2019 Preakness Stakes Odds: War of Will Can Turn Tables

A field of 13 will line up in the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico, and while there is no Triple Crown bid hanging in the balance, it is a wide-open betting race.

With Kentucky Derby winner Country House nursing a cough, and the disqualified Maximum Security in his barn waiting for a race later this summer, Improbable is the early betting favorite for the second jewel of the Triple Crown at +250 at Bovada.

The colt crossed the wire fifth in the Kentucky Derby, moved up to fourth after the disqualification of Maximum Security. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is seeking a record eighth win in the Preakness and third in the last five years.

Here is a look at my top three choices for the race:

War of Will (+400)

The colt took the worst of it in the bumping incident at the 5/16th's in the Kentucky Derby. Maximum Security veered in starting a chain reaction. It looked for a second as if the colt would go down, but jockey Tyler Gaffalione righted his mount and it looked as if he would go on, but instead he weakened to finish eighth while beaten 4 1/2 lengths.

He may have come into the race a bit short. He just did not fire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his final prep, checking in ninth and beaten 12 lengths at 4-5. He had won the Risen Star (G2) and LeComte (G3) in his first two starts of the year. He mixed it up in graded stakes while still a maiden last year, running second in the Summer (G1) in his second career start and was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) when fifth.

The colt has looked good in the mornings since the Derby and he should be tighter and ready for a top effort here.

Bourbon War (+600)

The colt adds blinkers and makes his first start since a fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). He got no pace to run at that day as Maximum Security was able to take the field gate to wire on a fairly easy lead. That race looks good now that the winner crossed the wire first in the Derby and third place finisher Code of Honor came back to run third and placed second.

The colt has not yet run fast enough to win but looks to be sitting on a good one. His career best number came two back in the Fountain of Youth (G2) where he made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot, beaten 3/4 of a length by Code of Honor. The third-place finisher in that race was Vekoma, who won the Blue Grass (G2) next out while fifth place finisher Global Campaign won the Peter Pan (G3) at Belmont Park in his next outing.

The $410,000 Keeneland purchase has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. He is by Tapit out of the stakes winner My Conquestadory ($502,526), the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland in 2013. It looks as if the pace should be honest and that should set things up for him.

Improbable (+250)

The Baffert trainee stalked the early pace in the slop in the Derby, had to wait for some running room briefly losing a spot or two on the far turn and had a clear path in the stretch but could only make a mild bid to finish fifth (placed fourth), beaten 3 1/4 lengths.

The colt is now 0 for 3 this year and snapped a six-race winning streak for the Kentucky Derby favorite. Nobody is better at bringing runners back in two weeks from the Derby to the Preakness than Baffert. As an added plus this colt picks up Mike Smith in the irons. He is a logical threat with his best, but his price may end up on the light side.

Wagering on the Race

I am going to play an exacta and trifecta with War of Will and Bourbon War on top of Improbable, Anothertwistoffate and Owendale.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Odds as of May 18 at Bovada. Article written May 18

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While the $1.5-million Preakness Stakes (G1) field will not include Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Country House or Maximum Security, who crossed the wire first but was disqualified, expect to see a large group compete in the second jewel of racing’s Triple Crown.

As of Monday, there were a dozen runners being pointed toward the race, led by the Bob Baffert-trained Improbable, one of four contenders that ran in the Run for the Roses.

The latest addition to the race is Market King, who was 11th in the Toyota Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland in his last outing. His connections announced on Sunday they would point the son of Into Mischief toward the Preakness.

His best effort in stakes company was a third in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park on March 16 behind Omaha Beach and Game Winner. The colt is listed at +2000 in early Preakness Stakes wagering at Bovada.

The colt is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Preakness six times, the last coming with Oxbow in 2013.

Improbable the Preakness favorite at +175

Improbable crossed the wire fifth and was placed fourth thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security and is the early betting favorite for the Preakness at Bovada at +175, up from +150 last week.

The colt was the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby, ending a six-year streak of winning favorites.

Baffert is tied with Robert Wyndham Walden for saddling the most Preakness winners at seven. Walden won his last with Refund in 1888. Baffert won last year’s edition with Justify, who went on to win the Triple Crown.

Three other runners will wheel back out of the Derby and compete on Saturday — War of Will (seventh), Win Win Win (ninth) and Bodexpress (13th).

War of Will was forced out by Maximum Security at the five-sixteenths in the Derby and weakened to finish 4 ½ lengths behind. The colt is taking action and is the current second choice in early Preakness wagering at +275.

The Mark Casse trainee won the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2) to start his 2019 campaign, then failed to fire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his final prep for Louisville.

Alwaysmining has posted six straight wins

There are eight new shooters to the Triple Crown and Alwaysmining is taking the most action among the group in early Preakness betting at +650.

The Kelly Rubley trainee has reeled off six wins in a row, all at Laurel Park. He won the Federico Tesio on April 20 by 11 lengths in his last start.

