With the 2024 NFL Draft just over a week away its time to update my predictions for every team's first round pick.
A transcendent quarterback prospect in Caleb Williams, and a number of difference-making skill players including Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers headline the class.
Let's take a look at my updated predictions and best bets for the NFL Draft.
1. Chicago Bears - QB Caleb Williams, USC
On what's sure to be a first night full of surprises, the first overall pick is no secret. Sportsbooks have Williams instilled as the overwhelming favorite to hear his name called first on draft night.
Caleb Williams is one of the greatest quarterbacking prospects of the 21st century. Thankfully, Bears General Manager Ryan Poles has finally invested in the type of offensive talent that will allow his rookie quarterback to grow and flourish. With Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet in tow he walks into a ready made Chicago offense as the most talented quarterback the Bears have seen in generations.
π Diving deep into the game of Heisman Trophy winner and #USCTrojans QB Caleb Williams.
β Nick (@HolzSportsCo) August 11, 2023
Fresh off a season with 42 TDs and just 5 INTs, let's break down what makes him such a special talent.
π§΅#CalebWilliams #NFL #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/ufOXRzSuQe
Williams arm talent, play-making abilities, and high football IQ give him a Mahomes/Aaron Rodgers-like ceiling.
2024 First Overall Pick Odds
| Player | Odds To Go 1.1 |
|---|---|
| QB Caleb Williams | -8000 |
| QB Drake Maye | +3000 |
| QB Jayden Daniels | +4000 |
| QB J.J. McCarthy | +8000 |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +8000 |
| QB Michael Penix Jr. | +15000 |
2. Washington Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
Little has changed regarding the Washington Commanders pick. I still expect the new regime to draft LSU star Jayden Daniels. He has the potential to become a game-breaking dual threat quarterback in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense.
Daniels deep passing and rushing ability could make him a star in Washington. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is currently a -300 favorite to be the second overall pick.
3. New England Patriots - QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Maye is now the -145 favorite to be selected by New England. Trading back is an option for the Patriots, but New England desperately needs a new face of the franchise to help usher in the Jerod Mayo era.
At 6β4, 223 pounds, Maye has prototypical NFL size and arm strength. He also displays the pocket presence and creativity to become a special quarterback. Maye could use a year of seasoning, which may be the plan with Jacoby Brissett already on the roster.
4. Arizona Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the easiest selection in this entire draft class. He may also be the most talented player. Keep an eye on a trade for this pick, as Cardinals General Manager Monti Ossenfort loves to wheel and deal.
The in air contortion at his size is remarkable pic.twitter.com/vRIFhfEupy
β Joe OβLeary (@TheHQNerd) April 4, 2024
Junior is a much more explosive athlete than his father, with all of the route running skills and contested catch radius. Harrison Jr. is the type of game-changing prospect who can immediately change the Cardinals offense.
5. Minnesota Vikings*- Projected trade with Los Angeles Chargers - QB J.j. McCarthy, Michigan
LAC receives No. 11, No. 23, No. 157, Minnesotaβs 2025 3rd-round pick for No. 5
2024 NFL Draft Fifth Overall Pick Odds
| Player | Odds To Go 1.5 |
|---|---|
| WR Malik Nabers | +200 |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +300 |
| QB J.J. McCarthy | +430 |
| OT Joe Alt | +500 |
| WR Rome Odunze | +1600 |
McCarthy threw 44 touchdowns and nine interceptions while going 27-1 in two seasons at Michigan. While he may not have the βWowβ factor of Williams and Daniels, McCarthy processes and makes decisions quickly. He throws very well on the run and has the short and intermediate accuracy to become a quintessential West Coast quarterback.
Los Angeles is a prime trade down candidate in the 2024 NFL Draft. I love the value on McCarthy to be the fifth overall pick at +430.
6. New York Giants - WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Many have projected LSU receiver Malik Nabers to this spot, but I think Rome Odunze is the perfect receiver to get this offense humming.
