Dolphins vs Bills Odds & Picks NFL Week 3

Thursday Night Football will be an AFC East battle between one team that is flying high in the Bills, while the Dolphins are completely desperate. Miami is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS and there are whispers of head coach Mike McDaniel being on the hot seat, while Buffalo is rolling with a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS record and fresh off a blowout of the Jets.

Check out the latest Dolphins vs Bills odds and my best bets, below.

Dolphins vs Bills Odds

Matchup Page: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills, Thursday, September 18, 8:15 pm ET

**Dolphins Vs. Bills Odds**
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Miami Dolphins	+11.5 (-110)	+575	OVER 50.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills	-11.5 (-110)	-850	UNDER 50.5 (-110)

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Dolphins vs Bills Picks - Week 3

The Bills were -10 point favorites on the lookahead line, but the game opened at -12.5 and has adjusted to -11.5. Oddsmakers are expecting fireworks as the total of 49.5 is the 2nd highest on the board this week (behind Baltimore-Detroit). It's worth noting that the total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's last six road games and Miami only mustered eight points in its only road game (Week 1 vs. Indianapolis) this year.

The Bills are 11-0 in their last 11 home games and Highmark Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Dolphins, who haven't won there since 2021. The Dolphins are 3-7 in their last 10 road games and Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa performs much worse on the road. For instance, since the start of 2024, Tagovailoa has tossed 15 touchdowns and four interceptions at home while throwing seven touchdowns and six interceptions on the road.

I have been down on this Dolphins team for a while now. Click here for a video of me saying they could finish the season with the worst record in the NFL. Miami is 0-2 and it's starting to get difficult to find reasons for optimism. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel knows his job is on the line the next few weeks, but I'm not sure this team wants to save his job. The locker room in Miami seems like a mess and their best player (Tyreek Hill) has said he doesn't want to play there.

Now, these Dolphins have a short week of travel as they head up north to the meat grinder known as the Buffalo Bills. Whether you want to talk about momentum, vibes, or performance, these teams couldn't possibly be further apart.

With the point spread at -12.5, I chose an alt spread of -14 because I expect the Bills to roll in this one just like they did in last week's 30-10 beatdown of the Jets. I'll be continuing to fade the Dolphins until they prove me wrong.

There are a few injuries to be aware of in this game. The Bills will be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver and Matt Milano. We will find out 90 minutes before game time Taron Johnson plays so his practice participation tomorrow is worth monitoring. Miami has ruled out TE Darren Waller and Jaylen Waddle is questionable.

Dolphins vs Bills Week 3 Pick: Bills -14 (+114 at bet365)

*Bet placed at 6:24 pm ET on Monday, September 15. Since that time, the alt line has adjusted and you can now find the same bet for +125. Of course, I like that number even more.

Dolphins vs Bills Props - Week 3

Including the playoffs, Josh Allen has thrown 19 touchdowns in his last seven games against the Dolphins. This is probably the worst Dolphins secondary he has ever faced with guys like Jason Marshall Jr., Jack Jones, and Storm Duck standing in his way.

Allen is a much better passer at home (despite his home stadium sometimes being full of snow) and he thew 17 of his 28 touchdowns in upstate New York last year. I shopped around at each of the best sports betting apps, and -145 for OVER 1.5 touchdown passes was the best number as some shops were as high as -154.

Dolphins vs Bills Week 3 Prop Pick: Josh Allen OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-145 at bet365)

*Bet placed at 1:22 pm ET on Tuesday, September 16. Since then, the number has adjusted to -155 and I wouldn't bet it at anything worse than -150.