Another chapter in the NFL's oldest rivalry kicks off on Saturday night. Jordan Love leads the Green Bay Packers into battle against the Chicago Bears as 1.5-point favorites in the NFC Wild Card round. This classic NFC North showdown should feature plenty of points, as the total of 45.5 indicates.
Lock in with my best Packers vs Bears betting picks.
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Packers vs Bears Odds
Matchup Page: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears, January 10th, 8pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | -1.5 (-102) | -120 | Over 45.5 (-110) |
| Chicago Bears | +1.5 (-118) | +100 | Under 45.5 (-110) |
Odds as of January 8th at [DraftKings]
*The Packers vs Bears line has flipped from Packers +1.5 to -1.5 as of January 7th
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Packers vs Bears Picks - NFC Wild Card
Pick: OVER 45.5 (-110)
The betting trends all favor the Packers in this one, as Green Bay has dominated this rivalry of late, going 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 trips to Soldier Field.
But, the overarching question heading into this Packers vs Bears Wild Card matchup is can Green Bay stop Chicago's dominant rushing attack? The short is answer is not likely, as the Packers come into this one without their two best defensive lineman and giving up a rushing success rate of over 50% that's dead last in the NFL over the last five weeks. Which means half the time the opposition ran the football against Green Bay down the stretch, they were rewarded with a positive play. That's a tough spot for Jeff Hafley's defense to be against the Ben Johnson's unique rushing scheme.
Johnson's offensive brilliance along with Caleb Williams' out of structure ingenuity has transformed the Bears into a playoff squad. Whether or not they can win a playoff game is another matter. Chicago finished the year 16th in point differential, 16th in total team DVOA, and bottom-five in the league in yards per play allowed, and lost three of their last five games. That's hardly a recipe for success, and as experienced bettors know, most teams who overachieve during the season are swiftly punished come playoff time.
This line has moved from the Packers -1.5, to the Bears -1.5 as money rolls in on Chicago. But, the total and moneyline have stayed steady, so little has changed in the eyes of the sportsbooks. Instead of wagering on what should be a razor close decision, I'm betting on a ton of points in this Packers vs Bears showdown. Four of the last six Green Bay games have hit the OVER as the Packers defense has taken a nose dive. In fact, over the last five weeks Green Bay is 29th in dropback EPA allowed, while Chicago sits 21st. The awful defensive stats are too much too ignore, as two incredible play-callers go head-to-head, armed with two quarterbacks who will make the defense pay.
Packers vs Bears Props - NFC Wild Card
Caleb Williams O31.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
Williams has crossed 32 passing attempts in 10 of his last 11 games, while averaging 34.5 attempts. He hit this mark in both games against the Packers earlier this year, and will do so again versus a Green Bay defense missing their two greatest pass-rushing threats in Micah Parsons and Devante Wyatt. With Nate Hobbs on injured reserve the Packers are down another corner, Williams and the Bears will take advantage.
Packers vs Bears Betting Trends - NFC Wild Card
- Green Bay is 14-2 SU in its last 16 road games against Chicago
- Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games
