaguars' last 10, according to our NFL betting database.
- Bills QB Josh Allen has only scored a rushing touchdown in two of his last 10 games on the road, per Outlier.
- Bills TE Dalton Kincaid has exceeded 35.5 receiving yards in five of his last six games, per Outlier.
