Wild Card Weekend continues with Chargers vs Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Los Angeles are 3.5-point underdogs on the road in New England, with the total set at 46.5. This marks the fifth matchup between these teams in the playoffs, with the Patriots leading the series 3-1. Sunday Night Football features a rousing contest between two of the NFL's rising stars as Justin Herbert and Drake Maye go battle on the gridiron.
Look for the Chargers vs Patriots odds and my best bets.
Chargers vs Patriots Odds
Matchup Page: Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots, January 11th, 8pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | +3.5 (-108) | +154 | Over 46.5 (-105) |
| New England Patriots | -3.5 (-112) | -185 | Under 46.5 (-115) |
Odds as of January 8th at [DraftKings]
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Chargers vs Patriots Picks - AFC Wild Card
Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-112), Chargers-Jaguars Teaser -130
New England finished the season a phenomenal 12-5 ATS, which tied for the best record in the NFL. However, that's been a curse of late in the playoffs, as over the past seven years teams that win more than 70% of games ATS are 3-11 ATS in the postseason.
Much has been made of New England's easy strength of schedule. The Patriots defeated just one opponent with a winning percentage over .500 at home this season, and finished 1-3 SU in those contests. The fact of the matter is the Patriots played the easiest collection of opposing passing offenses, but finished 25th in defensive DVOA. Drake Maye's stellar play, and the reputation of Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels are doing a lot to paper over the Patriots' holes.
On the flip side, removing the variance of a backup-filled Week 18, the Chargers ranked fourth in defensive EPA per play through the final four weeks of the season. Additionally, Jesse Minter's men have allowed the second-fewest explosive passes of more than 20 yards this season, which Maye and the Pats frequently rely upon. Taking away New England's downfield passing attack, which the Chargers' two-deep safety scheme is designed to do, will hamper the Patriots in this one.
The hook has me backing the reliable Chargers as underdogs. Head coach Jim Harbaugh thrives as an underdog, going 13-13 SU in his NFL coaching career. As does Herbert who is 14-6 ATS as a road dog. Plus, LA went 4-0 SU as a dog with Justin Herbert under center this season.
Chargers vs Patriots Props - AFC Wild Card
Chargers Team Total OVER 20.5 (-110)
New England's defense won't scare the Chargers. The Patriots finished 30th in opponent red zone scoring percentage, and LA has both the game-changing quarterback and downhill rushing attack to make New England pay. Vrabel's defense game up 20 or more points in five of their last nine games. The only teams they kept under 20 were the Jets (x2), Giants, and Dolphins backups.
Chargers vs Patriots Betting Trends - AFC Wild Card
- The Chargers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against New England
- The Chargers are 3-12 SU in their last 15 road games against the Patriots
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 home games
- New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
