NFL fans and analysts alike love to point out Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff's flaws. The narrative of being a "system quarterback" has followed the Cal product throughout his career. Yet, all he does is win, against the spread that is.
Incredibly, Goff has been the NFL's most profitable quarterback against the spread over the past several seasons.
Against the Spread King
Remarkably, "Mr. Perfect" leads all signal-callers with a record of 60-40-2 ATS since 2017. And while the Los Angeles Rams deemed him surplus to requirements in the Matthew Stafford trade, he's been a spread bettors' dream since moving to Detroit.
When Jared Goff is feeling it, he can fire in throws with the best of them. This is top-tier stuff. pic.twitter.com/cyKNNOROMK— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 2, 2023
Those who doubted Goff in his Rams tenure have been proven wrong. In fact, since Ben Johnson took over play-calling duties part way through the 2021 campaign, the 2016 1st-overall pick has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Looking back on his last 20 games, in which Goff and the Lions are an astounding 15-5 ATS (75%), the former Cal Golden Bear has thrown for 33 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions with a passer rating of 100.2. For context, Patrick Mahomes has a passer rating of 103.3, Joe Burrow of 95.3, Josh Allen of 94, and Aaron Rodgers' sits at 92.3 in that same timeframe. Dan Campbell's squad is 12-8 SU in those games, and are well on their way to further success in 2023.
Goff's Best Year Yet
Until recently, Goff had been on a remarkable run of mistake-free football. In fact, until Week 2 against the Seahawks, the 8th-year pivot went 383 passes without an interception, the 3rd-longest stretch in NFL history.
Those doubting Goff's ability to throw the deep ball, one of the reason's he was supposedly shipped out of LA, will be surprised to learn he leads all passers with a 146.8 passer rating on attempts over 20 yards this season. Likewise, his 58.8% deep ball completion percentage ranks 2nd in the NFL.
Moreover, he's completed nearly 70% of passes and owns the 3rd-highest Pro Football Focus grade among quarterbacks through Week 4.
Oh, and he's also led the battle-hardened Lions to tough road victories in Arrowhead Stadium and Lambeau Field.
How to Bet on Goff & the Lions
For the first time in decades, the Detroit Lions are runaway favorites to win the NFC North at -210 odds through Week 4. With their impressive victory over the Packers, and the Bears and Vikings still winless, the North seems like the Lions' division to lose.
A traditional cellar dweller in the NFC, the Lions now own the 4th-highest odds to win the conference at +850, and represent the greatest value bet on the board.
Despite that, the best futures on the Lions board is currently the OVER 10.5 total wins. The "Silver Crush" have one of the most favourable schedules in the NFL moving forward. After all, only 4 of Detroit's future opponents have a record of .500 or better. While those same opponents have combined for just a 16-28 record so far.
Buoyed by a top-tier offensive line, Detroit ranks in the top-10 in the NFL in rushing offense (10th), passing offense (8th), and total offense (8th). On top of that, the Lions own the NFL's 4th ranked defense in total yardage, led by the ferocious pass-rushing skills of 2nd-year star Aidan Hutchinson. In the end, this is the most complete team that Motown has seen in decades, and there's no reason these Lions can't surpass 10 wins.
If you're really feeling frisky, like the guy with the Detroit Lions Super Bowl 2024 tattoo, you can still bet on Jared Goff to lead his team to the promised land at +1700.