With Saquon Barkley splitting for Philadelphia, the Giants are in desperate need of playmakers and Odunze checks all the boxes. The Washington standouts odds to be the sixth overall pick have fallen from +450 to +340.
7. Tennessee Titans - OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
Alt has the size and athleticism to lock down the left side of the Tennessee Titans offensive line for the next ten years.
The 6β8 321-pounder moves like a much smaller man and has the refined pass blocking skills to develop into a perennial All-Pro. Alt is a massive -135 favorite to be selected by the Titans.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
| Player | Odds To Go 1.8 |
|---|---|
| EDGE Dallas Turner | +195 |
| EDGE Laiatu Latu | +300 |
| WR Rome Odunze | +700 |
| EDGE Jared Verse | +950 |
| QB JJ McCarthy | +1100 |
Listen I just love the value on betting Verse to the Atlanta Falcons for the purpose of this NFL Mock Draft. Most prognosticators have Alabama stud Dallas Turner going here. But, Verse would likely have been a top-10 pick last season had he declared. Heβs got the size and explosive ability to be a huge contributor in the NFL for a long time.
The Florida State standout ran a 4.58 40 with a 1.6 10-yard split to go along with a 10-7 broad jump and a 35 inch vertical at the combine. Verse wins with speed, power and a plethora of pass-rushing moves already in his arsenal. Raheem Morris and co. could easily fall in love with his power at draft him at number. Take a flyer on the value here with Verse to be the 8th overall pick currently priced at +950.
9. Indianapolis Colts via Chicago Bears - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
CHI receives No. 15, No. 42, No. 151, Indianapolis 2025 2nd-round pick for No. 9
Brock Bowers led Georgia in receiving with 56 catches for 882 yards and 13 touchdowns this year.
He's a freaky athlete with YAC skills to become Anthony Richardson's best friend in Indianapolis. He's currently +1600 to be the ninth pick. Bowers is the type of juiced up modern chain mover that could spur Chris Ballard to trade into the top 10. Indy pays a steep price to arm their ascending quarterback with the type of offensive weapon who will instantly raise the ceiling of this offense.
10. New york Jets - OT Olumuyuwa Fashanu, Penn State
Olu has had the eye of NFL scouts since his senior year of high school. The Penn State standout may have the cleanest pass-blocking sets of any tackle in the 2024 NFL Draft.
one of my favorite things with Olu Fashanu (#74) is how quickly he will recognize and react DL twists and games. pic.twitter.com/5MhN0caDBB
β Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 28, 2024
While General Manager Joe Douglas has pulled off some underrated signings this off-season, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are both aging injury risks. Fashanu provides some much needed stability across an offensive line that became a revolving door in 2023.
Aaron Rodgers will need all the help up front he can get as he returns from an achilles tear in last year's opener.
11. Los Angeles Chargers*- WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Los Angeles begins the Jim Harbaugh era with a trade back that nets them a prospect widely mocked to the Chargers at the five slot.
Justin Herbert will love throwing deep balls to the most explosive receiving threat in the 2024 NFL Draft class. Nabers excelled at LSU's Pro Day with a stellar 4.35 40-yard dash, 42-inch vertical, and 10-9 broad jump.
12. Denver Broncos - EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama
Turning falling to 12 is a dream for the Broncos, who'd run this card to the podium.
Dallas Turner plays Football like a madmanππͺπΎπͺπΎ pic.twitter.com/4OXkThTOjO
β RaHIM Morrisπ₯·πΎ (@HimJ1122) April 1, 2024
He's 6'2 with an unreal 82" wingspan, and compares very favorably athletically to former All-Pro Von Miller.
13. Las Vegas Raiders - CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Mitchell climbed draft boards at the Senior Bowl, before blowing up the Scouting Combine with a 4.33 40 and a 38-inch vertical.
He's got excellent change of direction skills with the anticipation to be an impact player in the NFL. He immediately steps into a starting spot in the lacking Las Vegas secondary.
