Texans vs Steelers AFC Wildcard Odds & Picks

CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans march in Pittsburgh as 3-point favorites against the Steelers in the AFC Wild Card playoffs. Both teams are hot heading into this one, as the Texans have won nine straight games while Pittsburgh won four of its last five to finish the season. Points will be at a premium in this Texans vs Steelers playoff matchup, as the total is set at just 38.5 points.

Texans vs Steelers Odds

Matchup Page: Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers, January 12th, 8 pm ET

**Texans vs Steelers Odds**
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Houston Texans	-3 (-105)	-155	Over 38.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Steelers	+3 (-115)	+130	Under 38.5 (-115)

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Texans vs Steelers Picks - AFC Wild Card

Pick: Texans ML (-155)

Texans vs Steelers on Monday Night Football puts Pittsburgh's two longest streaks to the test. The Steelers haven't lost at home on MNF since 1991, but also haven't won a playoff game since 2016. Something's gotta give in the AFC Wild Card round.

Adding to that narrative is Mike Tomlin's absurd run as a home underdog. After defeating the Ravens to close out the regular season, Tomlin and the Steelers are an NFL best 25-9-3 ATS as home underdogs, and have won four straight games outright. On top of that, in four games at home against the Texans since 2002, the Steelers are 3-1 SU and ATS. Which is likely why this line opened at Houston -3, even though the Steelers are 0-6 SU & ATS in their last six playoff games.

Having said that, all of the advanced metrics point to Houston being a far better football team. The Texans finished the year fourth in total DVOA, Pittsburgh was 12th. DeMeco Ryan's menacing defense finished second in EPA allowed, while Pittsburgh is 19th. Behind the pass-rushing threat of Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and the rest of the Texans' front, Houston finished second in points (17.4), and yards (279.1) allowed per game as well as fifth in opponent yards per play (4.8). Pittsburgh finished 17th (22.8 points), 26th (358 yards), and 19th (5.5 yards per play).

Ultimately, even with DK Metcalf's return, Pittsburgh lacks the skill position talent to defeat Houston. Should the Steelers fall behind early, the road back is a tough one against a robust Texans defense. While the Texans can fire the football downfield, and should have great success against a Steelers defense that's 18th in dropback success rate and 20th in dropback EPA surrendered over the last four weeks, Pittsburgh has no such luxury. Rodgers has played excellent football down the stretch, but his average yards per attempt over the past three weeks is 5.7 yards. The last time Rodgers met a Ryans' led defense in the playoffs, he was sacked five times, failed to throw a touchdown and lost the game 13-10. I like the Texans defense to squeeze the life out of an utterly mediocre Steelers offense in the Monday night AFC Wild Card.

Texans vs Steelers Props - AFC Wild Card

Texans Team Total OVER 20.5 (-112)

Houston has crossed this line in three of their last four games, averaging 28 points per contest. Additionally, the Texans have been far more explosive over the last month of the season, with CJ Stroud sitting 11th in yards per attempt. That bodes well against a Steelers defense that gave up 11.2 yards per reception this season and 53 passing plays of 20+ yards. Back Houston to score plenty of points against Pittsburgh, perhaps with an assist from their defense on Monday night.