There has been a lot of, uh, controversy surrounding the quality of the umpiring in Major League Baseball over the last while.
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Umpiring is undoubtedly a difficult job, and Major League Baseball has expanded its automated strike zone experiment to Triple-A partly as a result. Umpiring has always been a prominent topic of discussion in baseball, but this year seems to be taking the discourse to new heights.
We’ve seen players and managers get tossed for arguing calls lots of times this season and there are even Twitter accounts that track the umps and break down how bad some of them were on a given night around the league.
Umpire Angel Hernandez was the lowest rated umpire on the day, missing 19 calls for a correct percentage of 85.3%.— Umpire Auditor (@UmpireAuditor) April 25, 2022
He rang up 6 batters on pitches that were outside the zone and called a strike to Jean Segura that missed inside by a season high 6.47 inches.#Brewers #Phillies pic.twitter.com/pmmt1ELJJ6
Some people have even dubbed the phenomenon of bad umpiring this season as the “Ump Show,” inferring that some umps might be intentionally making bad calls for attention.
We’re not sure about that last part, but we were wondering how some umps call certain teams. Many fans believe certain umpires are biased against their favorite team, but is it true?
Read below to see umpire betting trends and which umps tend to push game totals OVER or UNDER and how some teams do against the spread (ATS) with certain umpires behind home plate.
Because umpiring crews and MLB teams experience so many changes every year, we looked at just the last three seasons of data to get our results. Here are some of the umpire betting trend outliers:
Top Five Most Profitable Umps ATS
- Adam Beck — Atlanta Braves are 7-3 on the runline for a profit of +$527.2 ATS when Beck umps (assuming a regular $100 bettor)
- Brian Knight – Texas Rangers are 8-2 on the runline for a profit of +$433.86 ATS when Knight umps
- Ted Barrett – Oakland Athletics are 8-3 on the runline for a profit of +$385.83 ATS when Barrett umps
- Dan Iassogna – Boston Red Sox are 7-3 on the runline for a profit of +$383.54 ATS when Iassogna umps
- Adam Hamari – The San Francisco Giants are 8-3 on the runline for a profit of +$345.67 ATS when Hamari umps
Over the last three seasons, betting on the Braves when Adam Beck is behind home plate has been the most profitable bet to make.
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Bet The OVER On These Umps
- Edwin Moscoso – Arizona Diamondbacks OVER is 9-2 for a profit of +$650.98 when Moscoso umps
- Brian Knight – Texas Rangers OVER is 7-1-3 for a profit of +$547.73 when Knight umps
- Bill Miller – Seattle Mariners OVER is 8-2 for a profit of +$518.34 when Miller umps
- Mark Ripperger – San Diego Padres OVER is 8-3 for a profit of +$450.12 when Ripperger umps
- Lance Barrett – San Francisco Giants OVER is 7-3 for a profit of +$324.9 when Barrett umps
The one interesting note from these OVER plays is that the Rangers both cover the runline (8-2) and hit the OVER (7-1-3) with Brian Knight behind home plate in the last three years. The Rangers have been a pretty unpredictable team in recent seasons, but maybe Knight just inspires their big bats.
Bet The UNDER On These Umps
- Pat Hoberg – Chicago Cubs UNDER is 9-1 for a profit of +$743.72 when Hoberg umps
- Jeremie Rehak – Minnesota Twins UNDER is 6-1-3 for a profit of +$463.64 when Rehak umps
- Adam Hamari – San Francisco Giants UNDER is 8-3 for a profit +$410.06 when Hamari umps
- Nick Mahrley – Oakland Athletics UNDER is 7-3 for a profit of +$356.68 when Mahrley umps
- Ron Kulpa – Boston Red Sox UNDER is 7-3 for a profit of +$347.73 when Kulpa umps
Betting the UNDER on Cubs games with Pat Hoberg umpiring has been a great play over the last three seasons. What is interesting to note is that Hoberg is widely considered one of the best balls-and-strikes umpires in baseball, with one of the top success rates on his calls behind the plate. So it’s not like he’s cheating teams out of runs leading to UNDERs.
Where To Bet On MLB Umpire Betting Trends
If you’re looking to use these MLB umpire betting trends to make some baseball wagers, head over to one of our top baseball betting sites.
Our top sites like Sportsbook have the best baseball lines as well as general MLB futures. If you’re looking for other MLB betting resources, check out our How To Bet On MLB page to get started or our MLB odds for daily scores and lines.