14. New Orleans Saints - OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Fuaga is a nasty, old-school road grader with the agility to become an elite right tackle.
He's a physical powerhouse who could take over for the struggling Trevor Penning on New Orleans' offensive line.
15. Chicago Bears via Indianapolis Colts - OT/G Troy Fautanu, Washington
Troy Fautanu wave drill Makes it look easy pic.twitter.com/DU7UCBp5Xb
β Billy M (@BillyM_91) March 3, 2024
Fautanu started 29 games at left tackle and has the athletic fluidity to play anywhere along the offensive front.
16. Philadelphia Eagles Via Seattle Seahawks - CB/S Cooper DeJean, Iowa
SEA receives No. 22, No. 50, Philadelphia 2025 3rd-round pick for No. 16
Philly jumps the queue for Dejean.
Eagles brass met with the Iowa corner this week, and have to be impressed with athleticism, tackling and football IQ.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers*- Proposed Trade with Jacksonville - OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
Mims may be the most physically gifted lineman in this class. He's a colossus at 6'8, 340 pounds with the hands and bend to deter all types of pass rushers on the edge.
The Georgia product provides a huge upgrade to the left side of the Steelers offensive line. Mims will be an integral part of protecting Russell Wilson/Justin Fields in 2024.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - OT JC Latham, Alabama
Latham is a mauler. At 6'6, 342 pounds the Alabama right tackle has the size and strength to crush everything in his path. Cincinnati has targeted players of similar builds on the offensive line, including former tackle La'el Collins. Look for the Bengals to do the same in the 2024 NFL Draft, as they look to keep franchise passer Joe Burrow healthy.
19. Los Angeles Rams - DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
You may heard the news that all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired this off-season. Now, no player is going to fill the void of the legendary No. 99, but in Newton the Rams acquire a player with perennial Pro Bowl upside.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars* via Pittsburgh - CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
Corner is the hefty favorite to be the position of the Jags first player drafted at -160 odds.
Wiggins is a fluid mover in space, with the speed and length to successfully disrupt receivers down field. His back pedal and transition are elite. He's the Jaguars answer to the plethora of receiving talent making its way to the AFC South.
21. Miami Dolphins - OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Miami lost Robert Hunt in free agency and have a gaping hole up front. The Dolphins lack depth across the interior. With Isiah Wynn now set to start at right guard, Powers-Johnson has the ability to win a starting job the moment he steps onto Miami's practice field.
He dominated one-on-one reps at the Senior and has the stout base and football intelligence of a decade long starter at either center or guard.
22. Seattle Seahawks via Philadelphia Eagles - DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
Murphy's a twitched up 3-tech with the first step to become an impact pass-rusher in the NFL. He led all power-five defensive tackles with a 90.2 PFF pass rush grade over the past three years. He also boasts a 12.5% career pressure rate.
Byron Murphy II is a DT prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.20 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 140 out of 1735 DT from 1987 to 2024.https://t.co/2y4feL3hwy pic.twitter.com/e5p9UihnVG
β Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 2, 2024
Murphy's currently being discussed as a top-15 pick in NFL circles. Seattle stops his fall at 22. The Seahawks are just +175 to draft a defensive lineman first in 2024 NFL Draft.
23. Los Angeles Chargers* - EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
Latu won't have to travel far to find his new home. Furthering the connection, Latu recently had a top-30 visit with the Chargers.
The superlatives run strong for a favorite of #DraftTwitter, who impresses with an array of pass-rush moves. He expertly deploys the swim, cross chops, hump, push-pull and Euro-step to keep offensive linemans' heads spinning.
For all reasons on tape that make you believe @UCLAFootball EDGE Laiatu Latu will be double-digit sack producer early in his NFL career, the main reason is that he πππππ football.
β Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 16, 2024
Don't care how this may come across...when other players in this draft class declined⦠pic.twitter.com/bDM2OF6aF1
Latu led the nation in pass-rush win rate in 2023. He falls this far due to medical concerns pertaining to a neck injury that forced him to retire for a season.
