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Will Patrick Mahomes Go Back to Back for NFL MVP?

NFL MVP 2019 Betting Odds July 10

The NFL’s most valuable player award is a coveted accolade as it all but confirms a player’s legacy and gives him a great chance to make the NFL Hall of Fame. It’s given annually to the “best” player in the league during the regular season as voted on by the media and after winning the MVP award in his first year as a starter, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is tabbed as the favorite to win it again by oddsmakers.

Online sportsbook Bovada has Mahomes as a +550 favorite to repeat as MVP for the 2019 regular season. Following Mahomes on the list are Andrew Luck (+600), Aaron Rodgers (+1000), Baker Mayfield (+1100), Drew Brees (+1200), Carson Wentz (+1200), Tom Brady (+1600), Philip Rivers (+2000), Deshaun Watson (+2000) and Mitch Trubisky (+2000) as the 10 likeliest candidates to take home the hardware.

Why is Mahomes the MVP Fave?

Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award again because of his ability to make winning plays throwing the football, his uncanny arm strength, the ability to scramble and, let’s face it, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected to win a lot of games.

Mahomes led the NFL last season with 50 touchdown passes and was second in passing yards while leading the Chiefs to the best record in the AFC. He’s the current favorite to lead the league in passing yards for the 2019 season.

Mahomes is primed to light up defenses again this season but I’m a little iffy on taking him to win MVP mainly because of the weapons at his disposal. With the off the field distractions of Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt's departure, that could hurt the Chiefs offense.

Part of the reason why Mahomes won the award was because of his gaudy stats and while I think he'll still have a great year, I think there’s better value elsewhere on the oddsboard.

Bettors Should Only Consider Quarterbacks

If you couldn’t tell from the list above, the top 10 on the MVP oddsboard are all quarterbacks and there’s a reason for that. It’s because skill players rarely win this award. Since 2001, only three skilled-position players have won MVP and they were all running backs: Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Adrian Peterson in 2011.

Alexander and Tomlinson were deserving of the award as they broke the single-season touchdown record in each of their respective runs while Peterson became the seventh player in NFL history to top 2,000 rushing yards in a season a year after suffering a torn ACL in 2011.

Since 2006, only one running back has finished in the top three in voting for the award (Peterson in 2012). Those stats along with the shift of NFL teams’ focus to the passing game make it hard to endorse any tailback for this accolade. For reference, the first players on the list who aren't quarterbacks are Aaron Donald, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, each at +5000.

Dark-Horse Quarterbacks to Bet On

The two MVP candidates that I think have the best chance to win the award, coupled with great odds, are the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson (+2500) and the Jaguars’ Nick Foles (+6600).

I’m fairly high on the Seahawks this season as I expect them to go OVER their expected win total and make the playoffs again after getting a wild-card slot last season. The Seahawks had one of the best rushing attacks in the league in 2018 because of Wilson’s ability to scramble and make plays. If Wilson carries this team to the playoffs again or wins the NFC West, he’ll be a strong candidate to win MVP.

The reason I like Foles to win MVP is because of who he’s replacing. Quarterback play in Jacksonville was so putrid with Blake Bortles that nearly anything is a step up. I don’t think I need to go too deep into the exploits of Nick Foles, who carried the Eagles to a Super Bowl 52 win and nearly to last year’s NFC title game. He has weapons to throw to, a strong running game and a ferocious defense, so if the Jags were to win the division or at least 10 games, it would be hard to dismiss Saint Nick.

Who do you think will win NFL MVP in 2019? Will Mahomes take it again? Will a running back break through and truck their way to the trophy? Let us know in the comments who will win MVP.

2019 NFL Most Valuable Player Award Odds
PlayerOdds
Patrick Mahomes+550
Andrew Luck+600
Aaron Rodgers+1000
Drew Brees+1200
Baker Mayfield+1100
Carson Wentz+1200
Tom Brady+1600
Philip Rivers+2000
Mitch Trubisky+2000
Deshaun Watson+2000
Cam Newton+2500
Russell Wilson+2500
Ben Roethlisberger+3000
Kirk Cousins+3000
Matt Ryan+3000
Jimmy Garoppolo+3300
Jared Goff+4000
Dak Prescott+5000
Aaron Donald+5000
Ezekiel Elliott+5000
Saquon Barkley+5000
Lamar Jackson +5500
Alvin Kamara+5500
Christian McCaffery+6000
Khalil Mack+6000
Le'Veon Bell+6000
Todd Gurley +6000
Kyler Murray+6600
Nick Foles+6600
David Johnson+7500
Josh Allen+7500
Sam Darnold+9000
Odell Beckham Jr.+9000
Michael Thomas+9000
Julio Jones+9000
Joey Bosa+9000
Jamies Winston+10000
Antonio Brown+10000
Juju Smith-Schuster+10000
Matthew Stafford+10000
Tyreek Hill+10000
JJ Watt+12500
Leonard Fournette+15000

Odds as of August 12 at Bovada

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