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Euro 2020 Odds: England and France are Betting Favorites

Euro 2020 odds are out and England and France are the Favorites

A pandemic forced the postponement of the best national tournament in Europe last year. Finally, the rescheduled start of the European Championship is imminent with the competition expected to begin in a little under a month.

Who are the favorites to win? Which teams will make the quarters, semis and finals? We break down the knockout stages of the competition in detail.

In the latest Euro 2020 odds via Bovada, England (+500) and France (+500) are the betting favorites, with Belgium (+600), Germany (+700) and Spain (+800) rounding out the top five on the oddsboard. Portugal is currently at +900 to defend its title.

Who are the Euro Cup Betting Favorites?

Odds to win Euro 2020
Czech Republic+15000
Finland +35000
North Macedonia+50000

Odds as of May 17 at Bovada

Picking a Favorite to Win Euro 2020

There are two teams at the top of the Euro 2020 odds for this tournament: England (+500) and France (+500). From Odds Shark’s previous update, England’s Euro outright odds have remained the same while France’s have shortened, making it a joint favorite.

Let’s try to understand if either team is worth a punt. England has one of the strongest club leagues in the world in the English Premier League. Almost all players on Gareth Southgate’s squad have participated in the EPL, with the notable exception of Jadon Sancho. As was the case in the 2018 FIFA World Cup, England will stake a claim for the title.

France possesses one of the most enigmatic teams in the world. Kylian Mbappe is one of the brightest young players in world soccer. There is plenty of additional offensive firepower in Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud. Considering how the team transitions through phases, catching France on the counter-attack won’t be easy, especially with N’Golo Kante playing the role of holding midfielder.

The implied probability for England and France to win, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, is 16.67 percent each.

See Odds Shark’s Best Euro 2020 Betting Sites

Belgium Could Have Tough Road to Euro 2020 Glory

Belgium’s Euro 2020 odds have lengthened to +600, making that an even more compelling bet. Kevin De Bruyne has been arguably the best player in the English Premier League for the second year running. Eden Hazard is slowly finding his rhythm after injury. Romelu Lukaku, now in the Serie A, will start up front. To win tournaments like these, the ability to score goals becomes a requisite. And that, in turn, boils down to the quality of chances created. With De Bruyne and Hazard, there will surely be quality. Belgium’s implied probability to win this competition is 14.29 percent.

What About Germany and Spain?

Germany (+700) and Spain (+800) are two powerhouses of world soccer. Both teams have won major tournaments previously and will carry plenty of confidence into this competition as well. Crucially, however, both teams have lost some stars to retirement in the last few years. Germany is also placed in the “group of death” (Group F). Prudent sense in this situation would be to refrain from placing a bet on Germany until it clears that group. These Euro 2020 odds are solid but there’s no harm in being patient to reduce your risk exposure.

Will Portugal Defend the Title? 

The first task for the defending champions would be to get out of Group F. That in itself will be the story of the group stage. Portugal’s Euro 2020 odds are now +900, suggesting that there will be an intense fight right through the tournament for Portugal. That’s not sustainable over a period of multiple games even for a team with as much quality as Portugal.

Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo and Bernardo Silva will play a key role in the middle and final third but is there enough defensive strength in that roster? Other noteworthy players on Portugal’s squad are Liverpool’s Diogo Jota, Wolves’ Joao Moutinho, Ruben Neves, Nelson Semedo and Rui Patricio, and Manchester City’s Joao Cancelo.

Left-Field Picks to Win Euro 2020

Italy (+950) is a left-field choice solely based on these Euro 2020 odds. It should cruise through its group without much hassle, which could ease the fixture scheduling come the knockouts. On paper, Italy doesn’t have too much depth to challenge the Euro 2020 favorites, though. Multiple players will have to have a spectacular tournament for Italy to move past the quarterfinals.

