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Odds to Win the NFL MVP Award: Gurley Is a Legitimate Contender

Running back Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams evades a tackle attempt by defensive back Tramaine Brock #22 of the Denver Broncos in the third quarter of a game at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 14, 2018 in Denver, Colorado.

The NFL MVP Award has historically been dominated by quarterbacks, but a certain running back in California is making a great case to buck that trend in 2018.

At BetOnline, Patrick Mahomes remains the +200 favorite to be crowned MVP, with Drew Brees (+350), Todd Gurley (+400), Tom Brady (+900), Aaron Rodgers (+1000), Jared Goff (+1000), Carson Wentz (+1600), Philip Rivers (+2000), Kirk Cousins (+2800) and Alvin Kamara (+3300) rounding out the top 10.

Can Gurley really win the hardware?

Of the 58 MVPs ever awarded, quarterbacks have won 37 times, while running backs have won 18 times. Adrian Peterson (2012), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Shaun Alexander (2005) are the only three men to win MVP at the running back position in the last 17 years. After a monster Week 6, Gurley saw his odds to win the individual award shift from +850 all the way to +400.

Todd Gurley’s chances of becoming NFL MVP improved from +850 to +400 after Week 6.

Gurley had a banner day in the form of 208 rushing yards and two touchdowns, becoming the first Los Angeles Ram to rush for 200 yards in a single game since Marshall Faulk did it in 2001. In total, L.A. had 270 yards on the ground compared to signal-caller Jared Goff’s 174 through the air – the fourth time since 2016 that Gurley and the Rams have had more rushing yards than passing yards in a contest.

With matchups against the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers – two teams who struggle mightily to stop the run – on tap in the next few weeks, Gurley should have plenty of room to pad his eye-popping stats. Overtaking Mahomes and Brees for the top spot on the odds list will take a herculean effort, but the ultra-talented Gurley has all the tools to make a serious run.

Welcome to the party, Carson Wentz

For the first time this season, Wentz has appeared on the list and ranks well above plenty of other high-end names entering Week 7. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback has fared extremely well since returning to the team in Week 3 from a long-term knee injury, as the North Dakota State product has eight touchdown passes and only one interception to go along with 1,192 passing yards and a 104.7 quarterback rating in 2018.

Wentz is coming off an impressive effort in the Eagles’ 34-13 beatdown of the archrival New York Giants in the Week 6 edition of Thursday Night Football. He shredded the Giants secondary for three touchdowns and 278 yards through the air without turning over the ball. He’s starting to look like the same player who was the MVP front-runner prior to his season-ending injury last year, much to the chagrin of the rest of the NFL.

Here’s a look at the shop’s full list of NFL MVP odds. Who are you putting your money on?

Odds to Win the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Odds as of October 19 at BetOnline

  • Patrick Mahomes +200
  • Drew Brees +350
  • Todd Gurley +400
  • Tom Brady +900
  • Aaron Rodgers +1000
  • Jared Goff +1000
  • Carson Wentz +1600
  • Philip Rivers +2000
  • Kirk Cousins +2800
  • Alvin Kamara +3300
  • Khalil Mack +3300
  • Cam Newton +4000
  • Andy Dalton +6600
  • Ben Roethlisberger +6600
  • Deshaun Watson +6600
  • Ezekiel Elliott +6600
  • Matt Ryan +6600
  • Russell Wilson +6600
  • Baker Mayfield +10000
  • Matthew Stafford +10000
  • Mitchell Trubisky +10000

Archived Articles

Another week of NFL action is officially underway, and according to sportsbooks, Kansas City Chiefs sophomore signal-caller Patrick Mahomes remains the undisputed favorite to win the 2018 NFL MVP Award.

At BetOnline, Mahomes is the +175 favorite to win the hardware, with Drew Brees (+350), Jared Goff (+750), Tom Brady (+750), Todd Gurley (+850), Aaron Rodgers (+1100), Philip Rivers (+2000), Alvin Kamara (+2500), Khalil Mack (+2500) and Kirk Cousins (+2500) rounding out the top 10.

Make way for Brees

While it’s no surprise to see Mahomes at the top of the list, the biggest odds mover after Week 5 was New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Brees, who jumped from +600 to +350 to win the MVP Award after the Saints’ 43-19 demolition of the Washington Redskins in Monday Night Football, etched himself into the history books in the process.

Brees’ MVP odds jumped from +600 to +350 after Week 5.

