Miami Heat 2025-2026 Season Preview, Betting Odds

The Miami Heat's immediate and long-term future is currently handcuffed to the status of Tyler Herro, as he's eligible for a three-year contract extension worth $150 million but is also expected to miss eight weeks after undergoing surgery on his left ankle on September 19. Making such a commitment to the 25-year-old guard is risky, and may continue to cap any potential success the franchise could have if both he and Bam Adebayo are the ones leading the charge.

This 2025-26 NBA season preview will cover all betting odds pertaining to a Heat team that's emerged from the play-in tournament each of the last two years to qualify for the postseason, which is a scenario they'll likely welcome once again considering their current makeup.

(Betting odds will be updated up until the start of the regular season. Be sure to check in regularly for any changes to numbers and picks)

Miami Heat 2025 NBA Draft

Selected Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois) No. 20 overall

Miami Heat 2025 Re-Signings

Nikola Jovic agrees to four-year, $62.4-million extension

Miami Heat 2025 Additions

Precious Achiuwa agrees to one-year contract
Simone Fontecchio acquired via trade with Detroit Pistons
Davion Mitchell agrees to two-year, $24-million contract
Norman Powell acquired via trade with Los Angeles Clippers

Miami Heat 2025 Departures

Kyle Anderson traded to Utah Jazz
Haywood Highsmith traded to Brooklyn Nets
Kevin Love traded to Utah Jazz
Duncan Robinson sign-and-traded to Utah Jazz

Miami Heat 2026 NBA Championship, Eastern Conference, Southeast Division Betting Odds

Team	NBA Finals Odds	Eastern Conference Odds	Southeast Division Odds
Miami Heat	+20000	+4500	+1700

Best Bet: N/A

Team president Pat Riley used to be able to bank on the fact that elite names from across the Association wanted to suit up in South Beach, with its party-like atmosphere, beautiful weather, and lack of state income tax being more than enough reason to join the Heat and compete for championships. That perceived desire has quickly vanished, though, whether you want to attribute that to Riley's demanding personality, "Heat Culture," or the nature in which superstars like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Jimmy Butler have been treated. With those names now a thing of the past, what remains are two All-Stars in Herro and Adebayo who can carry the torch, although neither player is widely perceived as being a No. 1 option on a potential title contender. When excellence of the highest quality is never not expected, falling short of that mark stings just a little bit more, but the front office must take its fair share of the blame for poor roster construction and middling results.

With Herro likely sidelined until mid-November, at the very least, Miami will require more production from the likes of youngsters Kel'el Ware (22), Nikola Jovic (22), and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (24) to aid Adebayo in avoiding an early collapse. Norman Powell arrives in a three-team trade following what was easily the best year of his 10-year career last season with the Los Angeles Clippers, and Davion Mitchell's surprise 30-game sprint after his arrival as part of the blockbuster Butler trade earned him a well-deserved two-year contract to stick around. Scoring is important when losing one of 30 players to average better than 23 points per game in 2023-24, and even more so when taking into account that the Heat are one of four teams to rank in the bottom-third of the league in offense three years in a row. Miami has overcome their offensive deficiencies by being a top-10 defense each of the last five years, and perhaps Powell and a full year of Mitchell can help bring more of a balance to both ends.

Herro won't miss too many games initially, and he's coming off his first All-Star berth of his blossoming career, but cracking the top six in the Eastern Conference will still prove to be a chore for the Heat even if he's available for the long haul. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has worked miracles in the past, especially during that unforeseen 2023 Finals run, but this group doesn't have a Butler-esque talent who can put the team on his back and win a round or two. Advancing through the play-in bracket is admirable, but the gold pot at the end of the rainbow is a best-of-seven series with either the Cleveland Cavaliers or New York Knicks, in all likelihood, and that will spell demise once again for Miami.

Miami Heat 2025-26 NBA Win Total, Make Playoffs Odds

Team	Win Total	OVER	UNDER	Odds To Make Playoffs
Miami Heat	37.5	+100	-122	+136

Best Bet: UNDER 37.5 wins, -122

A 37.5-win total is in line with how the Heat fared this past season at 37-45, so you're essentially projecting whether or not they'll be better or worse off of that record alone. An UNDER would result in the first stretch of consecutive losing seasons since 2002 and 2003, which goes to show the model of consistency Miami has been.

Six of the team's first eight games sans Herro will be away from the Kaseya Center, and all but the opener against the Orlando Magic is against Western Conference competition. The only no-brainer winnable game of that run is versus the Charlotte Hornets on Oct. 28, so we could see the Heat get off to a 2-6 start or even 1-7 based on the level of competition. That's what any team should want, and while it's only eight out of 82 matchups, we'll learn a lot about what the DNA of the team and if an OVER is even doable.

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Miami Heat 2025-26 NBA Awards Odds

Name	MVP	Defensive	Rookie	Most Improved	Sixth Man	Clutch	Finals MVP	Coach
Bam Adebayo	+100000	+10000				+15000	+35000
Tyler Herro	+100000						+35000
Kasparas Jakucionis			+10000
Nikola Jovic				+4000	+7500
Davion Mitchell				+5000	+6000
Kel'el Ware				+10000
Norman Powell					+2500	+20000	+50000
Erik Spoelstra								+2000

Best Bet: Norman Powell for NBA Sixth Man of the year, +2500

Powell should see some time in the starting lineup with Herro out, but upon the latter's return, the 32-year-old veteran will likely be the first name called off the bench with Mitchell running the point, Herro at shooting guard, and Andrew Wiggins at small forward. He did finish fourth in Sixth Man of the Year voting in both 2023 and 2024 before starting all 60 of his appearances last season for Los Angeles, so the transition back to being a reserve shouldn't be too jarring.

Across those 60 outings, Powell averaged a career-best 21.8 points on 48.4 percent shooting from the field and 41.4 percent from 3-point range. He had just one year remaining on his contract and became expendable to the Clippers for his one-dimensional style which offers little to no value defensively, but Miami has options to compensate for Powell's limitations on that end, so if all he'll do is score in transition and bury triples, that's more than okay. Mitchell and Nikola Jovic are also listed in this future, and Spoelstra's rotations should remain fluid, but for now, Powell's chip on his shoulder, his recent success, and the scoring opportunities he'll have keep him a leg above the rest.