Netherlands’ odds have changed drastically from the previous update on Odds Shark. At that point, Netherlands was at +900 in the Euro 2020 odds list but that has now lengthened to +1200. Part of the reasoning for that was Virgil van Dijk ruling himself out of the tournament due to an anterior cruciate ligament injury. Defender Sven Botman was also not named in Netherlands’ provisional 34-member squad. Aston Villa’s Anwar El-Ghazi has been included for the first time in six years after an impressive campaign in the EPL this season.

Any Outside Options?

Before you place a wild bet on one of the atypical options, you first need to structure your analysis. There are two important factors: the difficulty level of the group stage and the depth of the roster.

Croatia (+3300) is not a bad option at these Euro 2020 odds. Here’s why. Croatia should finish second in Group D, behind England. Then, it comes down to two games: the Round of 16 and the quarters. Even if the team can’t win the semifinals, you could get a lucrative cash-out depending on the sportsbook of your choice. Bruno Petković and Luka Modric have to lead Croatia through these tricky games, which isn’t implausible at this stage.

Denmark (+2800), Turkey (+6000) and Poland (+8000) round up the outside chances to win Euro 2020.

Which Team to Bet On?

Without making this decision overly simplistic, England, France and Belgium have the best squads with excellent management. It’s not surprising they have the lowest Euro 2020 odds. However, I’d be taking a slightly different approach. I don’t have much doubt about Belgium’s ability to make the semifinals. From there, it comes down to two games. It has plenty of big-game players to be able to stave off the pressure of the knockouts.

If I had to choose one team to win Euro 2020 at this point, it would be Belgium. However, there is a case for France as well, especially if it can stay healthy through the entirety of the tournament.

My betting strategy would be to divide my investment between Belgium and France. Stake between 75 and 80 percent of your investment on Belgium and the remaining on France. If you feel that is too rich for your portfolio, you could get a decent cash-out option, particularly when France clears the “group of death.” 

If you feel you’d prefer to move through the Euro 2020 competition stage by stage, there are also lucrative Euro 2020 betting odds on Bovada to make each stage of the tournament. We break those down below.

Odds to Reach the Quarterfinal

Euro 2020 Quarterfinal Odds
Czech Republic+450
North Macedonia+2200

Odds as of May 17 at Bovada

Easy Routes for the Favorites

This market will come down to probability. I highly suggest you have a look at the Round of 16 fixture schedule before you make your decisions. Here’s an example to explain further.

The first game of the Round of 16 is between the second team in Group A and the second team in Group B. That could be between Russia or Denmark and Turkey, Switzerland or Wales. If you fancy Russia to be strong through the group stage, then it could be a lucrative option at Euro 2020 odds of +225 to reach the quarterfinals.

Another example: the second game of the Round of 16 is between the winner of Group A and the second-place team in Group C. At this stage, the likely outcome is Italy against Ukraine. Considering this fixture, Italy at odds of -165 is quite favorable. I’d be happy to back Italy to make the quarters if events pan out as expected.

Based on the Euro 2020 odds, Spain (-250), Belgium (-200), England (-175), Netherlands (-165) and France (-175) are all expected to lead their respective groups, which will be a massive advantage in terms of scheduling.

Which Teams to Avoid For This Market?

The middle third of the above oddsboard are all ripe to avoid. Germany (-140) and Portugal (EVEN) are in the same group as France, which means there is uncertainty around qualification seeding. I would also avoid Denmark (+135) and Poland (+225).

Left-Field Picks to Reach the Quarters

Wales (+400) will need a lot to go its way to make the quarterfinals but these Euro 2020 odds are a fair reflection of the value in this selection. If it can finish second in Group B, it could have an even matchup against Russia. Euro 2020 odds of +400 on Wales for that fixture suddenly look enticing.

The other option that provides serious value is Croatia (+135). The breakdown is simple. On June 28, the second team in Group D will face the second team in Group E in Copenhagen. Croatia will likely finish second in Group D to set up its clash with either Sweden or Poland. If that’s the case, Croatia becomes far too compelling to ignore.

The semifinals will follow with four teams making that stage. Which teams will advance to play in the final week of the tournament?