The longtime Saint passed Peyton Manning to become the NFL’s all-time passing leader in the game, surpassing Brett Favre (71,838 career passing yards) and then Manning (71,940) to claim the top spot in the league’s 99-year history. Brees finished the contest with 363 yards and three touchdowns to help New Orleans move into sole possession of top spot in the NFC South.

Despite his long list of accolades, Brees has never been named MVP, yet he certainly deserves to be in the conversation even in the twilight of his career at 39.

Can a non-QB really win MVP?

Claiming the top individual honors in the NFL is no small feat for anyone outside of the quarterback position. Of the 58 MVPs ever awarded, quarterbacks have won 37 times, while running backs have won 18 times. Two MVPs went to a defensive player while one was given to a special teams player (Washington Redskins placekicker Mark Moseley in 1981).

The last defensive player to win the title was Lawrence Taylor in 1986, while J.J. Watt finished second in MVP voting in 2014. Mack has far and away been the best defensive player in the NFL entering Week 6, as the star linebacker is on pace for 20 sacks, four interceptions, 16 forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries. He is doing everything to throw his hat into the ring and then some, but I just don’t think he has a shot regardless of how eye-popping his numbers are.

Odds to Win the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Odds as of October 12 at BetOnline

  • Patrick Mahomes +175
  • Drew Brees +350
  • Jared Goff +750
  • Tom Brady +750
  • Todd Gurley +850
  • Aaron Rodgers +1100
  • Philip Rivers +2000
  • Alvin Kamara +2500
  • Khalil Mack +2500
  • Kirk Cousins +2500
  • Baker Mayfield +5000
  • Deshaun Watson +5000
  • Matthew Stafford +5000
  • Russell Wilson +5000
  • Andy Dalton +6600
  • Ben Roethlisberger +6600
  • Ezekiel Elliott +6600
  • Matt Ryan +6600
  • Mitch Trubisky +6600
  • Tyreek Hill +6600

Archived Articles

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains the favorite to win the 2018 NFL MVP Award through four weeks of action, but another signal-caller has thrown his hat into the ring at sportsbooks: Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams.

Mahomes is the +400 front-runner to earn the bragging rights at Bovada, while Goff (+500) is right behind him. Drew Brees (+600), Tom Brady (+800), Aaron Rodgers (+800), Todd Gurley (+1400), Alvin Kamara (+1600), Joe Flacco (+2000), Philip Rivers (+2500) and Carson Wentz (+2500) round out the top 10.

Goff’s MVP odds are skyrocketing right now

Goff, who was available at a price of +2200 prior to Week 4, exploded onto the scene to the tune of 465 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in the Rams’ 38-31 win over the Vikings on Thursday Night Football. The third-year pro averaged a whopping 14.1 yards per completion while leading his top three receivers to 100-yard showings.

Jared Goff’s odds to become NFL MVP rose from +2200 to +500 after Week 4.

The Cal product has looked masterful in his second year in head coach Sean McVay’s offense, completing at least 75 percent of his attempts in each of the Rams’ last three games while throwing for no less than 354 yards in any of those games. The Super Bowl favorite Rams are destined for big things in 2018, and Goff’s vast array of offensive weapons should lead to plenty more big performances as the campaign progresses.

Here comes Brady

After a rocky three weeks, the New England Patriots looked like their normal selves again in a 38-7 shellacking of the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. Brady was at the helm of the blowout, as the decorated veteran completed 23 of 35 passes for 274 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Brady connected with seven different pass catchers, including Josh Gordon, who was making his Pats debut.

Brady saw his MVP odds increase from +1200 to +800 in light of the contest, and his numbers will likely trend upward going forward with his longtime teammate Julian Edelman coming off a suspension. The Patriots look like they’re figuring it out after a bumpy September, so expect Brady’s name to remain in the MVP conversation for the remainder of the campaign.

Looking for more football betting information? Head over to our NFL page. Here’s a look at the book’s full list of MVP odds.

Odds to Win the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Odds as of October 3 at Bovada

  • Patrick Mahomes +400
  • Jared Goff +500
  • Drew Brees +600
  • Tom Brady +800
  • Aaron Rodgers +800
  • Todd Gurley +1400
  • Alvin Kamara +1600
  • Joe Flacco +2000
  • Philip Rivers +2500
  • Carson Wentz +2500
  • Cam Newton +2800
  • Matt Ryan +3300
  • Mitch Trubisky +3300
  • Khalil Mack +3300
  • Kirk Cousins +4000
  • Ezekiel Elliott +4000
  • Ben Roethlisberger +4000
  • Alex Smith +5000
  • Andy Dalton +5000
  • Russell Wilson +6600
  • Saquon Barkley +6600
  • Andrew Luck +6600
  • Julio Jones +6600
  • Michael Thomas +8000
  • Tyreek Hill +8000
  • Case Keenum +8000
  • Matthew Stafford +8000
  • Blake Bortles +8000
  • Christian McCaffrey +8000
  • Dak Prescott +8000
  • Ryan Tannehill +8000
  • Baker Mayfield +8000
  • Kareem Hunt +8000