24. Dallas Cowboys - WR Brian Thomas Jr, LSU
Thomas is the type of elite separator who can elevate the Cowboys offense to new heights. Mike McCarthy has struggled to scheme players open when defenses manage to key in on Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks isn't that guy anymore.
Thomas possesses the explosiveness and deep ball skills to make an immediate impact on America's Team. Wide receiver at +600 to be the Cowboys first position drafted is one of my favorite NFL Draft value bets.
25. Green Bay Packers - CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
McKinstry falling into the lap for the Packers is a god send. Green Bay lacks the depth of other elite teams on the back end of their defense. Yet, cornerback is at +185 odds to be the position chosen first by Brian Gutekunst and company.
While Jaire Alexander remains an elite player, he's played in just over half the Packers games over the past two seasons. Former first-round pick Eric Stokes has likewise missed most of the last two years through injury. McKinstry length and physicality would be welcomed with open arms in new coordinator Jeff Hafley's aggressive defense.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
Tampa would run this card to the podium on April 25th. New $100M man Baker Mayfield was sacked 40 times in 2023.
Guyton possesses the awareness, athleticism, and length to be a top-tier NFL offensive tackle. Offensive lineman can be found at +210 to be the first position drafted by Jason Licht and the Bucs.
27. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
Robinson is a twitched up pass rusher with the bend to terrorize NFL offensive tackles for years to come.
He immediately upgrades a Cardinals defense crying out for a threat on the edge.
28. Buffalo Bills - WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
Buffalo desperately needs to acquire some skill players after trading Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency.
Mitchell has the athletic profile of difference-making wide receiver in the NFL. He hauled in 11 touchdowns last season, and would step right is as Josh Allen's number one target.
29. Las Vegas Raiders* - Projected trade with Detroit lions - QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
We've seen teams trade up for quarterback prospects late in the first-round in order to use the valuable fifth-year option. As the Ravens did for Lamar Jackson in 2018. Here, the Raiders take a swing on perhaps the best deep-ball passer in the class.
Penix has the ability to layer throws deep down the field, on a rope to wide receivers. He'll fit in well while firing the football to Davante Adams. Sportsbooks currently have the Raiders as +380 favorites to be the team to select the former Huskies star.
30. Baltimore Ravens - WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
With few needs on their roster, the Ravens pull the trigger on Florida State star Keon Coleman.
He may not have the separation skills that are so coveted at the wideout position in modern times. But, the Ravens have Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman for that. Coleman is a physical marvel in the mould of DK Metcalf.
Keon Coleman propaganda II
β Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) April 4, 2024
My heart likes Keon Coleman far more than my head says it should, so I will be re-posting anything that makes my heart feel better about that state.
Like this move on the defender after the catch: pic.twitter.com/0uDCx1dJ5l
Remember when DK and Russell Wilson used to cook? I think Coleman can elevate Lamar Jackson's game in a similar vein. Wide receiver to be the Ravens first position drafted currently sits at +470. Go get it while you can.
31. San Francisco 49ers - OL Graham Barton, Duke
With Offensive Lineman being the favorite to head to San Francisco in the first round at -110 odds, John Lynch grabs one of the NFL Draft's safest prospects.
Barton's elite athleticism and positional versatility fit right in with a 49ers squad desperately needing reinforcements up front.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
Suamataia is an explosive athlete (9.4 Relative Athletic Score per @MathBomb) with the length and mass to power defensive lineman out of gaps.
He's a little raw in his pass set and will need to be locked in the offensive line coaches' office for a year, but Suamataia has all the tools to be a longtime NFL starter. Kansas City will be searching for an answer at left tackle after choosing not to re-sign veteran Donovan Smith. While right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggled for much of the season. Depth on the offensive line will be crucial as Kansas City chases their third straight Super Bowl Championship.