Next among the newcomers in early betting is Bourbon War at +700. The colt was fourth in the Florida Derby (G1) in his last outing and did not earn enough points to make it into the Kentucky Derby field.

Post positions for the Preakness will be drawn on Wednesday afternoon.

Preakness Stakes betting trends and facts

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada. Article written May 13

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While the debate over the disqualification of Maximum Security in the Kentucky Derby (G1) just seems to roar on, the second jewel of the Triple Crown is just over a week away and Improbable has emerged as the early betting favorite.

The Bob Baffert trainee was sent off as the betting favorite in the Kentucky Derby and crossed the wire fifth, getting elevated to fourth after the stewards took Maximum Security down for causing interference nearing the five-sixteenths pole.

Improbable became the first Derby favorite not to adorn roses since I’ll Have Another in 2012, snapping a six-year streak of favorites winning.

Improbable has new rider for preakness

In the latest Preakness Stakes betting odds at Bovada, Improbable is the early favorite at +150.

Baffert saddled the winner last year in Justify, who went on to sweep the Triple Crown. Baffert has won the Preakness seven times, matched only by R. Wyndham Walden, whose last of his seven wins in the Preakness was in 1888.

Improbable was second in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) in his two races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. He will get a new rider in Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.

War of Will is the current second choice in early Preakness wagering at Bovada at +250. The Mark Casse trainee took the worst of the incident in the Derby and weakened to finish eighth, placed seventh via the disqualification.

Only two other Kentucky Derby alums are wheeling back in two weeks for the Preakness, ninth-place finisher Win Win Win and 13th-place finisher Bodexpress.

Alwaysmining, Bourbon War co-third favorites at +650

Of the newcomers to the Triple Crown, Alwaysmining and Bourbon War share co-third choice honors at +650.

Alwaysmining has won six races in a row, winning the Federico Tesio at Laurel Park in his last outing by 11 lengths. The colt is trained by Kelly Rubley and will be ridden by Daniel Centeno.

The Mark Hennig-trained Bourbon War was second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and fourth in the Florida Derby (G1) in his last two starts. His regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard.

Anothertwistafate is next in early Preakness betting at +800. The colt has landed in the exacta in five of his six career starts. He ran second in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland in his last outing. Trainer Blaine Wright will give jockey Jose Ortiz a leg up.

Completing the probable field are Lexington winner Owendale (+1000), Blue Grass (G2) third place finisher Signalman (+1200) and Oaklawn Park Invitational winner Laughing Fox (+1400).

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Check out  Bovada for a complete list of prop and matchup wagering on the Preakness Stakes.

Odds as of May 10 at Bovada. Article written May 9

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*Code of Honor is out as of May 7th, 2019.

The honor of early betting favorite for the Preakness Stakes (G1) does not go to the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, but instead to the runner up, who is not yet confirmed for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Code of Honor crossed the wire third at 14/1 in the Run for the Roses, placed second thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security and has opened up as the betting favorite at +275 in early Preakness Stakes wagering at Bovada.

His trainer Shug McGaughey said a final decision on the Preakness status of Code of Honor will come once the colt gets settled down in his stall at Belmont Park. McGaughey did rule out the Belmont Stakes as an option for the colt.

Country House was placed first by the stewards in the Kentucky Derby and his $132.40 payoff for a $2 win ticket was the second highest in the 145 runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Only Donerail, who returned $184.90 in 1913 paid more.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won his first Kentucky Derby, the colt is the second choice in early Preakness betting at Bovada at +300.

Mott also trains co-third choice Tacitus, who was placed third in the Derby. It seems unlikely Mott would bring the colt back in two weeks to take on his stablemate.

War of Will is the co-third choice at +400. The colt took the worst of it in the Derby and after being interfered with by Maximum Security he backed up to finish eighth and was placed seventh in the official order after the disqualification.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert announced on Monday that Improbable would be heading to the Preakness. The colt crossed the wire fifth and placed fourth in the Derby as the betting favorite at +400.

The colt ended a streak of six straight wins by the betting favorite in the first jewel of the Triple Crown. The colt is +600 in the early Preakness betting at Bovada.

There was no word from the Baffert barn on Game Winner, last year’s champion juvenile who was fifth in the Derby. The colt is the current fifth choice at +500.

The shortest price at Bovada of the horses that were not in the Derby is Anothertwistafate at +900. The colt was second in the Sunland Derby (G3) and Lexington Stakes (G3) in his last two starts.

There were only eight starters in last year’s Preakness. It looks as if this year’s field will be larger, possibly as many as 12 or 13. The maximum is 14 starters in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Check out  Bovada for a complete list of prop and matchup wagering on the Preakness Stakes.

Preakness Stakes betting trends and facts

Odds courtesy of Bovada 

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Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Justify will face seven foes in the $1.5-million Preakness Stakes (G1) on Saturday and his bandwagon is about as full as it can get.