Archived Articles

Earning the title as the National Football League Most Valuable Player is an extremely prestigious accomplishment, and as we approach Week 4 of the 2018 NFL campaign, one man has emerged as the undisputed front-runner to win the award: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes is the +300 favorite to win MVP at BetOnline, with Aaron Rodgers (+500), Drew Brees (+650), Todd Gurley (+750), Tom Brady (+1200), Carson Wentz (+2000), Jared Goff (+2200), Matt Ryan (+2500), Alvin Kamara (+3300) and Cam Newton (+3300) comprising the rest of the top 10 at the shop.

Can anyone slow down the red-hot Mahomes?

Mahomes has been otherworldly through three games, as the Texas Tech product is making Chiefs general manager Brett Veach look like a genius for trading Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins in the offseason. After throwing for three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 38-27 Week 3 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, the 23-year-old now has 13 touchdown passes without an interception, breaking the NFL record for TD passes in the first three weeks of a season. Peyton Manning tossed 12 to start the 2013 campaign with the Denver Broncos.

Mahomes, who was priced at +3300 before the start of the year, has turned the Chiefs into a legitimate Super Bowl contender despite the team boasting a defense that’s left a lot to be desired. The signal-caller is looking like the real deal, and barring injury, he’ll likely remain the MVP fave for the time being.

Hobbled Rodgers is not worth the price

Look, there’s no disputing the all-world talent Rodgers possesses, but it’s no secret the Green Bay Packers superstar hasn’t been his usual dominant self so far. Rodgers’ knee injury in the second quarter of Week 1 vs the Chicago Bears had Packers fans fearing for the worst when he was initially carted off the field, but his return in the second half set the scene for a historic comeback in a heartbreaker for the Bears.

While Rodgers’ performance in that game was something to behold, he hasn’t been 100 percent healthy since, as it’s become painfully clear he’s had issues with his mobility. He has still managed to put up six touchdowns with zero picks and 832 yards through the air through three weeks, yet I’d stay away from backing him to win the MVP right now until he looks fully healthy – especially at the current +500 price.

Running backs are looking to crash the party

The MVP award has historically been dominated by quarterbacks, but a pair of running backs have thrown their hats into the conversation thanks to fantastic starts to the season. Gurley has established himself as one of the most elite backs in the NFL, and his four touchdowns and 255 yards on the ground coupled with 121 receiving yards and a score through the air in the Los Angeles Rams’ high-octane offense have him looking like the best non-QB MVP candidate on the board.

After Gurley, the running back with the next-best shot to climb the rankings is Kamara. The New Orleans Saints sophomore sensation has put up a combined 430 yards and three touchdowns so far, but the pending return of suspended backfield mate Mark Ingram in Week 5 hurts his MVP case. Regardless, you can expect to see Kamara’s name on MVP lists for a long, long time.

Odds to Win the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Odds as of September 25 at BetOnline

  • Patrick Mahomes +300
  • Aaron Rodgers +500
  • Drew Brees +650
  • Todd Gurley +750
  • Tom Brady +1200
  • Carson Wentz +2000
  • Jared Goff +2200
  • Matt Ryan +2500
  • Alvin Kamara +3300
  • Cam Newton +3300
  • Kirk Cousins +3300
  • Philip Rivers +3300
  • Russell Wilson +3300
  • Ben Roethlisberger +4000
  • Andrew Luck +5000
  • Baker Mayfield +5000
  • Deshaun Watson +5000
  • Joe Flacco +5000
  • Matthew Stafford +5000
  • Tyreek Hill +5000
  • Antonio Brown +6600
  • Mitchell Trubisky +6600
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick +6600
  • Saquon Barkley +6600

Archived Articles

The NFL preseason is in full swing with the regular season less than a few weeks away and some familiar quarterbacks top the oddsboard to win the 2018 NFL MVP Award.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+500) has leapfrogged reigning NFL MVP Tom Brady (+850) as the betting favorite to take the hardware at online sportsbook Bovada. Carson Wentz (+700) is now second on the list ahead of Brady and was the front-runner for the 2017 MVP before going down with a knee injury in Week 13.

