The 2023 NFL regular season draws nearer every day, which means it's time for some win totals.
Oddsmakers have set a 2023 win total line for every NFL franchise, giving fans and bettors the opportunity to put their perceptions of squads on the line. Which teams are the books wrong about? Let's break it down below. If you need a refresher, here’s a handy guide on how to bet NFL win totals.
2023 NFL Win Totals
| Team | 2023 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2022 Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | -115 | -115 | 4-13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | -114 | -114 | 7-10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | -130 | +100 | 10-7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | -140 | +110 | 13-3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | -135 | +105 | 7-10 |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 3-14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | -145 | +115 | 12-4 |
| Cleveland Browns | 9 | -135 | +105 | 7-10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | -170 | +140 | 12-5 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | -115 | -115 | 5-12 |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 | -140 | +110 | 9-8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 8-9 |
| Houston Texans | 6.5 | -140 | +110 | 3-13-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | -135 | +105 | 4-12-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.5 | -145 | +115 | 9-8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | -135 | +105 | 14-3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | -150 | +120 | 6-11 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | -120 | -110 | 10-7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.5 | -140 | +110 | 5-12 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 | -125 | -105 | 9-8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | -115 | -115 | 13-4 |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 8-9 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 | -115 | -115 | 7-10 |
| New York Giants | 8 | -130 | +100 | 9-7-1 |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | -150 | +120 | 7-10 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | -170 | +140 | 14-3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | -140 | +110 | 9-8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | -125 | -105 | 13-4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | -150 | +120 | 9-8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | -140 | +110 | 8-9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 7-10 |
| Washington Commanders | 6.5 | -130 | +100 | 8-8-1 |
Odds as of May 23, 2023
2023 NFL Win Totals Best Bets: Jaguars OVER 9.5
Betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win 10 games seems like a sucker's bet, but hear me out.
There's something going right in Jacksonville, with QB Trevor Lawrence taking a big step forward last year and coach Doug Pederson leading the Jags to the postseason. But, this OVER bet is more about the Jags' competition in 2023.
Based off 2022-23 records, the Jaguars have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in the AFC. All three squads in their division (Titans, Colts, Texans) will have rookie QBs this year and are in retool or rebuilding mode. Add in a few more soft games against teams like the Steelers and Buccaneers and the Jags could have 12 or more victories this year.
The Jags brought out the cats for their schedule release 🤣
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) May 8, 2020
(via @Jaguars)pic.twitter.com/H9eXM099R6
Eagles OVER 10.5
This OVER is a bit more straightforward. The Eagles won 14 games last year, posted the NFL's third-best point differential, and came a few scores away from the Super Bowl. Annnnnnnnd now their win total is way down at 10.5?
Philly lost a bit of talent this year, like DB CJ Gardner-Johnson and RB Miles Sanders. But, they also had one of the most efficient offseasons in the league. With two first round picks, the Eagles were able to add elite talent like Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, and traded for a running back replacement in De'Andre Swift. There's no reason to thing 2023 won't be another 12+ win campaign in Philly.
Miami Dolphins UNDER 9.5
Sorry fins fans, these can't all be positive. When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy last year, the Dolphins wen't 8-5. When he wasn't, they went 1-3. Given the shaky health history of Tua over the last few seasons, that variance is not one I'm willing to bet on.Â
The Dolphins also have the second-hardest schedule in the league next year, with their opponents rocking a collective .554 win percentage last season.
The Dolphins cost Tua his health… and hundreds of millions. pic.twitter.com/8Qtn8LP41c
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) September 30, 2022
What Is An NFL Season Win Totals Bet?
Sometimes called an OVER/UNDER bet, you would need to decide if a team’s total wins would be more or less than the oddsmaker’s set number. These betting lines are generally created before game play starts. Oddsmakers look at previous wins, past performances, coaching moves, roster changes, injuries and the schedule before settling on a number.
Understanding NFL OVER/UNDER Odds
When you visit any NFL betting site, you’ll see NFL OVER/UNDER listed like so:
Kansas City Chiefs
OVER 12.5 (-150)
UNDERÂ 12.5 (+120)
If you think the Chiefs are going to win 13 or more games, you would take the OVER. Conversely, if you think they’ll win 12 or fewer games, you would bet the UNDER. The numbers in brackets are the actual odds. For instance, if you lay down $100 on the OVER at -150 and Kansas City wins 13 games, you’d get a payout of $166.67 – your original money is returned along with your winnings of $66.7.
If you think they’ll win fewer than 13 games and you lay down $100 on the UNDER at +120, you’d get a payout of $220 – your original money is returned along with your winnings of $120.
Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much your payout would be based on the odds and amount bet.
NFL Win Totals FAQ
Can I bet on NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals?
Yes, you can certainly bet on NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals. Oddsmakers set these OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals for all 32 NFL teams before the regular-season gets underway. Online sportsbooks take into consideration previous wins, past performances, coaching changes, roster moves, injuries, and the strength of schedules before settling on a number.
How do I bet on NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals?
An NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals bet is where sportsbooks predict a particular number (in this case how many games a team will win), and you wager on whether the actual number will be higher or lower than the oddsmakers’ set number. So long as you have a sports betting account set up, you can bet on NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals.
Which NFL teams are projected to have the most wins this season?
Oddsmakers currently have the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers win totals set at 11.5, the highest in the NFL. The team with the lowest projecting O-U win total for the 2022 NFL season is the Houston Texans at 4.5.