The Bob Baffert trainee is now at -225 in early Preakness betting odds at Bovada, a strong favorite to continue his Triple Crown bid.

Baffert has brought four Derby winners to Baltimore, and he has been perfect with them, including American Pharoah, who went on to become the first Triple Crown winner in nearly four decades in 2015.

Can history repeat itself so soon?

Good Magic second in Preakness odds

Horseplayers certainly think so, making Justify a solid favorite with Derby runner-up Good Magic the second choice in early Preakness wagering at Bovada at odds of +325.

There are two other Derby alums seeking to pull off the upset, sixth-place finisher Bravazo (+1800) and eighth-place finisher Lone Sailor (+2000).

Among the new shooters, Quip is the shortest price at +1400, the third choice in early Preakness wagering at Bovada. The colt had enough Derby points to earn a trip to Louisville, but his connections elected to hold him out for the Preakness.

The colt won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and ran second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his last two starts. The colt is owned in part by WinStar and China Horse Club, the same owners as Justify.

Diamond King trainer won 2004 Preakness

Diamond King won the local prep, the Federico Tesio, and is listed at odds of +2000. He is trained by John Servis, who trained 2004 Preakness winner Smarty Jones.

The other new shooters are long shots Tenfold at +3300 and Sporting Chance at +4000.

Bovada is offering a wide variety of prop bets including what place Justify will finish. While he is -225 to win, he can be bet to run second at +250 and third at +500. If you think he will finish eighth and last, his odds are +3000.

Horseplayers can also wager on the margin of victory of the winner. The odds on one length or more is -250 and less than one length is currently listed at +200.

Check out Bovada for a complete list of prop and matchup wagering on the Preakness Stakes.

Preakness Stakes betting trends and facts

Odds as of May 19 at Bovada. Article written on May 17.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

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Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Justify will be a strong favorite in the upcoming Preakness Stakes (G1) on May 19 as it appears he will face a small field that may include just a couple of runners he beat in Louisville.

The Bob Baffert trainee is currently listed at -200 in early Preakness betting odds at Bovada.

Justify is listed at odds of +140 to win the Triple Crown, with “no winner” coming back at -185.

In the Derby, the colt prompted the early pace of Promises Fulfilled, took command and then held off the stalking Good Magic by 2 ½ lengths, returning his backers $7.80 and completing a $2 exacta that paid $69.60.

Good Magic just held on to the runner-up spot over the late-running Audible, who came up the rail with a rally to finish third.

Good Magic’s trainer Chad Brown did not rule out coming back in two weeks in the Preakness, which surprised many.

Good Magic second in odds at +450

After the race, Brown said his colt would not run in the Preakness but he changed his tune by Sunday morning, leaving the door open for a Preakness start.

“I’ve got an idea, but I’ve got to wait until I talk to the owners,” Brown said. “I’ll get their thoughts on it and let them weigh in on it. I’ll tell them what I see and see what they want to do. I think for me to rule it out this morning would be foolish. I don’t want to get into a situation where I commit to one way or another and I change my mind. I want to give myself a little room to really observe the horse. The horse will tell us.”

The colt is listed at +450 in early Preakness wagering odds at Bovada.

Others that Bovada has listed that ran in the Derby include My Boy Jack at +1600, but his trainer Keith Desormeaux said the colt, who ran a good fifth and took lots of action, bet down from his +3000 morning line to +700, would not head to Baltimore.

The Bill Mott-trained Hofburg, who was seventh in the Derby, is not likely to wheel back in the Preakness.

One that will is the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Bravazo, who was sixth in the Derby at +6600. His Preakness odds stand at +2500.

Lukas said he also is pointing Sporting Chance to the Preakness and is at odds of +3300. The colt ran fourth in the Pat Day Mile (G3) on the Derby Day undercard.

Diamond King is the third choice in Preakness betting at +1600 and will start. The colt won the Federico Tesio at Laurel Park April 21.

ownership could complicate Quip entry

Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Quip, who was the runner-up in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his last start, skipped the Derby to wait for the Preakness despite having enough points to get into the Run for the Roses.

However, he is owned by China Horse Club, WinStar and SF Racing. WinStar owns part of Justify, which could complicate things.

WinStar CEO Elliott Walden said, “I hesitate to say right now. We’ll see how the week plays out. My first inclination is to go ahead and run him, but we need to talk to our partners and see. But we’d set the horse up to run in the Preakness and he worked very well on Thursday.

“If Justify is supposed to win the Triple Crown, he’ll beat Quip,” Walden added. “I just think you try to manage your horses the best you can and that it’s the right thing for Quip. Not making a final decision today. The horse is doing really well, and we’ll see.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher had four runners in the Derby, but he tends to skip the Preakness and await the Belmont. Bovada has Noble Indy at +6600. The colt ran 17th in the Derby and it seems doubtful he is headed to Pimlico.

We could see a few additions or subtractions before the end of this week.

Odds as of May 17 at Bovada. Article written on May 7.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.