Odds to Reach the Semifinal

Euro 2020 Semifinal Odds
Czech Republic+1500
North Macedonia+6600

Odds as of May 17 at Bovada

Which Teams to Back to Reach the Semis?

Here is where following the scheduling gets chaotic. You might be in a better position if you just back your gut. Still, I’ll try to ease your research with some analysis of the scheduling.

One quarterfinal will be between the winners of the second and fourth matches of the Round of 16. If the games go according to expectations – and that’s a fairly important disclaimer – it’s likely that Italy will face Belgium in the quarters. As a result, I would back Belgium (+125) and avoid Italy (+200).

Another quarterfinal will be between the winners of the seventh and eighth matches of the Round of 16. That could be a blockbuster game between England and Spain. Of course, positioning could change this scheduling drastically but it’s better to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. In this case, I’d back England (+135) and avoid Spain (+160) to reach the semis.

The winner of the Round of 16 game between the second-place teams in Groups D and E will likely face the leader of Group F. That could be Germany (+160) or France (+125) with a relatively easy route to the quarters and subsequently the semifinals. You could factor that into your early Euro 2020 futures betting.

From a pure scheduling and forecasting standpoint, the one that is most likely to make the semis is Belgium, with an implied probability to advance at 44.44 percent.

Ignoring all the potential fixtures, the odds for Portugal (+225) to advance are extremely tempting. It would require a bit of luck and some fantastic soccer but Portugal is a defending champion, after all.

Then comes the grand finale. We break down Bovada’s market for teams to reach the final.

Odds to Reach the Euro Final

Euro 2020 Final Odds
Czech Republic+3500
North Macedonia+15000

Odds as of May 17 at Bovada

Favorites to Reach the Final

This market won’t need an in-depth analysis into the scheduling because come the semifinals, it’s anyone’s game. It’s hard to look past the top three in this market: England (+250), France (+250) and Belgium (+275), also the three favored teams to win the competition outright.

If it’s possible, based on how the teams stack up, I’d say the final could see Belgium facing France. Of course, a lot has to go exactly as planned for that to happen, which is almost impossible. On paper, though, it’s not a bad bet. Nothing against England but it has faltered too often at the biggest stage, which could be a sticking point in the closing stages of games.

The Outside Contenders

Germany (+350) and Spain (+350) have the exact same Euro 2020 odds to make the final, while Portugal is at +400 to have a chance to defend its Euro title. After Italy (+450) and Netherlands (+500), the field thins out. I wouldn’t look past this stage because the depth of personnel is just not there in the rest of the pool. Also, it’s important to note that a team could spring an upset in one or two games. However, over the course of a tournament, the more skilled teams almost always win out against the luck of the underdog.

As always, we’ll be back soon to update this page with news and analysis as the tournament draws closer to the start. Be sure to check this page before placing your Euro 2020 bets, especially considering the fluid nature of sport during COVID-19.

See Odds Shark’s Best Soccer Betting Sites

How to Read Euro 2020 Odds

At any soccer betting site, you’ll see futures odds laid out like so:

England +500

Belgium +550

France +550

Spain +700

If you were to make a traditional straight-up bet, the favorite would be shown with the minus sign (-). In cases like these where there is no clear front-runner, the country with the lowest odds is the fave even if they’re all represented with the plus sign (+) which is generally used to demonstrate underdogs.

Let’s say you’ve looked at the group schedule and think Sweden is going to dominate and make it all the way to the top. A $100 bet would give you a payout of $1,350 – your original money is returned coupled with your winnings of $1,250.

Our Odds Calculator is a tool that will tell you how much you’d win based on the offered odds and amount bet.

What is a Futures Bet on the Euro Championship?

A futures bet is a wager made far in advance of a big event. Here, the bet is on the quadrennial Euro contest. It can be said that most bets are made prior to a sporting matchup, but futures can be placed weeks, months or even years in advance. In fact, as soon as the last championship is won, new odds will be released.

The odds will shift as the group stage gets closer and continue to move until right before the final is played at Wembley Stadium on July 11, 2021. If you see odds you like, take them to get the most value on your bets (should you win).