The NFL playoffs kick off with an electrifying Wild Card Weekend, featuring six high-stakes matchups filled with intriguing storylines. From historic rivalries like Packers vs Bears, to an unprecedented number of road favorites, this year's slate is wide open, and ripe for chaos.
As a result, understanding key historical betting trends can give you a serious edge. From underdogs barking to road futility, there's no shortage of betting insights for this spectacular slate. Jump into the 10 NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends you need to know.
10 NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends You Need to Know
- Wild Card Underdogs Are the Play: Over the last eight NFL postseasons, Wild Card Weekend underdogs are a fantastic 27-15 ATS.
- Panthers An Historic Underdog: Carolina (+10.5) is the largest home underdog in NFL playoff history this weekend, beating the mark previously held by the Washington Commanders.
- Back Super Bowl Winners As Dogs: Over the last 22 NFL seasons, Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are 64-25-2 ATS as underdogs in the playoffs. That number balloons to 16-5 ATS since 2018. Giving Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers let another betting trend in their favor on Wild Card Weekend.
- High Total Unders: The total is all the rage in outdoor playoff games. Dating back to 2004, the UNDER is 19-8-1 in outdoor playoff contests with a total above 51, with those games going UNDER by 5.2 points per game.
- Beware of New Playoff 'Dogs: Dating back to 2017, underdogs who missed the playoffs the year prior are an outstanding 41-21 ATS.
- Buffalo's Road Playoff Meltdown: Sorry Bills Mafia, Buffalo has lost eight straight road playoff games, with their last win coming all they way back in 1993.
- Hurts Dominates At Home: Jalen Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite in his career. In the playoffs, Hurts is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, with an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.
- Mr. Irrelevant's Underdog Issue: Brock Purdy has been an underdog just four times in 51 starts as a San Francisco 49er. Kyle Shanahan's squad is 0-4 SU and ATS in those contests, failing to cover by over 12 points per game.
- Regular Season Distrust: Teams who win a ton of games against the spread have struggled in the postseason of late. Since 2017, teams with an ATS winning percentage above 70% in the regular season are 3-11 ATS in the playoffs. New England, the LA Rams and Jacksonville all enter Wild Card Weekend with a 12-5 ATS record (70.6%).
- Bears-Packers is No Rivalry: Chicago is just 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in there last 14 meetings with Green Bay. Since 2008, Da Bears are 10-27 ATS vs the Packers. The Bears have also been brutal against the NFC North in recent years, going 13-27-2 ATS in the division since 2019.
Be sure to take advantage of our best NFL promos and betting sites for your Wild Card weekend wagers!
Wild Card Dogs Are Barking
Underdogs are on quite the run on Wild Card Weekend, going 27-15 ATS since 2017. Adding to that, NFC Wild Cards have been even better going 19-9-1 ATS over the last 29 NFC Wild Card games. That lines up nicely for Carolina, Chicago and San Francisco this weekend.
On top of that, regular season records seem to matter less and less in the playoffs. Teams who won more regular season games than their opponents are on a 20-16 SU and 14-22-1 ATS Wild Card Weekend run in that same eight playoff span.
Panthers Become the Heaviest Wild Card Underdog of All-Time
Carolina enters Saturday's game against Los Angeles as a 10.5-point home underdog, the longest home dog of any team in NFL playoff history. The Panthers beat the record of the Commanders who covered the spread as 10-point home dogs to Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020. Over the last 54 NFL postseasons, teams that closed as road favorites of four or more points are 1-8 ATS, making the Panthers an even more intriguing underdog wager.
That plays along nicely with the underdog who missed the playoffs a year prior trend, who are on a 41-21 ATS playoff run. Which also applies to the Jaguars +1.5, and Bears +1.5 this weekend.
Hurts Dominates At the Linc
Discount the Eagles at your own peril. Jalen Hurts is almost unbeatable as a home favorite. Throughout his career, Hurts is a imperious 31-5 SU as a home favorite, which includes a 13-1 SU record in December or later.
With Nick Sirianni & Jalen Hurts, the Eagles have been elite at home in the playoffs:
— tom stakes (@tomstakes) January 8, 2026
• 5-0 record
• 34.8 pts per game
• 13.8 pts allowed
• 14 takeaways
• 0 turnovers pic.twitter.com/qi10fNvFtC
The former Oklahoma stud is also a phenomenal 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite in the playoffs, as the Eagles have won those games by an average of 21 points. In those contests, he's averaged 230 total yards and 2.5 total touchdowns per game with only one interception, while completing 69% of passes.
Bills Road Woes
With all of their usual foes at home this playoff season, Buffalo seems set up for a run at the Super Bowl. In order to get there, the Bills will have to overcome years of playoff futility away from home. Buffalo has lost eight straight road playoff games, with their last win coming all the way back in 1993.
Worse still, Josh Allen is 0-4 both SU & ATS on the the road in the playoffs. Allen's lost those contests despite averaging 279 yards, and three total touchdowns per game. You can back the Bills quarterback to star once again with 250 or more passing yards, and two-plus touchdowns set at +242 over at DraftKings.