Stars are Aligning for Aaron Rodgers

It may be hard for Pack Nation to contain its excitement for the upcoming season. Aaron Rodgers has made a full recovery from a broken clavicle and will be ready to ascend back to his throne as the best quarterback in the world. Green Bay made some roster adjustments that should only help the two-time MVP by acquiring tight ends Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis.

Those red-zone targets along with the emergence of wide receiver Davante Adams should allow Rodgers to top 40 touchdown passes for the third time in his career. Another factor that bodes well for No. 12 is the potential voter fatigue for Tom Brady. Analysts and fans may have a hard time arguing against TB12’s Mount Rushmore status but unless the Patriots go at least 14-2 with another sensational year by the Golden Boy, voters may give the edge to Rodgers, as he plays in what is viewed as a tougher conference.

However, there are some nitpicks for Rodgers’ candidacy and that’s who the Packers have to face this season. Ten of their 16 games are against teams that ranked in the top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed per game and a stretch from Week 8 to Week 12 has a murderers’ row of road opponents (Rams, Patriots, Vikings, Seahawks). That being said, Rodgers may be one of the few quarterbacks who is matchup-proof and at +500, the value is ripe to wager on.

Bettors should Only Consider Quarterbacks

Since 2001, skilled-position players have been virtually a non-factor in MVP consideration with only three running backs taking the prize (Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Adrian Peterson in 2012). Alexander and Tomlinson were deserving of the award as they broke the single-season touchdown record in each of their respective runs. Peterson became the seventh player in NFL history to top 2,000 rushing yards in a season after suffering a torn ACL in 2011. Since 2006, only one running back has finished in the top three in voting for the award (Peterson in 2012). Those stats along with the shift of NFL teams’ focus to the passing game make it hard to endorse any tailback for this accolade.

So, by that logic, a quarterback pick should be the only wager in mind for this prop and the two players who jump out (based on the odds) are Jimmy Garoppolo (+1600) and Deshaun Watson (+1500).

DeShaun Watson had 18 touchdown passes in 6 games in 2017.

Both players had abbreviated success in 2017 with Garoppolo leading the 49ers to five straight wins to end the season while Watson exploded onto the scene in Week 2 and threw 18 touchdowns in six games before tearing his ACL. The Texans and Niners are equipped with up-and-coming rosters that could make some noise but Watson may have the edge vs Garoppolo mainly because of schedule. Watson gets to face the Colts (twice), Jets, Browns and Redskins, who all ranked in the bottom 10 in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed in 2017.

On the flip side, Garoppolo will have to contend with the surging Rams (twice), the Packers (at Lambeau Field) and the Chargers and also opens the season in Minnesota, which had the stingiest defense in the league, only allowing 15.3 points per game. This isn’t a knock on Garoppolo but more of an endorsement for Watson, who may also have more of an impact with his legs than Jimmy G can, as he is viewed as a traditional pocket passer.

Odds to Win the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Odds as of September 5 at Bovada

  • Aaron Rodgers +500
  • Carson Wentz +700
  • Tom Brady +850
  • Deshaun Watson +1500
  • Drew Brees +1600
  • Jimmy Garoppolo +1600
  • Todd Gurley +2000
  • Russell Wilson +2200
  • Cam Newton +2200
  • Matt Ryan +2200
  • Kirk Cousins +2200
  • Philip Rivers +2800
  • Andrew Luck +3000
  • Ben Roethlisberger +3000
  • Ezekiel Elliott +3000
  • Patrick Mahomes +3300
  • Dak Prescott +3500
  • Jared Goff +4000
  • Derek Carr +4000
  • Matthew Stafford +4000
  • Le'Veon Bell +4000
  • Marcus Mariota +5000
  • David Johnson +5000
  • Antonio Brown +5000
  • Mitch Trubisky +4000
  • Jameis Winston +6000
  • Case Keenum +6000
  • Alex Smith +6000
  • Saquon Barkley +6500
  • Alvin Kamara +6600
  • Blake Bortles +6600
  • Kareem Hunt +7000
  • Leonard Fournette +8000
  • Julio Jones +8500
  • Eli Manning +10000
  • Devonta Freeman +10000
  • JJ Watt +10000
  • Rob Gronkowski +10000
  • Dalvin Cook +10000
  • DeAndre Hopkins +12500
  • LeSean McCoy +12500
  • Joe Flacco +12500
  • Sam Bradford +12500
  • Tyrod Taylor +12500
  • Nick Foles +12500
  • Andy Dalton +15000
  • AJ Green +25000

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